It's easy to overrated rookies in Fantasy basketball. More than that, it's fun to do.
Sure, you could spend a mid-round pick on Jrue Holiday or LaMarcus Aldridge, and pretty much know what you're going to get. What's fun about reaching for young players, especially rookies, is they can be anything.
You haven't yet seen a rookie fail yet, which means you can see him succeeding in a thousand different ways. They are the ultimate upside plays, and because Fantasy sports is all about finding players who can exceed their acquisition price, targeting rookies is one way to find success.
Of course, most rookies don't hit. At least, not right away. Last season, Malcolm Brogdon, Joel Embiid, Dario Saric, Jamal Murray, Buddy Hield, Guillermo Hernangomez and more were all intermittently useful, but there wasn't a single rookie you could rely on all season long. The 2015 rookie class was only a little better -- Karl-Anthony Towns and Kristaps Porzingis were studs from Day 1, but everyone else had their ups and downs.
Here are five lottery picks I won't be going after in redraft leagues on Draft Day this fall:
No. 3 overall pick Jayson Tatum, F, Celtics
Jayson Tatum has talent. There's very little doubting that. However, in what will become a recurring theme here, talent isn't everything when it comes to Fantasy value. Fit is probably just as important, and it's not clear how Tatum fits into Boston's immediate future. He could start at power forward, but this is probably a team that needs to go in the opposite direction, given their issues on the glass last season.
The Celtics are obviously high on Tatum's talent, with Danny Ainge telling everyone who would listen he was the top player on their board even before they traded down from No. 1 to No. 3 overall. However, with Jae Crowder and Jaylen Brown around, there aren't a ton of minutes available at small forward, and the team's pursuit of Paul George and Gordon Hayward could leave even fewer. That could leave Tatum looking at a full-time power forward role, and it's not clear he's ready for that.
Tatum's talent isn't much of a question, but his immediate fit in Boston doesn't look conducive to Fantasy production, especially if he doesn't improve as a shooter and playmaker over the summer. He might be a scorer first on a team that doesn't have a huge need for that.
No. 6 overall pick Jonathan Isaac, F, Magic
Jonathan Isaac might have landed in the worst possible short-term spot possible, as the Magic already have too many frontcourt players and not enough spots. We've gnashed our teeth over the franchise's mishandling of Aaron Gordon for years, and now they have another combo forward to juggle. It would be workable, if awkward, with just Isaac and Gordon, but they also have big money invested in Nikola Vucevic and Bismack Biyombo in the frontcourt, and Terrence Ross and Evan Fournier on the wings, meaning any potential flexibility they might have been able to find with Isaac potentially sliding up to the five is probably lost.
As is, there just don't seem to be enough minutes for everyone to go around, and the fit is less than ideal even if Isaac gets on the floor with whatever combination of his Magic teammates you choose. Isaac could wind up being a Fantasy stud in the long run, potentially in the Myles Turner mold of a big who can protect the rim and stretch the floor, but it's hard to see that in his rookie season.
No. 8 overall pick Frank Ntilikina, G, Knicks
Having already struck gold with Porzingis, the great unknown of the 2015 Draft class, the Knicks went that route again, selecting Ntilikina with the No. 8 pick in the draft.
Ntilikina's athletic profile provides a lot to dream on. The 6-foot-5 point guard brings a nearly seven-foot wingspan and solid athleticism to the deal. Scouting reports see Ntilikina as a pass-first point guard, but he averaged just 2.7 assists per-36 for Strasbourg in 2016-17. If Ntilikina hits, he could be a huge value, and there isn't currently much competition at the point guard position in New York.
If he looks NBA-ready in the summer league, my tune on Ntilikina could change, but as things stand, it's hard to see investing much more than a late-round pick in him.
No. 10 overall pick Zach Collins, F, Trail Blazers
On a per-minute basis, Zach Collins' production as a freshman at Gonzaga is eye-popping. He averaged 23.2 points, 13.6 rebounds, and 4.1 blocks per-40 minutes, but played more than 20 in a game just eight times in 39 contests. Collins could develop into a starting-caliber big, and even shows range out to the 3-point line, but there just isn't going to be much playing time available for him in Portland.
The Blazers found their center of the future in Jusuf Nurkic last season, and Collins is likely to take a backseat to the likes of Al-Farouq Aminu in the short-term power forward rotation. That means, he's a bench guy, and probably not a key one.
No. 11 overall pick Malik Monk, G, Hornets
Malik Monk's skills are to be lauded.
e won SEC Player of the Year as a freshman, averaging 19.8 points per game while showcasing pretty solid efficiency. He turned the ball over just two times per game, despite a whopping 27.2 percent usage rate, and he shot 39.7 percent on 3-pointers and 45.0 percent from the field overall, proving effective as a tough shot-maker, despite being a bit undersized as a two guard. He should be able to score in the NBA from Day 1, but he probably won't have much of a role in Charlotte with Kemba Walker and Nicolas Batum holding down the starting guard spots.
Monk should come in and provide instant offense off the bench, but he's probably looking at a similar role to the one Marco Belinelli filled last season when he averaged 10.5 points in 24.0 minutes per game. That might be Monk's upside on this team, but his high draft position could lead some Fantasy owners to draft him earlier than needed.
Monk shouldn't be a total waste, but guards who can chip in 10 points and a few 3-pointers are a dime a dozen, and that isn't worth paying sticker price.
