You may have noticed that pitching has become less bankable of late. The 4.03 ERA that the sport enjoyed over the first three months has given way to a 4.24 ERA here in July, a consequence of the ball suddenly beginning to carry better (for reasons we can only theorize).
So after half a season of pitcher surplus, where seemingly anyone we put in our lineups was good enough to keep us afloat, we're suddenly having to once again familiarize ourselves with the different gradations at starting pitcher. And as it turns out, we could use an infusion of pitching talent -- as in actual talent and not some goofy-ball sleight of hand.
The good news is that this very week, three pitchers with stardom in their past -- Clayton Kershaw, Kodai Senga, and Robbie Ray -- are poised to make their season debut, having recovered from some injury or another. Meanwhile, a fourth, Jeffrey Springs, is likely just a week away. It's a fortuitous development at the most opportune time, but will it be an actual cure for what ails us?
The knee-jerk response is normally "yes, of course." What's been good will be good again. But that's not how things have gone for some of the other pitchers who recently returned from season-long injuries. Max Scherzer (back surgery) just left his last start with arm fatigue and hasn't come close to his usual dominance through six turns. Gavin Williams (elbow inflammation) has seemingly abandoned his slider while revealing nothing else with the same bite. Shane Baz (Tommy John surgery) isn't getting the usual results on his secondary pitches and doesn't seem to be in command of his arsenal either.
The activation of those three was hotly anticipated, with big returns promised for the Fantasy Baseballers who stashed them, but the end result has been disappointment. And you could lump in Gerrit Cole with them, though he seems to be back to form finally.
That last point is worth stressing because it could just be that these pitchers need more time to regain their footing. Rest assured, I'm not writing off Williams or Baz forever, but we're nearly two-thirds of the way through this season now. Time is in short supply.
No, the infusion we're asking for is an immediate one. Anything that takes a month to develop is a month too long, and given the disappointments we've seen to this point, I'm wondering if that knee-jerk response -- i.e., "yes, of course" -- is still the going one.
So what's the proper valuation for these pitchers returning from injuries? Might there be a buy opportunity here or a sell opportunity there? I'll go through them individually, but broadly speaking, I think the best way to approach them is like you would a top prospect call-up: expect little but hope for lots. To put it more practically, you should treat them as if you just plucked them off the waiver wire but also as if you wouldn't dream of putting them back on it ... yet.
As you'll see, some remain on the waiver wire in a large number of leagues, which is why we're probably better off assessing them on an individual level. I've listed them not by upside but by who I think is most likely to have a substantive impact moving forward (while acknowledging that you're taking your chances with all four).
Expected back Thursday
I'm putting Kershaw No. 1 here because ... he's Clayton freakin' Kershaw, a pitcher of legendary status whose few failures in this game have been confined to the postseason. Only once since his rookie season as he had an ERA over 3.03, and he's fallen well short of that mark the last two years, going 25-8 with a 2.37 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and 9.6 K/9. What's made him frustrating in recent years is his sporadic availability due to all manner of injuries (back, shoulder, biceps, elbow -- you name it), but no matter how unfavorable the prognosis has been, he's always come back and done his usual Clayton Kershaw thing. Granted, this will be his first time coming back from shoulder surgery, which is more likely to have deleterious effects, but he had a stretch last year where he was averaging 88 mph on his fastball with no real loss of effectiveness. The man is simply unshakeable, so I'm not sure it matters that his velocity has been down about 1 mph across the board at Triple-A. We've seen him overcome bigger deficits in the past.
Expected back Friday
Kodai Senga's injury was also to his shoulder, but without the need for surgery. Still, the repeated delays in his recovery are reason for pause, as are his reduced velocities on his Triple-A rehab assignment (about 1 mph on most pitches). His final rehab start was also his worst -- he allowed five earned runs on eight hits with three walks and one strikeout in three innings -- which may or may not mean anything, just like a spring training start. The 16 percent swinging-strike rate during his minor-league stint is reason to be encouraged, if nothing else. My biggest concern with Senga is that he's not yet a proven commodity even when healthy. His numbers as a rookie last year were enough to put him in the ace conversation for Fantasy, but his walks were debilitating at first and not exactly a strength at any point during the season. You could give him some wiggle room in April and May, but if he comes back from a lengthy IL stint walking a batter per inning with only two months to go, it'll be hard to keep the faith even if we come to learn in subsequent seasons that it's just a normal part of his process.
Expected back Wednesday
Robbie Ray will be the first of these four to return (by a day) and will also arrive with the most momentum, having allowed no runs on two hits with 16 strikeouts to three walks over 10 1/3 innings in his final two rehab starts. His rehab assignment lasted 10 appearances in all, and by the end of them, he was throwing just as hard as when we last saw him healthy in 2022. It was just one year before then that he won the AL Cy Young, leading the majors with 248 strikeouts. The strikeouts have been in ample supply throughout his career, but unfortunately, the hardware hasn't because of control and home run issues. The worry is the former for a pitcher coming back from Tommy John surgery, and just because it wasn't an issue for Ray in the minors doesn't mean it won't be in the majors. His history of volatility combined with the length of his absence makes for a particularly uncertain outcome, but the upside is as high as it gets.
Likely back next week
Jeffrey Springs is the least proven of all these pitchers, having only entered the starting rotation in 2022, but he was an immediate success then and looked like the best pitcher in baseball through three starts the following year, allowing one run on four hits with 24 strikeouts in 16 innings. He's nearing the end of the long road back from Tommy John surgery but has to make a 12th (and hopefully final) rehab start this week. That means he'll have one fewer turn to prove his viability in the majors, and as with all these pitchers, there's some question as to how viable he'll be. Command is often slow to return following Tommy John surgery, and while he's kept the walks to a minimum, he has been awfully hittable. Of even greater concern is that his velocity has dipped a couple miles per hour in his past few turns, which suggests he may be going through some sort of dead-arm phase that could keep him in the minors even longer. It may suggest even worse that, but I'll maintain a cheery outlook for now.
Four others with a ways to go
Jacob deGrom's Tommy John surgery came a little later than Ray's and Springs' last year, and as such, he's further behind in his rehab, having yet to make even one minor-league start. Given that Ray and Springs each needed 10-plus, it's possible that deGrom simply runs out of calendar, but as things stand, he's still working toward a return.
Tyler Mahle, who's also on the mend from Tommy John surgery, is more likely than deGrom to contribute for the Rangers this year, having already made four rehab starts (albeit brief ones). Of course, he's not nearly the pitcher deGrom is, being more of a borderline Fantasy asset even before the injury.
Ian Anderson has already been activated, actually, but was optioned to Triple-A Gwinnett as he continues to sort out his command following Tommy John surgery. Reports on his changeup have been positive, and a new opening has developed with Max Fried sidelined indefinitely by a nerve issue in his elbow. If nothing else, Anderson's progress is worth monitoring.
Luis Garcia already had a rehab assignment shut down and only recently began throwing off a mound after a three-week layoff. Whether he'll make it back from Tommy John surgery this year is in question now, and as with Mahle, the impact for Fantasy figures to be modest even if he does.