As we get down to the final few weeks of the season, I'm trying to find the right balance between recapping the previous night's action and providing analysis for the immediate future, while also keeping an eye on 2025. And, with each passing day, that balance tips more to the 2025 side of the equation; fewer of you have something to play for right now, and those of you who do have few opportunities to actually change your outcomes.
And, with outfield on my mind, I've got one important question to kick things off: How high is too high to rank Jackson Chourio for 2025?
We've obviously got a few weeks left in his rookie season, but the book is almost entirely written by now, and it's a heck of a story. In fact, it's a pretty historic one, with Chourio becoming just the third player in MLB history to have 20 homers and 20 steals as a 20-year-old, joining Mike Trout and Vada Pinson in that club. That's pretty impressive company – Trout's rookie season ushered in basically a decade where he was the unquestioned No. 1 pick in Fantasy, after all.
But it also goes without saying that Chourio is not Mike Trout. As good as he has been as a rookie – Chourio is now a top-35 player in Roto for the season – Trout was better in every single way – he had 30 homers and 49 steals while leading the American League with a 168 OPS+, compared to Chourio's 121 mark to go along with his 21 homers and 20 steals.
It's no knock on Chourio to say he isn't as good as Mike Trout, of course, though it is worth noting that, for much of the season, he hasn't been far off. As Underdog Fantasy's Brendan Tuma pointed out recently, Chourio has been one of the very best hitters in the league since the start of June, posting a top-12 wRC+ since then, with a mark of at least 143 in each month. It took him a while to figure it out, but once Chourio did, he played like an absolute superstar, and he has the underlying numbers to back it up, too.
Chourio's expected wOBA for the season is .341, which is impressive enough – it's in the 75th percentile among all hitters, fueled by a near-elite .286 xBA (92nd percentile). But over his past 250 plate appearances, Chourio's xwOBA is .394, and the arrow has just been pointing up for most of the season at this point:
And it's worth repeating, Chourio is doing all this as a 20-year-old; he didn't turn 20 until a few weeks before his rookie season, at that. He's a top-36 player in Fantasy and he's only two months older than Roman Anthony, the new top prospect in baseball who we're hoping will be MLB ready at the start of 2025. It's hard to overstate how impressive what Chourio is doing right now.
But does it mean he needs to be a first-round pick in 2025?
As good as Chourio, probably not. While adjusting for age does make Chourio's achievements even more impressive, it doesn't necessarily follow that he's going to take a big step forward in year two. He very well may, but you can look at Vada Pinson, the other player to go 20-20 as a 20-year-old for a sign of why it isn't a guarantee. Pinson was incredible as a rookie, but he actually took a small step back in his second season, despite stealing a few more bases; his overall OPS dropped from .880 as a 20-year-old to .811 as a 21-year-old. Heck, even Trout took a step backward in four of the five Roto categories in his second season.
And, when you compare Chourio to the other most productive young players over the past few years who have made the leap to first-round draft status in their second seasons, he comes up pretty short. Ronald Acuña was a better overall hitter as a 20-year-old, finishing with 26 homers and 16 steals in 25 (and counting) fewer games; Julio Rodriguez had 28 and 25 as a rookie, with a better OPS+ than Chourio; Fernando Tatis had 22 homers and 16 steals as a 20-year-old in only 84 games. As brilliant as Chourio has been, he's been a bit below those guys, both as an overall hitter and as a Fantasy player.
That's not to say Chourio can't get there, of course. He's hit at their level for two-thirds of the season, and I think that upward trajectory is probably worth betting on for a player this young – especially since we saw similar trends when he was climbing the ladder in the minors. But Chourio's lack of steals especially makes it tough to bet on him as a first-round caliber player: He is just 28th in steals this season; Acuña was 37th in just 111 games as a rookie, Tatis was 32nd in 84 games, and Rodriguez was 12th in 132 games.
If you're looking for a place where Chourio could help his value in the next couple of weeks, it's probably on the basepaths. There's no question he has the ability to be a truly impactful source of steals, of course, with his 98th-percentile sprint speed and 44 steals in 128 games last season. The Brewers have just been weirdly conservative with Chourio, specifically, as he ranks just fourth in steals on their team despite his elite speed. Maybe they are trying to have the young guy focus on the other aspects of his game before letting him run wild, but it has been weird to see them holding Chourio back like this while ranking third in the majors in steals as a team.
That's a good reason to be bullish on Chourio, of course. I'm just not sure it's enough to push him into that first-round discussion. Not when we've already seen seasons like that from young guys like Corbin Carroll and Julio Rodriguez, who probably won't rank in the top-12 overall next season either. Chourio is an elite talent, and he might even have No. 1 overall player upside if it all comes together for him. But I think Fernando Tatis probably still has No. 1 overall player upside, and I don't think he's going to be ranked in the top-12 overall, either; and I'll probably rank Acuña ahead of him, assuming it looks like he'll be ready close to Opening Day coming off his torn ACL.
I do think Chourio has done enough to play his way into a top-10 ranking among outfielders, and into the second/third-round consideration overall – and unlike many power/speed guys, I think he might very well be equally valuable in H2H points leagues, thanks to rapidly improving plate discipline. This is a special talent, for sure.
There's room for Chourio to emerge as a 30-homer, 40-steal guy who competes for batting titles in the long run, and if he does, we're talking about a potential No. 1 pick. I don't think he's quite there yet, but it wouldn't surprise me if he got there by this time next year. So, like Scott, I'm probably comfortable ranking Chourio as a second-round pick for 2025 at this point.
