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Murphy is expected to undergo season-ending Tommy John surgery later this week, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com reports. The 20-year-old righty has spent the entire 2024 season at High-A Rome, piling up 60 strikeouts over 41 innings while pitching to a 1.54 ERA and 0.73 WHIP. Though he hasn't yet been formally deactivated, Murphy hasn't pitched since May 14, and the elbow injury explains why. Given the timing of Murphy's surgery, he could be at risk of missing most, if not all, of the 2025 season.
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Murphy struck out 11 over 6.1 scoreless innings for High-A Rome on Tuesday, allowing three hits and zero walks. The 20-year-old right-hander is having a breakout campaign and justifying the upside Atlanta saw in him when the team made Murphy the 20th overall pick in the 2022 draft. In his last five starts, he's struck out double-digit batters three times, posting a 1.86 ERA, 0.69 WHIP and 44:8 K:BB in only 29 innings over that stretch. Atlanta hasn't had qualms about advancing pitchers up the ladder quickly in the past, so Murphy figures to get promoted to Double-A before long given his dominance of South Atlantic League hitters. On his current trajectory, a 2025 big-league debut could be in the cards.
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Murphy has posted a 0.75 ERA, 0.83 WHIP and 16:4 K:BB through two starts and 12 innings for High-A Rome to begin the season. A first-round pick out of high school in 2022, Murphy struggled with his consistency during his first full pro season last year, but the early returns are very encouraging in 2024. The right-hander profiled as a potential back-of-the-rotation arm when he was drafted, with a solid four-pitch mix that lacked any plus offerings, but Atlanta may have been able to unlock something more in the 20-year-old.
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Murphy has a 2.87 ERA, 0.83 WHIP and 26:4 K:BB over his last three starts (15.2 innings) for Single-A Augusta. The 20th overall pick in last year's draft, Murphy had a rough six-start stretch from mid-May through mid-June where he had a 7.78 ERA, 1.73 WHIP and 20:12 K:BB in 19.2 innings, so it's encouraging to see him right the ship. This recent hot stretch included an eight-strikeout game and a 12-strikeout game, which are his top strikeout performances to date as a pro.
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Murphy has yet to give up a run with an 11:3 K:BB through two starts and 7.1 innings for Single-A Augusta. The right-hander won't turn 20 until September, but Murphy has lived up to his first-round pedigree to begin his first full pro season. Atlanta is hoping his athleticism -- he was a two-way player in high school -- will lead to plus command down the road and let his four-pitch mix, highlighted by a low-90s fastball with good movement and a potentially plus curve, play up. Murphy likely won't be rushed through the system given his age, but if everything comes together for him, in a few years he could emerge as a stingy mid-rotation option along the lines of a pre-injury Michael Soroka.
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