94 days until Opening Day …
MLB teams love making moves on the weekend this offseason, it seems, so of course, we were going to get a slew of moves the weekend before Christmas -- and I'm not exaggerating when I say that 20% of the league got a new first baseman this weekend.
And it makes sense that so much of the league is looking for answers at that position because, as I pointed out in my State of the Position piece, first base is in a bad spot these days:
"But first basemen aren't quite mashing like they used to, are they? For every season from 2020 through 2023, first baseman collectively had at least a 110 wRC+, and only three times in 23 seasons in FanGraphs.com's database did first baseman hit to worse than a 110 mark. 2024 was, of course, one of those three seasons, with the 107 wRC+ first basemen put up in 2024 the worst of any season in at least the last 23."
While the first base dance makes for a nice storyline to build around, there was one non-1B piece of news from the weekend that I think could matter even more for Fantasy players. So, let's start with that before we get to the cold corner news:
Hot stove updates
Jesus Luzardo traded to the Phillies
We'll start with the non-first base news, and the Marlins found themselves in a tough spot with Luzardo. Given the direction the franchise is taking, a trade always seemed inevitable, but the question was whether they would move him in the offseason, coming off a hugely disappointing season, or try to let him rebuild his value before looking to make a move.
They ultimately opted to deal Luzardo now rather than run the risk of seeing his value crater further with another injury-plagued campaign. But the downside of that is, well, the return: They got Starlyn Caba, a 19-year-old, slick-fielding shortstop who hit .228/.385/.284 across the two lowest levels of the minors last season, and Emaarion Boyd, a 21-year-old outfielder who hit .239/.317/.331 in High-A. Both players have their believers – and Caba especially was viewed as a top-five prospect in the Phillies system despite the underwhelming production – but it's an underwhelming return for a pitcher as talented as Luzardo. And it reflects how much skepticism there rightly is around Luzardo at this point.
When Luzardo is right, he's a terrific pitcher, putting up a 3.48 ERA and 10.6 K/9 across 50 starts in 2022 and 2023. But in 2024, his velocity dropped about one mph, and he slumped to a 5.00 ERA while being limited to 66.2 innings – first missing time with left elbow tightness and then a stress reaction in his back. He missed time back in 2022 with a strained left forearm, as well, and has had Tommy John surgery and a rotator cuff strain in his history as well. Luzardo is certainly talented enough to pitch at the top of a very good Phillies rotation, but he's also thrown more than 130 innings just once in nine seasons since being drafted.
All that being said, I'm very much in on Luzardo for 2025, who looks like one of the most obviously undervalued pitchers in Fantasy – as I wrote in Friday's newsletter. His price will surely rise now that he's moving from a very bad Marlins team to one of the better ones in the majors in Philadelphia, even though it's a sizable park downgrade. Luzardo shouldn't be drafted as someone you can rely on, but as an upside pick in the later rounds, he still makes a ton of sense.
Alright, now let's get to the first base quadrille …
Christian Walker to the Astros
This is the biggest deal of them all, though even a three-year, $60 million deal feels pretty light for a player of Walker's caliber … until you remember he'll be 34 on Opening Day. That's not quite as old as Jose Abreu when he signed his three-year, $58.5 million deal a few years ago, but it's a little ominous, no?
To be fair, Walker has shown basically no signs of slipping yet and would have had his third straight 30-homer season in 2024 if not for an oblique injury that cost him about a month. His quality of contact remains as good as ever, with the only blemish on his record coming in the form of a marked increase in strikeout rate in 2025. There's some risk here, and this is a lineup downgrade going from Arizona to Houston, though it is at least a solid park upgrade. All in all, it's a pretty lateral move for Walker from a Fantasy perspective, assuming his skill set remains steady as he enters his mid-30s.
If it does, Walker should remain a must-start first baseman for Fantasy, and he's sure to be drafted like one. Walker will go off the board around the 100th pick in most drafts, though whether he will do so as the first option in his tier is an open question. I have it ranked that way, with Walker just ahead of Josh Naylor and Cody Bellinger in the tier after Pete Alonso comes off the board – likely 50 spots ahead of this group. Walker could have 35-homer upside as a right-handed power hitter in Houston, but the risk of some age-related decline should keep his price reasonable.
Which led to …
Josh Naylor to the Diamondbacks
Coming off a career-year, it makes sense that the Guardians would trade Naylor because that's how the Guardians operate. He's a fine player, but even in a career-best season in homers, RBI, and runs, Naylor was only worth between 1.5 and 2.3 wins, depending on which WAR calculation you choose to cite, and with free agency looming after the 2025 season, the Guardians were always going to at least see what they could get for him.
