As we look ahead to the second half of the season, most of the league is still looking to make a run to the playoffs. Even some of those teams without much apparent hope are still likely to scratch and claw through the final months of the season in an ultimately failed bid to gain some sort of relevance.
At some point, however, reality is going to take hold and teams are going to have to accept their place as lottery teams. Every year there are a handful of teams in the second half that turn their eyes to the future and begin building for next season and beyond.
There are always extenuating circumstances, of course. The Jazz traded Enes Kanter last season in another march toward the lottery, but emerged as one of the league's feistiest second-half teams, for instance. Figuring out who this year's Jazz will be could make or break your season -- Rudy Gobert won a lot of championships last season -- but figuring out who will be willing to tear it down, trade away veterans and hand the keys to young guys is arguably even more important.
Heading into play Wednesday, there are 10 teams who are at least five games back of a playoff spot in either conference. Why five games back? Well, it allows us to get to an even 10 teams, which is always nice; but also because there seems to be a pretty big difference between the likes of the Knicks, Bucks, Kings and Nuggets than the Wizards, Trail Blazers and Hornets.
What will these 10 teams do down the stretch? Only time will tell, but here are the key signs to keep in mind as we move through the break and into the second half of the season.
Eastern Conference
Knicks
Shutdown Candidates: Carmelo Anthony
When asked about Anthony's lingering left knee soreness, team president Phil Jackson had this to say:
"We need to balance all that out. His playing time, how much he has to rely on getting therapy, staying off, practicing, not practicing and then his time on the floor itself and what his role is going to be."
Trade Rumors: "Like any team looking to improve themselves, we are open to discussion," Jackson said to ESPN. "We have to be. That is just the way of the nature of the game."
Young Players: Kristaps Porzingis, Langston Galloway, Lance Thomas, Jerian Grant
The Knicks already fired their head coach, but that is a move you can spin both ways; they fired Derek Fisher to try to turn the season around, or to start looking ahead to the future. Anthony's knee may decide which way things go ultimately, though losers of nine out of 10 may not end up having a choice. I would like to see Porzingis featured more on offense, with Grant hopefully getting a chance to earn the point guard role for the future.
Bucks
Shutdown Candidates: N/A
Trade Rumors: "[Michael Carter-Williams] isn't the only frontline player the Bucks are apparently willing to move. A much bigger surprise is the Bucks have made known that center Greg Monroe is available at the right price, according to some NBA officials," RacineSportsZone.com reported.
Young Players: Jabari Parker, Giannis Antetokounmpo
The Bucks could go for a mulligan on the Carter-Williams trade and Monroe signing, which would certainly open up a lot of interesting possibilities down the stretch. Hopefully they focus on continuing to develop Parker and Antetokounmpo into go-to offensive options, with some potential for lanky big man John Henson to get extended run and help someone steal a blocks lead.
Nets
Shutdown Candidates: N/A
Trade Rumors:
Young Players: Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Chris McCullough, Shane Larkin
I almost put an "N/A" for young players, with Larkin and McCullough doing little to impress and Hollis-Jefferson coming off a serious leg injury. The only way you can really see a Fantasy difference-maker emerging from this roster late is if the Nets move Thaddeus Young or Brook Lopez for some young players with upside.
76ers
Shutdown Candidates: N/A
Trade Rumors: It's a long shot, but ...
Don't lose sleep over it.
Young Players: Everyone
They have a bit more structure in place than a year ago, with Jahlil Okafor and Ish Smith in particular helping settle the offense down. Still, that doesn't mean someone like Nik Stauskas, Hollis Thompson, Jerami Grant or Jakarr Sampson can't emerge late in the season to help you down the stretch. At the very least, we know they'll get the opportunity on this team.
Western Conference
Kings
Shutdown Candidates: N/A
Trade Rumors: The Kings reportedly turned down an offer from the Cavaliers for center Timofey Mozgov. Now that rumors surrounding George Karl's job have been put to bed -- for now, which isn't necessarily a meaningful time span for the Kings -- we should start to hear more about their rumored willingness to move Rudy Gay, as well.
Young Players: Willie Cauley-Stein
This team fervently believes it has the talent to make the playoffs, and part of Karl's lack of job security comes from that fact. That makes them extremely hard to predict, because the Kings are liable to make a panic move at some point. It's hard to see them fully pulling the plug on the season; if any team is going to rage against the dying of the light, it's this one.
Nuggets
Shutdown Candidates: Jusus Nurkic, Jameer Nelson,
Trade Rumors: The Celtics reportedly have interest in Danilo Gallinari, and Kenneth Faried seems to be constantly available. With the emergence of Nikola Jokic, second-year big man Joffrey Lauvergne could be available as well.
Young Players: Emmanuel Mudiay, Nikola Jokic, Nurkic, Gary Harris, Lauvergne,
This might be the team to watch down the stretch. The Nuggets are loaded with recent lottery picks and have an intriguing mix of young players who could break out and established players who might be on the move. They also have a logjam in the frontcourt with Nurkic, