108 days until Opening Day …
So much for Sunday being a day of rest, just as I was about to turn in for the night, the big news we've been waiting for came down the wire: Juan Soto had made his decision. And he wouldn't be going far, much to the chagrin of Yankees fans.
The Mets finally landed the big fish they've been angling for in free agency, as Soto agreed to sign a record-breaking contract that will keep him in Queens until 2039. Soto's deal will pay him $765 million over the next 15 seasons, besting the total value of Shohei Ohtani's contract from a year ago by $65 million.
It's a blockbuster deal for MLB, the largest guaranteed contract in professional sports history, and a franchise-altering move for the Mets, who have been linked to just about every marquee free agent since Steve Cohen acquired the team. But does it really matter where Juan Soto is playing when considering his Fantasy value?
To a certain extent, of course, it does! Soto would be an impact hitter anywhere he called home. But we already saw him take a bit of a step back when he played at Petco Park, where he has a career .807 OPS. We also saw a career-best season from him in the much more hitter-friendly confines of Yankee Stadium last season.
Even for future Hall of Famers, home ballparks and lineup context matter.
They just tend to only matter on the edges of the profile, and that does figure to be the case for Soto. Citi Field isn't a great place to hit, ranking 27th out of 30 MLB ballparks in BaseballSavant.com's Park Factor stat. It tends to play pretty neutral for power for left-handed hitters, but that's still a big step back from Yankee Stadium, which has had the second-best park factor for left-handed hitters over the past three seasons. That might make a repeat of his 41 homers from 2024 somewhat unlikely.
But even that isn't a guarantee. After all, Soto actually underperformed his underlying stats in 2024, which is a pretty bonkers thing to say about a guy who finished third in the majors in wOBA behind only Aaron Judge and Ohtani's historic seasons, but it's the truth. Soto's .463 xwOBA was behind only Judge, as he underperformed both his expected batting average (.316 vs. .288) and expected ISO (.330 vs. .281).
Is Soto still among the Fantasy elite?
The fact that Soto underperformed in the best hitting environment of his life is probably worth keeping in mind. Soto has pretty consistently underperformed his expected stats for much of his career, thanks to a batted ball profile heavy on line drives and flyballs to the power alleys in left and center field, where the ball simply has to travel further to get out. That might just be a fact of life with Soto, and given that he also doesn't run much, it might be enough to keep him a tier below the truly elite options in Fantasy. The Mets ran more than the Yankees in 2024, so maybe you could see Soto getting closer to double-digits there, but probably not enough to ever be a true plus.
And yet … who cares? It's a minor park downgrade, probably a net-neutral lineup move, but it also just doesn't really matter very much for his Fantasy value. Soto was my No. 5 player in Roto (No. 2 in points) before he signed with the Mets, and I'm not particularly inspired to move him down. The differences between players in that range of the rankings are slim enough that it certainly wouldn't take much to move him down -- especially if you really want to target steals with your first-round pick, which could fairly easily move Kyle Tucker and Elly De La Cruz ahead of him. Soto might have a limited path to being the No. 1 overall player, and if you want to argue that other guys with more stolen base upside should go ahead of him, I probably wouldn't argue too much. Anywhere between No. 5 and 10 overall made sense before this signing, and I don't think this really changes how you should view him.
In fact, I think you can make a pretty strong case that Soto's is the kind of profile the Fantasy Baseball world might be undervaluing. I would certainly make that case relative to someone like De La Cruz, who is a stolen base standout par none but who is also a pretty big liability in batting average and RBI. Given how easy it is to find steals at every single point in the draft these days, I think a four-category star like Soto, who doesn't chip in many steals, is probably the better bet than a stolen-base specialist like De La Cruz with other big flaws in his game. Which is to say, I think the lowest I could realistically see myself moving Soto in my Roto rankings is down to No. 9, behind Tucker, Gunnar Henderson, and Mookie Betts, but ahead of De La Cruz, Fernando Tatis, Corbin Carroll, and Julio Rodriguez.
Who benefits on the Mets?
There's still a lot of offseason left, and I can't imagine the Mets are done -- they've signed Frankie Montas and Clay Holmes as interesting experiments in the rotation, but it still feels like they are at least an arm away from having a real contender's rotation. They also have pretty glaring holes at first base and in the outfield, so I'd bet the Mets still have another $100 million or so in contracts coming. Cohen promised he'd spend money, and he's been true to that word, after all.
Soto is, obviously, a big addition that changes the outlook for the entire offense. He'll likely bat behind Francisco Lindor and in front of Mark Vientos, who now has a huge opportunity to become one of the league's elite run producers if the gains he made last season are real. We often talk about "lineup protection" as involving the guys behind a hitter, but it's better to think about it the opposite way. Soto's presence will create more opportunities for Vientos to hit with runners on base, which is typically an advantageous situation for hitters. If Soto has a direct impact on anyone in the lineup, it's likely to be for Vientos, assuming he hits behind him.
I have my concerns about Vientos' gains myself. He still had pretty massive swing-and-miss issues, including a well-below-average 75% in-zone contact rate, which, combined with some aggressiveness on pitches out of the zone, gives him a pretty scary floor. Like "he was so bad he got sent down to the minors on May 18th" kind of scary. But Soto should make his life easier, putting him in position for more hittable pitches, and Vientos showed last season he knows what to do with those. He could be a dark horse to lead the NL in RBI if he spends the whole season batting behind Lindor and Soto.
What's next for the Yankees?
The Yankees came in second in the Soto sweepstakes, with their final offer reportedly coming in $5 million below the Mets', with an extra year added on top -- a $3.5 million difference in average salary. That comes out to a lot more once you account for luxury tax payments, but still, it's startling to see the Yankees lose out on an incumbent free agent to the Mets because they got outspent. What world are we living in?
One in which the Yankees suddenly find themselves shopping in the second tier of free agents. There are still some big names out there, but the Yankees really can't afford to get outbid from here on out. This lineup was incredibly top-heavy last season, with Judge and Soto the only players to finish with an OPS+ north of 103 (100 is average) in over 459 plate appearances. Jazz Chisholm and Giancarlo Stanton both fell short of the PA part of that stat and given their respective injury histories, neither is necessarily a good bet to get there in 2025.
There is, at least, one obvious winner on the Yankees side of things here: Jasson Dominguez. Despite the fact that you've been hearing about him for more than a half-decade now, Dominguez is still just 21 until February, so the question here is whether the Yankees believe he is ready for an everyday role. They didn't believe it last year, but that was while he was coming back from Tommy John surgery, so hopefully, it isn't indicative of a lack of long-term faith in him. He should be the frontrunner for one of the team's three outfield spots, and with 27 homers and 57 steals across 177 games between Double-A and Triple-A – not to mention six each in 26 MLB games as a 20- and 21-year-old – there's obvious difference-making upside here for Fantasy. He's a viable target as early as the ninth or 10th rounds in Roto leagues, though a riskier choice in H2H points leagues.
Chisholm gives the Yankees flexibility in who they target because he could conceivably play second base, third base, or that other outfield spot. There's a hole in the lineup at first base, which could make them a player for Pete Alonso, who is well used to the New York spotlight. They could also go after Alex Bregman, a very good defensive third baseman who still has an above-average bat -- and would bring the contact skills the Yankees have clearly been targeting in recent years.
Christian Walker would be a nice alternative to Alonso, of course, though his age makes the risk of a quick, steep decline more real than you might think. He's already 34, and while he is an excellent defender at the cold corner, he's also only viable there. He would be a nice fit on a shorter deal but would ideally be a complement to a Bregman signing.
They could also bring Gleyber Torres back, especially if he is willing to take a bigger, one-year deal to rebuild his value after a down season. Or, they could go in the opposite direction and try to shore up the defense with someone like Ha-Seong Kim.
The point is the Yankees have both the need and desire to spend, and we should expect at least a couple of signings now that they know Soto is off the table. Whether they'll be as aggressive as they need to be remains to be seen, but there are still multiple opportunities for this lineup to improve -- and it would certainly be a pretty great landing spot for any free agent, given the proximity to Judge in the lineup. Let's see what they do from here.
So, did anything else happen this weekend?
Scott White and I have been keeping track of everything going down this offseason in our Offseason Tracker piece here, and this weekend saw a couple of new additions. We'll start with Scott's thoughts on Willy Adames to the Giants:
Willy Adames signs with Giants
"I had already positioned myself as an Adames skeptic for next year, ranking him 10th at shortstop after he just placed fifth there, and this signing only fortifies my position. Oracle Park isn't quite the neutralizer it once was, but it still rates as the third-worst home run venue for right-handed hitters over the past three years, while American Family Field rates as the sixth-best. On the other hand, Adames has batted .321 (18 for 56) with an .827 OPS in 16 career games in San Francisco, and Statcast estimates that he would have hit 31 home runs playing every game there last year vs. the 32 he actually hit. So maybe it won't be so bad?
The issue is in using Adames' 2024 as a basis for comparison when it was almost certainly his best-case outcome. His exit velocities, strikeout rate, and batted-ball angles were all in line with career norms, and yet his batting average (.251) was his highest in three years, his home runs (32) were his most ever, and he also stole 21 bases when he had never reached even double digits before. It also probably goes without saying that he won't have a combined 205 runs and RBI as the most feared hitter in a mediocre Giants lineup. So, if this signing makes you skeptical of a repeat performance, that's probably for the best. You already should have been."
Tyler O'Neill signs with Orioles
"Seems like the Orioles are moving in their left field fence just in time. O'Neill just had a resurgent season with the Red Sox in part because he made a concerted effort to pull the ball in the air more -- a fine strategy for a right-handed hitter at Fenway Park but one that would have brought such a player to ruin at Camden Yards the past couple years. Fortunately, the reported changes to the left field fence there should make it a more neutral environment for right-handed hitters, and notably, O'Neill's career season (2021) came in St. Louis, which is also a challenging place for right-handers to hit it out.
Perhaps, then, the more significant variable for O'Neill than the venue is his own health. Cutting a muscular figure, the 29-year-old has been particularly susceptible to strains, playing just 65 percent of his team's games the past four years, and even when healthy, his limited bat control (he struck out a career-worst 33.6 percent last year) has made for unpredictable outcomes. He has the upside of top-20 outfielder, but the concerns piled on top of concerns drop him to 36th in my outfield rankings."
Clay Holmes signs with Mets
"After three years as the Yankees on-again, off-again closer, Holmes is switching not just leagues but also roles, getting a shot as a starter on a three-year, $38 million deal. The role isn't totally foreign to him, seeing as he spent much of his minor-league career as a starter, and in the years since, he's developed a more trustworthy arsenal and stable enough command to attempt this move back. While his sinkerball approach may have been ill-suited for closing, leaving him too vulnerable to hits in high-leverage moments, it's likely to minimize damage over extended stretches. For all the tense moments as a closer, the ERA was always good, after all. This signing raises Holmes' Fantasy appeal in the hopes he can follow in the footsteps of successful relievers-turned-starters like Michael King, Reynaldo Lopez, and Bowden Francis, and interest should be especially high in Head-to-Head points leagues, where he figures to be one of the top 15 relievers drafted."
We've also got thoughts on Shane Bieber's bounce-back chances with the Guardians, Luis Severino's surprising signing with the Athletics, and everything else you might have missed here.
Who is left on the market?
Plenty of big names! Among the top 10 in R.J. Anderson's ranking of the top free agents, only Soto (No. 1), Blake Snell (No. 4), Willy Adames (No. 6), and Sean Manaea (No. 9) have actually signed so far, extend it to the top 20, and 13 are still left to sign.
And that's not even counting guys like Garrett Crochet, Devin Williams, or Robert, who seem very likely to be traded this offseason. Hopefully, with Soto off the board, other pieces start to slide into place relatively quickly, unlike in some recent seasons, when the biggest names on the market remained unsigned until February or later. There will always be some stragglers, but it feels like we've got pretty good momentum going right now, so hopefully, this kicks off a bit of an arms race at the Winter Meetings in Dallas.