There are usually eight to 10 shooting guards who put up All-Star caliber stats each year from a fantasy perspective. Bradley Beal, Devin Booker, and Donovan Mitchell have stood out as mainstays among the top 10 in recent years, but identifying talent outside the group of players with top-five potential at the position is important too. This year's group could see quite a big change, as some major pieces have relocated ahead of the 2022-23 season.
I've factored in offseason roster movement to compile a list of a shooting sleeper, breakout candidate, and bust for fantasy managers to keep an eye on. Read below to get a feel for two targets you should consider going after and one you might want to avoid.
Sleeper
Please don't confuse this Oklahoma City Thunder guard with his teammate, Jaylin Williams. The lanky Santa Clara wing is 6'6" and boasts the kind of versatile skillset that teams have grown to covet among supersized ball handlers. While he has drafted one spot behind Ousmane Dieng, I expect him to be the Thunder's most impactful rookie in 2022-23 with Chet Holmgren out for the year. The 21-year-old will be more prepared for the league than many of his peers after nearly notching a 50/40/90 season in his final college run while averaging 18.0 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 4.2 assists per game. He appears to be Oklahoma City's top backup option at shooting guard and small forward. He'll surely get a shot at spot starts here and there for a Thunder team that's been known to let the young players loose toward the end of the year.
Breakout
Vassell cracked a top-30 shooting guard spot last year despite starting in less than half the games he appeared in. The San Antonio wing should start on a nightly basis with Dejounte Murray and Derrick White gone. Only Keldon Johnson and Jakob Poeltl scored more points than Vassell last season among returners, but the latter will surely be dangled as trade bait because of his expiring contract. Vassell will eclipse 30 minutes a night with Lonnie Walker gone and averaged 16.2 points, 5.7 rebounds, 2.5 assists, and 1.4 steals per 36 minutes last season. A healthy year could help him climb as high as the top 20 at his position.
Bust
Fournier was productive enough to finish as a top-20 shooting guard or small forward last year, but I have reason to believe he'll take a step back in his second season with the New York Knicks. They signed Jalen Brunson to a lucrative deal and were bullish on keeping Quentin Grimes on the roster during trade talks that could've landed them Donovan Mitchell. That suggests that the second-year wing out of Kansas is in for a bigger role in 2022-23, so Fournier's minutes could take a hit. It would be foolish to make Grimes the sole reason for Fournier's decline, though. The Frenchman appears to be locked in as a fourth option for a team that averaged 106.5 points per game (26th in the NBA) last season. Fewer touches for a low-scoring offense do not bode well for the 29-year-old wing.