Draft prep: Finders Keepers

Off the top of my head, here are some great keepers in life: Jessica Alba, "The Godfather" boxed set on DVD, pepperoni pizza from Anthony's and a 1968 Topps Nolan Ryan rookie card.

But when you are talking about Fantasy Baseball keepers, there are a number of things you want to keep in mind.

The difference between drafting in a yearly league and a keeper league isn't huge, but you certainly want to keep next year in mind as you contemplate a 36-year-old slugger and a developing 24-year-old hitter. But you can't completely throw away this year in an attempt to gather a stud group of keepers -- unless you feel like having a very boring summer. But what's the best distinction between grabbing someone for now, as opposed to someone for later? We'll help you try and sort it all out in this column.

Keeper league differences

Is your league a keeper league -- or a dynasty league? The difference between the two is that in a keeper league, you are only allowed to hold over a small portion of your roster, like five to 10 players. This makes a big difference in your strategies, since a player that is two or three years away from making it to the pros is now much more valuable, since he will stay on your dynasty roster, rather than being thrown back on as a worse-than-10th keeper option.

For instance, in a 10-keeper mixed league, you'll throw back someone like Texas' catching prospect Taylor Teagarden. But with 27 homers in the minors last year, he makes for a nice hitting dynasty catcher that could pay dividends in a couple years.

Another factor to weigh in on is that you want to picture something like a five-year window with many of your players. Will Player A be as good on average over the next five seasons as Player B, who might be better just in Year 1?

There's also a big difference between keeper leagues that allow, say, five keepers as opposed to 10. With 10, you can gamble on someone like Joba Chamberlain, even though he might pitch in a setup role initially with the Yankees before starting or closing. But in a five-player keeper league, you need stars that help you right now. You can't afford to wait on talent and opportunity, since the top 60 players (12 teams, five keepers each) will be gone by the time your draft starts.

So for the sake of argument, the table on the right is for a 10-player keeper league. This is also not taking into account any keeper leagues that make the cost of holding over such a player, worth a draft pick higher than the last in the draft. In other words, by holding over 10 players, you are just giving up draft picks at the back of your draft. But some leagues require you to give up the round you initially drafted said player. Obviously, those values are much different than what we can explain to you here. If you took Daisuke Matsuzaka in the fifth round last year (which would cost you a fifth-rounder this year), then someone like Chad Billingsley, who you might have drafted in the 23rd round, is a better value as a 23rd-round keeper.

Some keeper leagues also challenge owners with different twists. There are leagues that make you give up a draft pick that is three rounds higher than the pick you originally drafted a player in. Then the next year, it's another round higher, and so forth. So say you grabbed Russell Martin in the seventh round in last year's drafts, that means he will cost you a fourth rounder this season and a third rounder next year. At some point, he's going to outgrow his value, costing you too much (a first rounder?), so you throw him back.

Other league's rules say you can't hold over a player that's drafted in the first five rounds, which usually makes sure that stars are thrown back in the draft each season. What happens there usually, is the first pick in the sixth round becomes even more valuable than a late third-rounder in many cases. And the fifth round could end up being the "old dudes" round, where players that aren't great keepers -- but still solid hitters -- get selected for a one-year mercenary tour.

Judging keepers at different positions

Keepers are worth different values usually depending on their positions. For the most part, young, powerful middle infielders are the cream of the crop, but let's see if we can break down the who's and why's for keepers at all the positions. You also want to remember some players that might become eligible at a more (or less) valuable position, than the one they currently are in. For instance, if B.J. Upton loses his 2B-eligibility this season, which is likely, then his keeper stock drops some. Or if Billy Butler, currently only DH-eligible, gains first base eligibility, he gains value.

