In Fantasy basketball, it's just as important to try to avoid potential busts in your draft as it is to identify productive sleepers. If you select the wrong player too early, it can hinder your ability to build a championship-caliber squad. Here are five potential busts to consider passing on while crafting your team.
Kyrie Irving, Brooklyn Nets
The headlines surrounding Irving have focused on his refusal to receive the COVID-19 vaccination at this time. Make no mistake about it: he's not the only player in the league who doesn't wish to take it. However, the fact that Irving plays for the Nets makes him different from most of those other players because New York mandates make him ineligible to play in home games if he's not vaccinated.
Andrew Wiggins faced a similar situation with the Warriors -- San Francisco has a similar mandate to that of New York City -- and he eventually relented and received the vaccine. With two weeks until the start of the regular season, there is no indication that Irving has been vaccinated or has changed his mind.
Irving is a unique individual who stepped away from the team a couple of times last season for personal reasons. He's also battled his share of injuries, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see him look at not playing at home as a bit of a rest bonus early in the season. In that case, he might just wait, only play on the road, and eventually get vaccinated as the playoffs get closer.
There's also a chance he could relent and opt to get vaccinated before the season, but that wouldn't eliminate the injury risks that have plagued him over the last five seasons, in particular. With a CBS ADP of 18.0, the multitude of risks that come with taking Irving could very well outweigh the potential rewards. When healthy and engaged, the 29-year-old is a first-round Fantasy value, but any manager taking him inside the top-20 must be prepared to embrace the unknown.
Kristaps Porzingis, Dallas Mavericks
There is no questioning Porzingis' skill. He's earned his nickname "The Unicorn" for a reason. Three times in his career, Porzingis has averaged at least 1.7 3-pointers and 2.0 blocks per game. He's averaged at least 2.3 3-pointers in each of the last two seasons, and he's put up at least 20.1 points and 8.9 rebounds in both of those campaigns.
The problem with Porzingis has been his inability to stay healthy. Thanks to an ever-increasing portfolio of lower-body injuries, the big man has played at least 70 games only once in his career, and he missed the 2018-19 season entirely. His composite ADP of 48.7 isn't overly inflated, but it lands him right around much safer options like Tobias Harris (44.3), CJ McCollum (48.3) and DeMar DeRozan (47.3). If this is the year Porzingis can finally stay on the floor, he could easily exceed that ADP. But history suggests Fantasy managers who reach for the 7-3 Latvian get burned more often than not.
John Collins, Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks made a push to build a winning roster last season, which ultimately helped them make the playoffs. However, the additions didn't help Collins, who saw his production decline significantly. He only averaged 29 minutes per game -- a decrease of four minutes per game compared to the prior season. He didn't exactly struggle, but his averages of 17.6 points and 7.4 rebounds were both his lowest marks since his rookie season.
Depth should again be a strength for the Hawks, especially with De'Andre Hunter and Cam Reddish back healthy. If there is a bit of good news for Collins, it's that he could spell Clint Capela more at center with Onyeka Okongwu (shoulder) expected to be out until around December. However, the Hawks did add a couple of veteran centers in Gorgui Dieng and Jahlil Okafor to provide insurance. Don't be surprised if Collins averages fewer than 30 minutes per game once again.
Myles Turner, Indiana Pacers
Turner provided a unique stat combination last season when he averaged 3.4 blocks and 1.5 3-pointers per game. Those marks both represented career-highs for the Texas product. Unfortunately for both the Pacers and Fantasy managers who drafted him, Turner was limited to 47 games because of a toe injury.
With all reports indicating he's healthy heading into this season, his early ADP checks in at 59.0. As impressive as he is with blocks and 3-pointers, Turner is pretty underwhelming in several other areas. He's averaged fewer than 13.0 points per game in three of the last four seasons. Also, he doesn't rebound at a high rate for a center, averaging just 6.6 per game for his career. Finally, he's shot lower than 48 percent from the field in three of the last four seasons. That's partially due to his relatively high 3-point volume, but it's still an underwhelming figure from the center position.
If Turner is going to average nearly three-and-a-half blocks per game again this season, then he's probably worth his current ADP. However, he had never averaged more than 2.7 per game prior to last season and has averaged 2.2 per game for his career. If he regresses closer to his career average, he's not nearly as valuable when you factor in his entire stat profile.
Mike Conley Jr., Utah Jazz
Conley was a key contributor for the Jazz last season, averaging 16.2 points, 3.5 rebounds, 6.0 assists, 1.4 steals and a career-high 2.7 3-pointers per game. He's now averaged at least 2.0 3-pointers in five straight seasons, showing significant improvement compared to the early part of his career. The problem was, he only appeared in 51 games because of injury. He also missed time during the playoffs, dealing a significant blow to the Jazz's championship aspirations.
When he's healthy, Conley is an excellent, upper-middle-tier Fantasy option. Unfortunately, he's 33 and rarely been healthy during the later stages of his career, playing no more than 70 games in any of the last seven seasons. Conley comes at a slight discount this season (APD: 76.0), so at that point he may be worth the risk.
