A few days ago, in writing about Gerrit Cole's return from Tommy John surgery, I asked a simple question: "Is he … you know … back?" If Wednesday was any indication, yeah, he's all the way back.
Cole absolutely dominated the Royals Wednesday, limiting them to just four hits across 6.2 shutout innings while striking out 10 on just 79 pitches. Yeah, it's the Royals, a fairly hapless offense that ranks just 27th in the majors in runs per game this season, but it's not like starts like this are a regular occurrence against them – this was just the third double-digit strikeout effort of the season against the Royals, and neither of the prior ones were shutouts.
Of course, it is worth noting that the previous two were by Will Warren and Emerson Hancock – good pitchers, but not necessarily Prime Gerrit Cole kind of talents, either. Good pitchers are absolutely capable of this kind of performance against the Royals, but that doesn't mean this kind of performance means the pitcher is a guaranteed superstar moving forward. And, as we've seen with other high-end pitchers coming back from long layoffs like Spencer Strider and Sandy Alcantara over the past year, the elite starts aren't necessarily the problem – it's the consistency they've struggled with.
That all may be the case with Cole moving forward as well. On the other hand, maybe older pitchers are better equipped to come back from significant injuries and dominate. We're seeing a bit of that with Zack Wheeler, and Justin Verlander famously won a Cy Young award in his first season back from Tommy John surgery, and he did that about four years older than Cole.
But the stuff looks excellent for Cole, and the execution has been there so far. It's too early to say he's going to keep dominating like this, but that's two good starts in a row to kick things off, and we're not that far removed from him being viewed as arguably the best pitcher in Fantasy. The Yankees might have to be somewhat careful with his innings at times, but I don't think we're going to see them baby him or anything, given his age and experience. If he's just going to be great moving forward, there shouldn't be much slowing him down.
Is what we've seen enough to rank him as a top-20 SP the rest of the way? Before this start, I had Cole around SP40, but it's pretty clear that is way too low. He was grouped with guys like Spencer Strider and Shane McClanahan, and while I think they'll be good moving forward, I think they both have clear limitations that Cole may not. Would I rather have Cole or Tarik Skubal the rest of the way? Skubal is making incredible progress coming back from his own elbow surgery, but it's an untested procedure that Skubal is still probably at least a few weeks away from returning from, so I do think you'd have to give Cole the edge, which pushes him into the top-30 for me.
Looking further ahead, I think you'd rather have Cole than Framber Valdez at this point; I'd also have to take him over Dylan Cease, who is on the IL with a hamstring injury that will cost him a few weeks. And then you start getting into the top-20 discussion, where you're comparing him to Jesus Luzardo and Freddy Peralta, guys I really like, but who also have obvious limitations.
I'll leave Cole behind them for now, but a top-20 ranking is nothing to scoff at two starts into the season for Cole. The next start could make that look foolish. Given how things have gone for other big-name pitchers returning from injuries, I'd bet on Cole having some kind of ugly start soon. Like I said, consistency tends to be the biggest limiting factor in these situations, and we just haven't seen what the downside looks like.
We will at some point, but right now, it's looking like all systems go for Cole, who could be an absolute difference maker the rest of the way.