Catchers: Since most leagues start two catchers, good hitting catchers like the M&M&M&M boys (Victor Martinez, Russell Martin, Joe Mauer and Brian McCann) have more value to a team than some power-hitting corner infielders. Young catchers usually don't develop for a couple years, despite what McCann has done, so beware of investing too highly on Jarrod Saltalamacchia and J.R. Towles. Since catchers are needed more for their defense than their bat, they don't develop at the plate usually until later in their careers. But outside of the Big Four, catchers don't make for great keepers because you can fill in later in drafts without much problem. The 20th-rated catcher is usually not too far off from the 12th-rated catcher. Young players to keep in mind: Jeff Clement, SEA; Chris Iannetta, COL; Jeff Mathis, LAA; Curtis Thigpen, TOR; Taylor Teagarden, TEX.

First basemen: Power and youth already propagate a large portion of the first base position to begin with. Albert Pujols' admission that he is still unable to straighten his right arm all the way because of elbow problems is dropping him in Fantasy drafts. But surgery can fix that, and even if he misses some time this year, he's still the best power/average combo for the next five years. Prince Fielder beats out Ryan Howard in keeper value, since Howard is older than Pujols because the Phillies waited so long to bring him up. Justin Morneau's Fantasy value is down this season, but he's coming off a down year, so keeper leagues drafting him this season should get a bargain. Young players to keep in mind: Michael Aubrey, CLE; Daric Barton, OAK; Jordan Brown, CLE; Ryan Garko, CLE; Dan Johnson, OAK; Joe Koshansky, COL; Steven Pearce, PIT; Joey Votto, CIN.

Second basemen: The departure of Alfonso Soriano from this position last year hasn't made a huge dent in its depth, mostly because so many players have joined the top 10 that weren't here just two seasons ago. Chase Utley is easily the best 2B in any type of league, yearly or keeper, but Robinson Cano and Brandon Phillips have at least three years on him in age. Upton's time here could be limited, as is Brian Roberts, but for different reasons. Roberts hit the 50-SB mark, but speedy older guys lose value quickly if they can't hit for power. Ian Kinsler could be a top-three player at this position by season's end because of his power/speed combo -- and he's just 25 years old. Jose Lopez has been playing in the majors for 17 years it seems like, but he's just 24 years old. Young players to keep in mind: Matt Antonelli, SD; Erick Aybar, LAA; Josh Barfield, CLE; Asdrubal Cabrera, CLE; Jose Lopez, SEA; Eric Patterson, CHC; Ian Stewart, COL.

Shortstops: The Big Three of Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins headline a much deeper position than it was even in the A-Rod/Nomar/Jeter days of the mid-90s. All three can get you a combination of 70-80 homers/steals. Jeter's the old man still producing, despite Miguel Tejada being two years his junior. Hardy has to prove he can hit for power consistently (18 HR in first half of '07, just eight in the second half). Troy Tulowitzki slugged .531 in the second half of his rookie season and a .300 BA/30 HR season is on the horizon. Despite plenty of yearly-league talent, there are not a lot of decent, young (under 27?) keepers outside of that top five. Young players to keep in mind: Erick Aybar, LAA; Joaquin Arias, TEX; Reid Brignac, TB; Kevin Frandsen, SF; Brent Lillibridge, ATL; Jed Lowrie, BOS; Brandon Wood, LAA.

Third basemen: Keeper-wise, it's hard to argue against the order of yearly league rankings at this position. Would you rather have Wright, Cabrera or Braun over A-Rod -- a player that will eventually overtake Barry Bonds for the career homers title? A-Rod is 32, coming off a career year, playing for a championship contending team and he has a long-term power goal to shoot for. I still think he's better over the next five years (on average) than the three players that follow him. The fact that those other three players are 25 years old or younger would make me consider trading A-Rod for one of them plus another player. If you miss out on those four guys, Ryan Zimmerman is just 23 years old and he's about to hit in a non-pitcher's park for the first time. Young players to keep in mind: Josh Fields, CHW; Chase Headley, SD; Kevin Kouzmanoff, SD; Andy LaRoche, LAD; Ian Stewart, COL; Neil Walker, PIT; Brandon Wood, LAA.

