Fantasy Baseball Week 14 trade values chart for H2H, Roto: Five of the biggest June breakouts worth buying

The third month of the MLB season finishes up Wednesday, and that means we're basically halfway done with the season. Two teams have already played their 81st game and 11 more will play game 81 Wednesday, so for those teams, the season is halfway over. 

It's been a wild season, with a historically early offensive drought, a big hitting increase in May, and now a league-wide crackdown on the use of foreign substances by pitchers, creating a more difficult landscape to navigate for Fantasy than I've ever experienced. And the trade values chart has seen some pretty big shakeups along the way, with many big changes in the latest version. 

German Marquez nearly threw a no-hitter! Should you be looking to buy or sell him in Fantasy? After four solid starts, should you add Joe Ross and drop somebody like Kenta Maeda or Rich Hill? Which hitters should you target that have strong second half numbers for their careers? Also, Shohei Ohtani and Kyle Schwarber won't stop raking! Check it all out on FBT in 5 and subscribe here.

Before we get to the trade values, let's take a look at five of the biggest breakouts from June and why I'm willing to buy-high on each one. 

• Kyle Schwarber -- Schwarber obviously won't keep this recent hot streak up -- he has 16 homers in his last 18 games -- and given that he had just a .716 OPS before this, skepticism about how good he can be moving forward isn't unwarranted. Especially since he had just a .701 OPS last season, too. But, if you just take his overall performance into account, this is probably the best version of Schwarber we've ever seen. He has a career-high .275 expected batting average and .608 expected slugging percentage, and while his strikeout rate is still above his 2019 levels, his plate discipline overall may be better than ever. He has a 65.1% swing rate on pitches inside of the strike zone, just below 2019 levels, but with a 22.2% chase rate, his lowest since 2018. Schwarber is swinging at hittable pitches and avoiding the ones he can't do anything with. There's still a lot of swing and miss in his game, but Schwarber is a legitimate bopper who can maintain a high-.800s OPS moving forward. The problem is, buying him at this moment is probably impossible for any reasonable price. So let's say, the priority here is to not sell Schwarber if you have him unless you got blown away by an offer including a top-50 player. 
• German Marquez -- Given where he plays his home games, it wasn't necessarily terribly surprising that Marquez had a 5.56 ERA through his first nine starts. That'll happen for stretches. The bigger surprise was Marquez's bloated 13% walk rate -- he had a 6.2% rate across his previous three seasons. Well, since having at least three walks in six of those first nine starts, it has happened just three times in the last eight, with a 6.5% walk rate. His strikeout rate is a bit more average, but combined with a strong groundball rate, and Marquez's 2.00 ERA over the last eight starts is no fluke. I don't think he'll keep this performance up, but I think Marquez is a consistently underappreciated pitcher, capable of giving you usable ratios with excellent volume -- he's on pace for nearly 200 innings after leading the NL in innings in 2020. Marquez will have the occasional blowup start, but as long as you use him on the road and against good matchups at home, you can get a lot out of him. 
• Luis Castillo -- You missed your buy-low window with Castillo. Since the start of June, he has a 1.71 ERA with 32 strikeouts in 31.2 innings over five starts. For as bad as Castillo was early in the season, there wasn't really a good explanation for why he was so bad, because there wasn't an obvious physical issue you could point to. His command was a bit off and his changeup was less effective as a result, but otherwise, he looked like 90% of himself. I'm moving Castillo back into the 30 range at starting pitcher -- below where he started the season -- and I would still be trying to buy him if whoever has him in your league thinks he's going to turn back into a pumpkin. I'm confident he won't. 
• Gary Sanchez -- Sanchez went nearly two months without hitting a home run off a fastball, continuing a multi-season trend that saw his wOBA against four-seam fastballs collapse to .286 as of May 15. However, he tweaked his swing setup around that time, adding a toe tap and minimizing the exaggerated leg kick he had been using before his swing. Sanchez hit a homer off a fastball on May 11, his first since Opening Day, and he's hitting .269/.346/.588 since that day, with a 42-homer per 150 games pace. He's looked an awful lot like the Gary Sanchez we thought could be the best catcher in Fantasy since that time. He's back in the top five for me, and there's still room to improve. 
• Joe Ross -- Here's a lower-end one, but one I'm kind of excited about. Ross has dealt with a ton of injuries since the days when he was one of the more interesting young pitchers in the game, and he got off to a rough start to 2021, with a 5.72 ERA in his first eight starts. He wasn't going deep into games and was usually held under 90 pitches, but the bigger issues were his 10.2% walk rate and 2.1 HR/9. He's turned things around since, however, sporting a 2.40 ERA with 44 strikeouts in 41.1 innings -- plus just 10 walks (6.1%) and five home runs (1.1 per nine) in that span. He's thrown 87 pitches or more in five of seven starts, including 108- and 101-pitch outings. His velocity is up in June and his sinker has been more effective, with his groundball rate up and his HR/FB rate down -- along with less hard contact allowed. Ross isn't going to be a must-start pitcher, but he's someone I'm looking to add where available right now. 

Here are my updated trade values for Week 14:

H2H Points Trade Values

Roto Trade Values

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