Chances are, someone other Mike Trout is going to finish as the No. 1 hitter in Fantasy baseball this season. As brilliant as he is, Trout has only finished as the No. 1 hitter in Roto leagues in two of his five full seasons in the majors, though no player has topped him twice in that span.

With that in mind, this preseason series is going to look at the seven players with the best chance to finish ahead of Trout in 2017. We'll look at the path that could take them to the No. 1 spot, as well as the potential pitfalls along the way.

Let's look at Nolan Arenado's chances.

Path to Glory

It's hard to write about anyone who plays in Coors without talking about geography first, but doing so would sell Arenado awfully short. Sure, he benefits from Coors, but not quite as much as you might expect. As one of our podcast listeners -- tip of the hat to Thomas -- pointed out, Arenado doesn't really take advantage of Coors' biggest advantage -- the way it massively inflates hitters' BABIP.

Looking at some other great Rockies' sluggers, Todd Helton had a career .342 BABIP at Coors, while Arenado's teammates Corey Dickerson (.342) and Carlos Gonzalez (.357) totally took advantage of Coors' batting average inflating ways. However, Arenado has just a .305 career BABIP at home, the fourth-lowest for any player with at least 500 plate appearances at Coors.

Arenado is always going to tend to be a low-BABIP player, just because he puts so many balls in the air, and the fact that he strikes out so rarely makes him less likely to go through one of those major outlier seasons we see on balls in play. However, Helton and Troy Tulowitzki both maintained career BABIP marks in the .340 range, while putting 40 percent of their batted balls in the air, so that doesn't necessarily preclude Arenado from having a big season like that. If he can get to the .330 range on balls in play, you're looking at a potential batting champion, with absolutely monstrous numbers possible.

We shouldn't expect it, of course. After 2,000-plus plate appearances, Arenado's success on balls on play has barely budged. But if you want to know how Arenado could leapfrog Trout, there's your answer. He's already an incredible run producer, accounting for a whopping 249 runs and RBI last year. And his combination of a low strikeout rate and legitimate 40-homer power makes Arenado a pretty good bet to hit in the high .200's, even without help from the BABIP Gods.

Production fluctuates from year to year, but Arenado has put up pretty close to identical numbers in each of the past two seasons. Playing in the most beneficial hitting environment shouldn't be held against him, because the chances of him leaving there this season are close to nil. Arenado is one of the safest options you can look to in the first half of the first round, and there's a chance Coors helps him out even more this season than normal.

What could derail him?

Of course, Arenado has just as good a chance to post a .260 BABIP as a .330, so any fluctuation isn't necessarily going to help him. If Arenado gets under a few more balls, leading to more infield flyballs and warning track shots, it's not that hard to see him hitting .270, with the rest of his numbers taking a similar hit.

But it's pretty hard to see. Arenado's ability to create power without sacrificing contact really makes him stand out, and the Rockies' lineups should only be better this year than last, with the addition of Ian Desmond and a full season from Trevor Story. The combination of volume from playing in an offense that turns over constantly, along with his very safe skill set, makes Arenado the safest bet short of Mike Trout or Mookie Betts.

Chances he finishes as the No. 1 player: 10 percent

Arenado isn't that far off of Trout in points leagues, thanks to his incredible run-production numbers. He doesn't garner the same excitement as some other players, but Arenado is about as good as they come in Fantasy. Coors is a heck of a safety net.