Baseball and major sports television has done a great job making the First Year Player Draft pertinent to the average fan, but Fantasy owners need to be careful of all the "He can arrive quickly" or "He is the best chance in this draft to be a superstar" commentary.
Those reviews were dropped repeatedly on the early first-rounders Thursday. But we merely have to point you to the likes of Matt Bush (No. 1 overall in 2004) and more recently Josh Vitters (No. 3 overall in 2007 is injured in low Class A) to show baseball's draftees are no sure things in Fantasy right away.
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Interested in seeing how your favorite prospects are performing in the minor leagues? You can find a player's stats on his page or you can sort stats for Triple-A and Double-A by clicking here . |
Yes, baseball is doing a much better job of scouting and player development, reaping early rewards from their draftees, but it still has a long way to go.
The quick Fantasy hits of: Ryan Braun (No. 5 overall in 2005), Troy Tulowitzki (No. 7 overall in 2005), Ryan Zimmerman (No. 4 overall in 2005), Evan Longoria (No. 3 overall in 2006), Tim Lincecum (No. 10 overall in 2006), Alex Gordon (No. 2 overall in 2005), Justin Upton (No. 1 overall in 2005) and, perhaps come August, David Price (No. 1 overall in 2007) are more the exceptions than the rule. And, save for Upton, the fastest rising Fantasy talents come from major college programs.
The suggestion here is, outside of some truly special cases, look back on a June draft years back to focus on how those players developed and merely keep the new draftees in mind as minor leaguers to watch over the next couple of seasons.
In a look back the past few years, here are some of the top first-round picks yet to pop but most capable of becoming stars:
2004 -- 10. SP Thomas Diamond, TEX; 14. 1B Billy Butler, KC; 18. 3B Josh Fields, CHW; 23. SP Phil Hughes, NYY.
2005 -- 3. C Jeff Clement, SEA; 9. SP Mike Pelfrey, NYM; 10. OF Cameron Maybin, FLA; 11. OF Andrew McCutchen, PIT; 15. SP Lance Broadway, CHW; 16. SP Chris Volstad, FLA; SP Cesar Carrillo, SD; OF Colby Rasmus, STL; 42. SP Clay Buchholz, BOS; 47. SP Michael Bowden, BOS.
2006 -- 5. SP Brandon Morrow, SEA; 6. SP Andrew Miller, FLA; 7. SP Clayton Kershaw, LAD; 9. 3B William Rowell, BAL; 11. Max Scherzer, ARI; 14. Travis Snyder, TOR; 15. OF Christopher Marrero, WAS; 16. SP Jeremy Jeffress, MIL; 19. SP Brett Sinkbeil, FLA; 21. SP Ian Kennedy, NYY; 41. SP Joba Chamberlain, NYY; RP Chris Perez, STL.
2007 -- 1. David Price, TB; 2. Mike Moustakas, KC; 5. C Matt Wieters, BAL; 6. SP Ross Detwiler, WAS; 7. OF Matt LaPorta, MIL; 9. SP Jarrod Parker, ARI; 10. SP Madison Bumgarner, SF; 13. 1B Beau Mills, CLE; 14. OF Jason Heyward, ATL; 19. SP Joe Savery, PHI; 25. SP Aaron Poreda, CHW; 27. SP Rick Porcello, DET; 30. SP Andrew Brackman, NYY; 34. 3B Todd Frazier, CIN; 49. OF Michael Burgess, WAS.
Now, there are hundreds of other prospects who still could become Fantasy-worthy, but the point of this exercise is to show how rare those instant Fantasy hits above are. And, outside of the deepest of long-term keeper leagues, there are plenty of other developing already-pro prospects to consider over this year's most-hyped draftees.
If you are in one of those long-term keeper formats, here are some scouting reports on the top draft prospects. Also, here is a list of this year's class pick-by-pick.
Prospect watch
Every Thursday, we break down all the minor leaguers who are owned in at least 1 percent of our Fantasy leagues. This will be your essential guide to unearthing the elite prospects before they hit the big time.
