Happy Wednesday, everyone! We lead today off by discussing a recent prospect promotion that has caught our attention over at Fantasy Baseball Today -- Gavin Williams. With Williams set to make his Guardians debut, Chris Towers broke down everything you need to know about him -- you'll need this before shaping your free-agent bid for Williams. One point Towers made that stood out to me is that there's a path for Williams to find early Fantasy success similar to how Bryce Miller has found it: "The fastball will likely be the key to how high Williams' floor can be. He's thrown his four-seamer 62% of the time in Triple-A, and it's been an excellent pitch for him, with a very strong 31.7% whiff rate and 33.2% CSW%; however, as with many up-in-the-zone fastballs, he has had a tendency to get hit pretty hard (92.6 mph average exit velocity), and in the air (33.3% groundball rate), when he isn't getting whiffs, which could be an issue if his control issues follow him to the majors."
Speaking of Miller, Towers took a look behind the curtain to see if Miller was worth continuing to ride or might be a player you should look to sell high. You can find his analysis of Miller -- the "one trick pony" -- and how well that trick can play here. This part of Towers' analysis resonated with me and led me in one direction regarding sell high or hold on Miller: "He might just be an outlier, but Fantasy players generally shouldn't be in the business of betting on outliers. Miller looks to my eyes like a pretty clear sell-high candidate right now. That's not to say he can't succeed, either with his current approach or by making strides with his non-fastball pitches. But, right now, I'm inclined to be skeptical. There's obvious upside here, but I think there will be more struggles coming, and I'd be looking to move Miller for someone like Tyler Glasnow or Pablo Lopez, who I have a lot more faith in moving forward."
Before we dive into some of the more notable Fantasy takeaways from Tuesday, it's worth noting the Reds became the fourth team since 1900 with a 10-game winning streak after losing 100+ games the year before on Tuesday.
Now let's dive into some of the action from Tuesday:
Sound the alarm on Eovaldi?
During his Tuesday outing against the White Sox, Nathan Eovaldi struggled with diminished velocity across the board. His fastball was down by 1.9 MPH, the splitter dipped by 1.2 MPH, and the cutter saw a substantial decline of 3 MPH. Eovaldi's average fastball velocity of 93.8 MPH was his lowest of the season, indicating a potential issue. Despite a solid 2.80 ERA and 0.99 WHIP this season, Eovaldi has allowed five home runs in his past three starts, raising concerns for Fantasy managers. Monitoring his velocity moving forward will be crucial, as it has been a key factor in his success thus far. If you want to get aggressive, now might be an excellent time to trade Eovaldi. Sell high before the dip in velocity turns into a bigger issue.
Standout batters
Looking across the Tuesday landscape, these batters caught our attention:
- Ronald Acuña had a strong game, going 2 for 5 with an RBI and his 31st stolen base of the season.
- Austin Hays went 3 for 4, showcasing his power with two doubles and scoring two runs. Hays now leads the American League in batting average, hitting an impressive .327.
- Willson Contreras went 3 for 4 with two doubles and two RBIs. His notable hit was a double with an exit velocity of 113.7 MPH.
- Elly De La Cruz went 3 for 5 and launched his second home run of the season.
- Masataka Yoshida went 3 for 5 with his eighth home run, which had an exit velocity of 108.8 MPH and traveled 447 feet.
- Adolis Garcia had a 2-for-5 performance, including his 16th home run, which had an exit velocity of 112.1 MPH and traveled 395 feet.
- Ketel Marte continued his impressive hitting streak, going 3 for 5 with his 11th home run, falling just a triple short of hitting for the cycle.
- Fernando Tatis had a productive game, going 3 for 4 with his 15th home run of the season.
Detmers back?
Reid Detmers is starting to look like the promising pitcher we saw at the end of last season. In his matchup against the Dodgers, he tossed seven shutout innings, allowing only two hits, one walk, and striking out eight. Detmers has been impressive lately and is worth targeting via trade with more good innings on the horizon.
Players on the rebound
Scott White took a deeper dive into 14 players who are showing signs of life and what to make of them here.
Dylan Cease, SP, White Sox
From Scott: "Your own confidence level will depend on what you think it means for Dylan Cease to "bounce back." I always thought a repeat of 2022 was too much to ask, which is why he was among my preseason bust picks, but I never expected him to have an 11 percent swinging-strike rate through his first 12 starts. That's above-average at best. He needs to be among the best of the best bat-missers to get away with walking as many as he does, so I take solace in the fact that he has an 18 percent swinging-strike rate in the three starts depicted above."
Lance Lynn, SP, White Sox
From Scott: "You might say that an isolated good start merits a confidence rating of only one ball, but I'm giving Lance Lynn an extra half for two reasons. One is that I've long contended better days are ahead, as evidenced by his strikeout and whiff rates, and two is that the good start wasn't just good but historic. A 16-strikeout effort goes a long way toward relieving doubts, even if he entered with an ERA near 7.00, but I must confess that if he bombs next time out, we're probably back to square one."
Jake McCarthy, OF, Diamondbacks
From Scott: "Jake McCarthy was batting .143 when he was sent to the minors in late April and is batting.315 since returning in late May, which is reminiscent of him batting .228 when he was between the minors and majors last year compared to .302 when he was up for good. Of course, a common fallacy is that players will repeat the same pattern year after year in a game rife with irregularity, and I may be lavishing in that fallacy here myself. But the fact is that what he's doing now is more in line with what we thought he'd do from the start, so it's not a tough sell on me."
News and notes
- Aaron Boone said that Aaron Judge experienced "a little bit of a breakthrough" after his second PRP injection.
- Carlos Rodon recorded five strikeouts over three innings of one-run ball at Double-A Tuesday. He topped out around 94-95 MPH with the fastball.
- Julio Urias will make a rehab start at Single-A Sunday. He's been out since mid-May with a hamstring strain.
- Cedric Mullins began a rehab assignment Tuesday at Triple-A. He's been out since late May due to a right groin strain.
- Max Muncy has a chance to return off the IL this weekend.
- Bryan Reynolds was out of the lineup Tuesday due to lower back tightness but it's considered relatively minor.
- Sean Murphy has sat out two straight due to a tweak in his right hamstring.
- Jazz Chisholm started a rehab assignment at Triple-A Tuesday.
- Lance Lynn is likely to make his next start Saturday against the Red Sox. He was placed on the bereavement list Monday.
- Tim Anderson has missed three straight due to right shoulder soreness.
- Ryan Mountcastle also began a rehab assignment at Triple-A Tuesday. He's been out since last week with vertigo.
- As suspected, Louie Varland was optioned to Triple-A on Tuesday, likely to clear the way for Kenta Maeda.
- Eduardo Rodriguez will throw live batting practice Saturday. It will be the first time facing live hitters since he went on the IL late last month.
- Riley Greene did some straight-line running on the field Tuesday. He was still wearing an air cast to protect the stress fracture in his left fibula.
- JD Davis returned Tuesday after being held out of the starting lineup in five straight games.
- Tanner Houck will undergo surgery next week to repair his facial fracture. There's no timetable yet for his return.
- LaMonte Wade was scratched due to right side tightness.
- JP Crawford left Tuesday's game with a right shoulder contusion.
- Wil Myers was reinstated from the IL and designated for assignment.