Everyone's got strong opinions, and our readers are no exception. I decided to take to twitter this morning to see how people are feeling as we reach the season's quarter mark:
I'll judge the hotness of each take on a scale of 1-5, ranging the totally reasonable to the totally ridiculous. Let's see where you guys are at:
Heat level: 4
I don't agree with this one, but I love the willingness to go out on a ledge. On the surface, Dallas Keuchel is certainly tapping into his Cy Young form in the early going, but there are certainly warning signs here; a 3.40 FIP most notably, but also unsustainably low BABIP and unsustainably high strand rate. There is definitely regression coming for him, though a stretch like the worst of his 2016 campaign seems unlikely.
Heat level: 4
The "if he can stay healthy" caveat makes this seem much more reasonable than it is, but we can hardly just hand-wave that away. Alex Wood missed time with elbow soreness last year, and had a left forearm strain back in 2014, and has never thrown more than 190 innings in a major-league season, so health certainly seems to be a fair question, and that alone adds a tick or two to the heat.
Heat level: 3
Billy Hamilton is an extremely hard player to judge, because his value is so context dependent. He can single-handedly take a team from last place to middle of the pack in stolen bases, and there just isn't anyone else in baseball who can impact a single category like that. On the other hand, if you already have enough steals to compete in that format, his value is a lot more limited, because he really doesn't contribute anywhere else. At this point it's a win if he's not actively killing your batting average. Hamilton won't be a first-round pick, but there's a ton of value in drafting him and knowing you really might not need to worry about steals at any other point in the draft.
Heat level: 2
We may be at the point with Jean Segura where Daniel Murphy was a year ago: the previous year's change was so abrupt that it's hard to buy, but it's harder to dismiss in Year 2. Segura has largely sustained his improvements from 2016, continuing to hit for power with a hard-hit rate 10 points higher than his 2015 mark. Is Segura a top-20 pick next March? Maybe he isn't that high, but he is cementing himself as an early-round pick.
Heat level: 3
This is a good one. Rodgers, the No. 3 pick in the 2015 draft, has been absolutely on fire to open the season in High-A Lancaster, hitting .418/.435/.684 in his first 19 games. He is building off his 19-homer campaign in 2016, and looks every bit like the elite prospect he is. That he has done that despite coming off a wrist injury that delayed his season makes it even more impressive, even if the hitter-friendly California League should temper expectations somewhat.
Rodgers being ready by next June is an aggressive timetable, but it might not be too aggressive, especially if he works his way to Double-A this season. The question at that point will be more about whether Trevor Story is hitting enough to keep him at bay. That seemed like a ridiculous question two months ago, but with Story's strikeout rate nearing 40 percent, it's not totally crazy anymore. Story's flaws might be too big for his strengths to overcome, despite his success last season.
Heat level: 2
At the start of the season, Michael Conforto needed to make sure the Mets had no excuse to keep him out of the lineup. Mission accomplished, as even the Mets can't justify sitting a player with a .343/.430/.686 slash line when Yoenis Cespedes comes back. With Jay Bruce also hitting well, it will be interesting to see how they configure their outfield, but there's no way Conforto hasn't earned an everyday job in some capacity.
As for whether Conforto finishes as a top-10 outfielder? Well, I'll sell at that price, but if you set it at top-20, I might buy. He's hitting the ball hard all over the field, with a 41.8 percent hard-hit rate, while cutting his strikeout rate and increasing his walk rate for the third season in a row. There is still the question of whether Conforto can do more than hold his own against lefties, but at this point, he is forcing the issue, and it's going to be hard to justify sitting him moving forward.
Heat level: 5
Carlos Gonzalez has started to heat up in recent games, though with no homers in 14 straight entering Week 7 (May 15-21), I understand the frustration. However, on this same day in 2015, Gonzalez was hitting just .194/.261/.324, with just three homers and a 24.3 percent strikeout rate, before going off for 37 homers in his final 122 games. It's possible Gonzalez is just done, but I'm not ready to write off a streaky player just because he had a bad streak to open a season. If you're selling, I'm buying.
Heat level: 4
Miguel Sano isn't a .300 hitter. That alone makes this take too hot. He just strikes out too much to sustain a healthy average. His current .297 batting average is only possible due to an unsustainably high .434 BABIP. However, that might be the only flaw in his game at this point because the 24-year-old has tapped into his inner Chris Davis/Giancarlo Stanton, absolutely crushing the ball all over the field. Sano probably hurts your batting average too much to justify a second-round pick, but his elite batted-ball profile should make him one of the most valuable power hitters in the game moving forward.
Heat level: 4
I asked whether expectations were too high for Kyle Schwarber earlier this month, and I think it's still a fair question to ask. Unlike Sano, Schwarber simply isn't hitting the ball well enough to make up for his flaws. Schwarber has a decent but not great 33.3 percent hard-hit rate, to go with his decent .164 ISO, so it's not like you can really say he's been a victim of bad luck in that regard. Schwarber will definitely hit better than this moving forward, but it's fair to wonder if he can be the must-start Fantasy option we were all hoping for, especially if he doesn't get catcher eligibility.