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Player | TM | POS | Own% | Level | W-L | ERA | K | BB | HA | WHIP | IP |
Francisco Liriano | MIN | SP | 61 | Triple-A | 0-2 | 4.18 | 33 | 18 | 42 | 1.268 | 47 1/3 |
Clay Buchholz | BOS | SP | 50 | Triple-A | 0-0 | 2.77 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 1.231 | 13 |
Homer Bailey | CIN | SP | 49 | Majors | 4-4 | 4.15 | 55 | 31 | 66 | 1.399 | 69 1/3 |
David Price | TB | SP | 28 | High A | 2-0 | 0.00 | 19 | 2 | 8 | 0.556 | 18 |
Rich Hill | CHC | SP | 24 | Triple-A | 1-2 | 4.41 | 20 | 11 | 15 | 1.592 | 16 1/3 |
Franklin Morales | COL | SP | 6 | Triple-A | 3-2 | 7.13 | 15 | 23 | 18 | 1.708 | 24 |
Nick Adenhart | ANA | SP | 5 | Triple-A | 5-3 | 3.02 | 33 | 25 | 49 | 1.379 | 53 2/3 |
Chuck James | ATL | SP | 4 | Triple-A | 1-2 | 1.65 | 16 | 8 | 24 | 1.171 | 27 1/3 |
Adam Miller | CLE | SP | 4 | Triple-A | 0-1 | 1.88 | 20 | 12 | 26 | 1.326 | 28 2/3 |
Kason Gabbard | TEX | SP | 4 | Triple-A | 0-0 | 6.43 | 7 | 2 | 9 | 1.571 | 7 |
Jeremy Sowers | CLE | SP | 4 | Majors | 4-3 | 2.08 | 43 | 17 | 56 | 1.203 | 60 2/3 |
Gio Gonzalez | OAK | SP | 3 | Triple-A | 2-3 | 5.98 | 55 | 30 | 69 | 1.688 | 58 2/3 |
Rick Porcello | DET | SP | 3 | High A | 3-6 | 2.87 | 36 | 17 | 61 | 1.245 | 62 2/3 |
Chris Volstad | FLA | SP | 3 | Double-A | 3-2 | 2.96 | 46 | 25 | 61 | 1.229 | 70 |
Brad Hennessey | SF | RP | 2 | Triple-A | 3-1 | 2.93 | 13 | 7 | 33 | 1.446 | 27 2/3 |
Anthony Reyes | STL | SP | 2 | Triple-A | 1-1 | 3.04 | 23 | 13 | 24 | 1.563 | 23 2/3 |
Carlos Carrasco | PHI | SP | 2 | Double-A | 4-4 | 3.46 | 69 | 25 | 68 | 1.374 | 67 2/3 |
Jake McGee | TB | SP | 2 | Double-A | 5-3 | 3.77 | 58 | 24 | 49 | 1.223 | 59 2/3 |
Wade Davis | TB | SP | 2 | Double-A | 6-3 | 3.15 | 52 | 27 | 62 | 1.248 | 71 1/3 |
Dustin Moseley | ANA | SP | 1 | Triple-A | 1-2 | 6.45 | 18 | 7 | 29 | 1.612 | 22 1/3 |
Charlie Morton | ATL | RP | 1 | Triple-A | 5-1 | 1.70 | 68 | 24 | 47 | 0.959 | 74 |
Sean Marshall | CHC | SP | 1 | Triple-A | 0-1 | 4.02 | 14 | 4 | 12 | 1.021 | 15 2/3 |
Matt Belisle | CIN | SP | 1 | Triple-A | 1-0 | 4.32 | 7 | 1 | 14 | 1.800 | 8 1/3 |
Jensen Lewis | CLE | RP | 1 | Triple-A | 0-0 | 4.50 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 1.750 | 4 |
Taylor Tankersley | FLA | RP | 1 | Triple-A | No stats yet | ||||||
Jon Meloan | LA | RP | 1 | Triple-A | 4-5 | 4.18 | 56 | 37 | 59 | 1.591 | 60 1/3 |
Philip Humber | MIN | SP | 1 | Triple-A | 3-5 | 5.53 | 33 | 29 | 66 | 1.717 | 55 1/3 |
Kei Igawa | NYY | SP | 1 | Triple-A | 5-4 | 4.07 | 61 | 17 | 60 | 1.161 | 66 1/3 |
Jeff Niemann | TB | SP | 1 | Triple-A | 2-2 | 4.35 | 24 | 10 | 27 | 1.194 | 31 |
Eric Hurley | TEX | SP | 1 | Triple-A | 2-5 | 5.56 | 65 | 27 | 79 | 1.559 | 68 |
Kazuo Fukumori | TEX | RP | 1 | Triple-A | 0-2 | 3.80 | 16 | 4 | 19 | 1.078 | 21 1/3 |
Matt Chico | WAS | SP | 1 | Triple-A | 0-0 | 9.00 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 2.250 | 4 |
