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Are you aware of the phrase, "There's No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect?" You might have seen someone say "TNSTAAPP" on twitter; this is what they're talking about. The general principle behind it is that pitchers are such volatile assets, there's almost no point in deciding who is or isn't a pitching prospect. Dylan Bundy was once a can't-miss prospect, while Jacob deGrom was almost an afterthought in his own organization; the theory makes some sense!
Still, at some point, even pitchers settle in and become reliable and predictable, right? At the very least, we typically don't expect pitchers to get better as they age; throwing a baseball several thousands of times doesn't tend to make shoulders and elbows more agreeable to dialing up velocity, after all.
So, what do we make of Jaime Garcia's blazing start? Garcia is one of those pitchers whose story seems to have been written in pen; he has never struck out more than 7.27 batters per nine in a full season, and was at just 6.73 last season, with an overall strikeout rate of just 19.0 percent.
Garcia has been a solid, dependable starting option when healthy not because he blows pitches bast batters, but because he racks up ground balls at an astounding rate, keeps the ball in the yard, and refuses to issue free passes to the bases. However, through his first two starts, Garcia has struck out 19 batters, including 13 in a complete game win over the Brewers Thursday, which has led to the best two-start strikeout stretch of his career. With Garcia still available in more than 20 percent of CBSSports.com leagues, are Fantasy owners letting a potential ace sit out on waivers?
Probably not. Garcia has never struck out as many as 19 in two starts, but he did have one 18-K stretch to open the 2011 season, and proceeded to strike out 6.9 batters per nine over the remainder of his starts that season, with a 3.81 ERA.
Garcia's velocity isn't up, and his pitch distribution isn't notably different through two starts, so there aren't a ton of indicators he is doing something different. His swinging strike rate of 10.1 percent is up slightly from last season, but actually below his career rate. In most ways besides strikeout rate, he looks largely like the same pitcher he's always been.
Of course, that's still a pretty good pitcher! He did have a 2.43 ERA in 129 2/3 innings last season, and his peripherals didn't suggest there was too much unsustainable about that. His constant shoulder injuries are a constant dark cloud over Garcia, but he is a useful Fantasy option when healthy, and should be universally owned after this start.
Kevin Jepsen, RP, Twins (25 percent owned)
Jepsen has not gotten off to a hot start to the season, allowing three runs on five hits in his first 2 2/3 innings of work. Of course, it's always worth taking any early relief numbers with a massive grain of salt, given the tiny sample sizes involved; Jepsen has thrown just 44 pitches, or about one half of a single start's worth. It is better, in this instance, to look at the longer term track record, and Jepsen looks a lot better in this view. He sported a 2.33 ERA last season and has been below 3.00 in each of the last two seasons, with a strikeout per innings, decent control and solid homer prevention abilities. Jepsen isn't necessarily an elite reliever, but he should be able to hold his own as the Twins' closer in Glen Perkins' absence -- assuming they ever win a game this season.
Ross Stripling, SP, Dodgers (56 percent owned)
If it felt like Stripling came out of nowhere to flirt with a no-hitter against the Padres in hist first start, that probably isn't an unfair thing to say. The 26-year-old was on exactly zero Fantasy radars coming into the season, given his age, lack of prospect pedigree and lack of minor-league track record. Of course, what minor-league track record he did have is actually pretty impressive, once you account for the fact that he missed all of the 2014 season and a large chunk of 2015 recovering from Tommy John surgery. His 2015 numbers at Double-A aren't terribly impressive (3.88 ERA in 67 1/3 innings), but he does have a 2.83 ERA overall, with 8.1 K/9, solid control and only 12 homers allowed in 235 1/3 innings. So far in the majors, he hasn't shown tremendous control , but has a 54.5 percent ground-ball rate and a solid offense behind him, which could make him worth a roster spot as a streaming option.
Ben Paulsen, 1B, Rockies (14 percent owned)
The Rockies don't have an obvious replacement for Charlie Blackmon, on the DL with turf toe, but Paulsen is one player who may benefit from Blackmon's absence. Paulsen is primarily a first baseman, but has ventured out into the outfield at times over the last few years, and got the start in Blackmon's place Thursday and went 1 for 3 with an RBI. There are reasons to be concerned about playing time for Paulsen, both against lefties and later in games when he might be replaced in the outfield for defensive purposes, but if this clears a more consistent spot in the lineup for him, he can certainly be a helpful option. Especially when the Rockies are at home, where Paulsen has a career .303/.361/.491 line.