Outfielders: This position is always deep, but for keepers, it has a great group of young hitters that will pepper the top three rounds of drafts for at least the next five years. Grady Sizemore has the perfect keeper combination of power, speed and youth (25 years old). Matt Holliday is just 28 years old and he might not steal many bags, but he's consistent everywhere else. Upton overtakes his 2B-to-OF predecessor, Alfonso Soriano, because he is nine years younger. Vladimir Guerrero is just 32 years old. Carl Crawford could be roaming center or left field in Yankee Stadium within the next half-decade. Curtis Granderson is seven years younger than his outfield-mate Magglio Ordonez. Some veterans that got bumped from this top-20 list because of their age include Torii Hunter, Manny Ramirez and Ichiro Suzuki. Young players to keep in mind: Michael Bourn, PHI; Jay Bruce, CIN; Travis Buck, OAK; Chris Duncan, STL; Jacoby Ellsbury, BOS; Andre Ethier, LAD; Josh Fields, CHW; Josh Hamilton, TEX; Adam Jones, SEA; Matt Kemp, LAD; Chris Marrero, WAS; Cameron Maybin, FLA; Lastings Milledge, WAS; Felix Pie, CHC; Colby Rasmus, STL; Travis Snider, TOR; Justin Upton; ARI.

Starting pitchers: Youth has overtaken the superstar veterans that used to own the top 10 at this position as recently as three years ago. Players like Bartolo Colon, Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux, Pedro Martinez, Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson are later picks now in keeper and yearly leagues. While those guys are among the nearly forgotten, there's a whole other group of former studs that have been hampered with injuries, including Rich Harden, Mark Prior and Ben Sheets. Johan Santana goes from the AL, where DH's and high ERA's are aplenty, to the NL, where he'll face pitchers at the plate, while pitching in a big ballpark. Jake Peavy and Brandon Webb fill out a great top-shelf in the NL, while Josh Beckett is now the best Fantasy pick in AL play. There is a nice selection of youth at this position, helped by the stellar MLB draft class of 2004: Homer Bailey, Yovani Gallardo, Philip Hughes, Justin Verlander and Jered Weaver (with Huston Street as a first-round closer!) Sprinkle in the talents of Chad Billingsley, Matt Cain, Fausto Carmona, Jeff Francis, Cole Hamels, Felix Hernandez, Scott Kazmir, Tim Lincecum, Francisco Liriano, John Maine and James Shields, and you have the makings of a very strong keeper position for the next five years. Young players to keep in mind: Brett Anderson, OAK; Brian Bannister, KC; Clay Buchholz, BOS; Carlos Carrasco, PHI; Wade Davis, TB; Matt Garza, TB; Ubaldo Jimenez, COL; Jair Jurrjens, ATL; Ian Kennedy, NYY; Clayton Kershaw, LAD; Jon Lester, BOS; Jacob McGee, TB; Adam Miller, CLE; Franklin Morales, COL; Scott Olsen, FLA; David Price, TB; Anthony Reyes, STL; Ian Snell, PIT.

Relief pitchers: This is not a position of youth. Of the top 10 closers in our yearly rankings, five of them are 31 years or older. This position is the toughest to predict in terms of keeper value, since managers will switch closers on a whim and they aren't normally groomed as such in the minors. Jonathan Papelbon is our top closer in yearly and keeper rankings -- yet he was brought up as a starter in the minors. Instead of looking in the minors, a lot of times the best closers are developing their tools in middle relief in the bullpen. They usually need a dominant fastball and at least one other pitch that they can get outs with. They also need a ferocious attitude, which is why I have big, bad Jonathan Broxton ranked here, despite his current role as Takashi Saito's setup man. Chad Billingsley and Brett Myers are not ranked here, despite being RP eligible, because they are expected to start in the rotation this season. Young players to keep in mind: Matt Capps, PIT; Jim Hoey, BAL; Jonathan Meloan, LAD; Tony A. Pena, ARI; Joakim Soria, KC; Brian Wilson, SF.

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