Kris Benson | PHI | SP | 1 | TBD | No stats yet | ||||||
Rick VandenHurk | FLA | SP | 1 | Double-A | 1-0 | 5.91 | 13 | 3 | 11 | 1.313 | 10 2/3 |
Ross Detwiler | WAS | SP | 1 | High A | 4-3 | 5.76 | 54 | 28 | 59 | 1.740 | 50 |
Jarrod Parker | ARI | SP | 1 | Low A | 4-3 | 2.72 | 34 | 10 | 39 | 1.235 | 39 2/3 |
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Player | TM | Pos | Own% | Level | AVG | HR | RBI | R | SB | OBP | SLUG |
Billy Butler | KC | DH | 28 | Triple-A | .364 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | .417 | .545 |
Chris Duncan | STL | LF | 20 | Triple-A | .214 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | .421 | .286 |
Cameron Maybin | FLA | OF | 18 | Double-A | .267 | 10 | 25 | 41 | 13 | .367 | .486 |
Chase Headley | SD | 3B | 17 | Triple-A | .301 | 10 | 30 | 41 | 0 | .369 | .522 |
Josh Fields | CHW | 3B | 14 | Triple-A | .256 | 7 | 21 | 22 | 3 | .336 | .481 |
Jeff Clement | SEA | C | 10 | Triple-A | .366 | 11 | 35 | 32 | 0 | .482 | .724 |
Andy LaRoche | LA | 3B | 9 | Triple-A | .274 | 4 | 23 | 30 | 2 | .445 | .406 |
Colby Rasmus | STL | OF | 8 | Triple-A | .225 | 8 | 24 | 34 | 7 | .323 | .367 |
Felix Pie | CHC | OF | 7 | Triple-A | .179 | 3 | 9 | 14 | 2 | .238 | .359 |
Matt LaPorta | MIL | OF | 6 | Double-A | .297 | 16 | 52 | 44 | 1 | .403 | .612 |
Jerry Owens | CHW | OF | 5 | Triple-A | .253 | 1 | 11 | 20 | 13 | .325 | .312 |
Eugenio Velez | SF | 2B | 5 | Triple-A | .388 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | .455 | .592 |
Jed Lowrie | BOS | SS | 3 | Triple-A | .297 | 1 | 9 | 14 | 0 | .397 | .469 |
Matt Joyce | DET | OF | 3 | Triple-A | .283 | 7 | 24 | 22 | 2 | .356 | .550 |
Steve Pearce | PIT | OF | 3 | Triple-A | .264 | 6 | 35 | 22 | 4 | .319 | .434 |
Andrew McCutchen | PIT | OF | 3 | Triple-A | .290 | 7 | 24 | 38 | 18 | .379 | .446 |
Chris Davis | TEX | 3B | 3 | Triple-A | .235 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 0 | .297 | .412 |
Adam Lind | TOR | LF | 3 | Triple-A | .322 | 5 | 40 | 19 | 1 | .380 | .521 |
Matt Wieters | BAL | C | 3 | High A | .324 | 12 | 33 | 37 | 1 | .420 | .566 |
Josh Barfield | CLE | 2B | 2 | Triple-A | .264 | 5 | 20 | 25 | 9 | .305 | .398 |
Jayson Nix | COL | 2B | 2 | Triple-A | .276 | 6 | 16 | 28 | 6 | .346 | .517 |
Dallas McPherson | FLA | 3B | 2 | Triple-A | .282 | 19 | 42 | 38 | 2 | .379 | .635 |
Matt Antonelli | SD | 2B | 2 | Triple-A | .176 | 3 | 14 | 26 | 2 | .313 | .277 |
Reid Brignac | TB | SS | 2 | Triple-A | .276 | 5 | 31 | 28 | 4 | .312 | .472 |
Dan Johnson | TB | 1B | 2 | Triple-A | .318 | 8 | 30 | 32 | 0 | .429 | .553 |
Fernando Martinez | NYM | OF | 2 | Double-A | .280 | 3 | 16 | 19 | 3 | .314 | .408 |
Travis Snider | TOR | OF | 2 | Double-A | .235 | 8 | 31 | 24 | 0 | .341 | .425 |
Kendry Morales | ANA | 1B | 1 | Triple-A | .324 | 8 | 37 | 22 | 1 | .365 | .505 |
Brent Lillibridge | ATL | SS | 1 | Triple-A | .192 | 1 | 14 | 18 | 12 | .263 | .245 |