And what they could get for him was … Slade Cecconi and a Compensation Round B draft pick? Well, that feels awfully low, but Naylor might be one of those players who is just more valuable for Fantasy than in real life. Naylor is a solid player, but the Guardians aren't exactly in the business of paying eight figures for merely solid players. Naylor gets a significant lineup upgrade out of this move, though potentially also a significant park downgrade – Progressive Field in Cleveland played much more hitter-friendly for left-handed power in 2024, thanks to some changes to outfield stands that may have created a "wind tunnel" effect out to right. If that wasn't just a one-year effect, Naylor could lose out on quite a bit of over-the-fence pop with this move.
Again, this one probably comes out in the wash for Naylor's value. But one thing I will point out is that Naylor's skill set is well suited to racking up RBI, thanks to his ability to hit for solid power without sacrificing contact skills. He drove in 97 runs in just 121 games in 2023 and then had 108 RBI in 152 games in 2024. His batting average could be a liability (.256 and .243 in two of the past three seasons), and Naylor might be more of a 20-25 homer guy in Arizona. But in a lineup that just led the league in runs scored, he could be a dark horse candidate to lead the NL in RBI. I would take Walker over Naylor, but they should be drafted in a very similar range.
Which led to …
Carlos Santana to the Guardians
And, of course, the Guardians needed a first baseman after moving Naylor, so why not reunite with an old friend who can still get the job done? Santana is much more of a Fantasy afterthought than Naylor, but on the field, this might not actually be much of a downgrade – FanGraphs actually had Santana worth 0.7 more WAR than Naylor a year ago.
Of course, the shape of that production is very different – Santana won the Gold Glove at first base last season and still walks a decent amount more than Naylor. He doesn't have quite the same power, but still hit 23 homers last season, so he certainly isn't a zero there. Santana shouldn't be relied on as a starting first baseman even in 15-team Fantasy leagues, but I think he's an underrated CI option, especially with the RBI opportunities he'll have hitting behind Jose Ramirez. He's a fine late-round target for cheap homers and RBI.
And it all led to …
Paul Goldschmidt to the Yankees
Okay, the timeline here is getting a little fuzzy – The Yankees moved on Goldschmidt before the Naylor trade or Santana signing, though after Walker chose the Astros. It's a one-year deal for Goldschmidt, who will try to rebuild his value in a better lineup and park for 2025. And it's a chance for the Yankees to bet on that bounceback without any long-term commitment – with their eyes on one of the big bats in next year's free agent class, no doubt.
Goldschmidt can still hit the ball hard, ranking in the 82nd percentile average exit velocity of 91.2 mph and a 92nd percentile hard-hit rate of 49.6% in 2024. The problem is he struck out a career-high 26.5% of the time, a sign that he might have to cheat to get to that power, with his underlying plate discipline metrics all moving in the wrong direction in 2024. There was some improvement in that regard in the second half, and his production improved along with it, a reason to be optimistic if you're looking for one.
With the park and lineup upgrades, I think Goldschmidt is back in the top-12 discussion at first base, though that's more a reflection of how little faith I have in the non-elite options at this position. I would be willing to pass on Jake Burger to wait for Goldschmidt around Round 15 in my drafts this season, but I can't say I'm excited about the prospect of starting Goldschmidt in 2025. He's a fallback option at this point in his career, just like he was for the Yankees.
Nathaniel Lowe to the Nationals
So, in the end, it's Jake Burger replacing Lowe in Texas, as the Rangers cleared up an apparent log jam at first base with this move. It makes the path to everyday playing time a bit clearer for both Lowe and Burger, which is the biggest takeaway here. I've been out on Burger at his 120-ish ADP in NFC drafts even before he was sent to Texas, but this does make that pessimism a little harder to justify since the Rangers don't really have an obvious alternative at first base/DH if Burger gets off to a slow start. He's a solid low-end starter at the first base position for Fantasy, with big power upside and decent run production potential in a very good Rangers lineup, though given his poor on-base skills and defense, I still think there's an extremely low floor here.
Lowe is back in the CI discussion with this trade. The Nationals were reportedly in on some of the free agent first basemen but will settle for Lowe, who had a decent season in 2024 despite hitting for little power. His 121 wRC was actually the second-best of his career, but Lowe is probably a better hitter in real life than in Fantasy, given his limited power and average upside. He has hit right around .265 in three of the past four seasons, with a walk rate north of 12% and between 16 and 18 homers; the exception is 2022, when he had 27 homers and a .302 average. That's the clear outlier here, and Lowe is probably best served hitting at the top of the lineup rather than in a run production spot. He's a decent CI option – better in OBP leagues – but he's a fringe starter unless he taps into that power a bit more consistently.