Brandon Jones | ATL | OF | 1 | Triple-A | .258 | 2 | 20 | 23 | 4 | .337 | .371 |
Brandon Moss | BOS | OF | 1 | Triple-A | .302 | 6 | 26 | 25 | 2 | .357 | .547 |
Matt Murton | CHC | LF | 1 | Triple-A | .333 | 1 | 12 | 23 | 3 | .440 | .425 |
Danny Richar | CHW | 2B | 1 | Triple-A | .196 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 2 | .305 | .353 |
Joe Koshansky | COL | 1B | 1 | Triple-A | .307 | 13 | 55 | 39 | 0 | .381 | .615 |
Ryan Shealy | KC | 1B | 1 | Triple-A | .222 | 8 | 16 | 17 | 0 | .300 | .470 |
Tony K. Gwynn | MIL | OF | 1 | Triple-A | .364 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 3 | .453 | .364 |
Neil Walker | PIT | 3B | 1 | Triple-A | .224 | 6 | 25 | 32 | 1 | .267 | .413 |
Nate Schierholtz | SF | OF | 1 | Triple-A | .304 | 8 | 41 | 31 | 8 | .354 | .557 |
Taylor Teagarden | TEX | C | 1 | Triple-A | .250 | 3 | 9 | 12 | 0 | .388 | .413 |
Lars Anderson | BOS | 1B | 1 | High A | .280 | 7 | 26 | 30 | 0 | .384 | .488 |
Christopher Marrero | WAS | OF | 1 | High A | .244 | 8 | 27 | 29 | 0 | .309 | .405 |
Jordan Schafer | ATL | OF | 1 | Double-A | .250 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | .357 | .500 |
Michael Aubrey | CLE | 1B | 1 | Double-A | .282 | 2 | 16 | 14 | 0 | .330 | .456 |
Matthew Gamel | MIL | 3B | 1 | Double-A | .382 | 13 | 51 | 57 | 4 | .454 | .668 |
Austin Jackson | NYY | OF | 1 | Double-A | .279 | 3 | 33 | 34 | 8 | .367 | .420 |
Jose Tabata | NYY | OF | 1 | Double-A | .239 | 1 | 25 | 27 | 7 | .319 | .284 |
Elvis Andrus | TEX | SS | 1 | Double-A | .268 | 0 | 19 | 31 | 19 | .322 | .316 |
Max Ramirez | TEX | C | 1 | Double-A | .365 | 14 | 42 | 40 | 1 | .449 | .672 |
Josh Vitters | CHC | 3B | 1 | Low A | .214 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | .214 | .429 |
Michael Moustakas | KC | 3B | 1 | Low A | .241 | 8 | 28 | 25 | 4 | .295 | .407 |
Rookie watch
Top AL rookies to date
- OF Jacoby Ellsbury, BOS -- David Ortiz's DL stint makes him a full-timer with Manny Ramirez at DH.
- OF David Murphy, KC -- We keep thinking he will cool off, but he has been great in that lineup and hitter's park.
- 3B Evan Longoria, TB -- Strikeout rate has kept his average low, but that power is as good as expected.
- SP Aaron Laffey, CLE -- Yet another Indians injury solidifies his longer-term spot in their rotation.
- SP Justin Masterson, BOS -- Clearly he needs to stick around in the majors even if it is as a setup man.
- Honorable mentions: SP Greg Smith, OAK; RP Joba Chamberlain, NYY; OF Ryan Sweeney, OAK; OF Ben Francisco, CLE; 2B Alexei Ramirez, CHW; RP Armando Galarraga, DET; SP Garrett Olson, BAL; RP Jesse Carlson, TOR; RP Masahide Kobayashi, CLE; RP Dennis Sarfate, BAL; RP Jose Arredono, LAA; RP Joey Devine, ATL.
Top NL rookies to date
- C Geovany Soto, CHC -- If there is a future 30-homer catcher in baseball, it has to be this guy.
- OF Jay Bruce, CIN -- He has set the world and NL pitching on fire, but can a 21-year-old really sustain this?
- OF Kosuke Fukudome, CHC -- He looks more like a table-setter than a base-clearer, but there is a place here for his type.
- SP Jair Jurrjens, ATL -- He has proven a little more hittable of late, but you can't expect dominance every time out.
- SP Johnny Cueto, CIN -- His ERA will come down to the 4.00 level and he has the most value among NL rookie pitchers.
- Honorable mentions: 1B Joey Votto, CIN; 3B Blake DeWitt, LAD; SP John Lannan, WAS; SP Hiroki Kuroda, LAD; SP Clayton Kershaw, LAD; RP Max Scherzer, ARI; RP Kyle McClellan, STL; RP Chris Perez, STL; SP Jorge Campillo, ATL; SP Josh Banks, SD; OF Gregor Blanco, ATL; 3B/2B Ian Stewart, COL.
Newbie needs
Robert: Why hasn't Seattle brought back Jeff Clement yet? What are they waiting for?
Emack: Well, Clement is a catcher and the Mariners committed three years to Kenji Johjima. Clement needs to move to first base or DH in the big leagues, unfortunately. The Mariners have to be sick of 1B Richie Sexson and DH Jose Vidro, though, and manager John McLaren had an outburst Wednesday night, so it might not be long before the Mariners just decide to go young at 1B/DH. Clement will remain a part-time catcher, too, which makes him a Ryan Doumit-like sleeper in the second half.
Kevin: I just picked up Chris Davis for my short-term keeper league. His numbers are outstanding and they just sent him up to Triple-A Oklahoma. When do you expect the not-so-great Rangers to call him up to replace struggling first baseman Chris Shelton?
Emack: Davis was a June 1 mover to Triple-A, so we could see him in the big leagues before the All-Star break. His power potential makes him a strong AL-only sleeper, but the stigma of the Jason Botts and German Duran's failures in Texas will likely keep him from being a great mixed league target. Davis is bigger prospect than those guys, though, so don't be turned off -- expecially for a power prospect in that lineup and home hitter's park.
Brian: You are KILLING me. You single-handedly take the fun out of Fantatsy Baseball and let the idiots that don't have a clue back in the game. I understand your job is to report on Fantasy, but announcing David Price as right now is crazy. I have been watching this guy with a very close eye, pretty confident only a few of the top owners in my league know about him. Now the guy in last place is going to pick him up and keep him for the next eight years. Thanks again. Can't wait till next week to cross another name from my must have young stud list.
Emack: Glad to help.
A Long Time Fantasy Player: You guys do nice work, but because of all the public articles based on scouting you guys do, there is no way to outmaneuver the other Fantasy coaches any more. You make knowledgeable coaches out of everyone so it is no longer fun spending time scouring the minor leaguers, looking at emerging players and new players who quietly enter the bigs. Because of these articles, I was forced into adding Max Scherzer before I wanted to, and have had David Price on my radar, so he will also likely get grabbed by someone before I'm positioned to pick him up. There are countless other examples related to emerging players (I picked up Joey Votto just before the site started raving about HIM. Had someone picked him up after reading about him, it would have interfered with a trade I was working (Ryan Howard for some pitching). This isn't a knock on you guys at all, but I think you need to be a little more cognizant of what Fantasy sports are all about. We really don't need "scouts" in the field who identify good prospects for every coach to consider. Finding that diamond-in-the-rough is part of the fun. Doing so should be left to us -- the Fantasy coaches who enjoy devoting the time.
Emack: Thanks for reading.
Neven, Queens, N.Y.: I was just wondering what sort of projection do you have for Edinson Volquez's workload this year as far as whether he should be relied upon to pitch 200 innings successfully, or if we should expect him to hit the proverbial rookie wall considering he has barely crossed 150 innings in any year in the minors?
Emack: Volquez is technically not a rookie and has been building up his arm for the past three seasons on the shuttle from the minors to the majors. He went around 150 pro innings in 2006 and around 180 in 2007. He is currently on pace for 205 2/3 innings, which is right about what he could be expected to reach in his first full season. He will slow down, sure, but Mario Soto has done an outstanding job getting this elite talent to live up to his immense potential.
You can e-mail Emack your Fantasy Baseball prospect questions to DMFantasyBaseball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Prospects in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state. Be aware, due to the large volume of submissions received, we cannot guarantee personal responses to all questions.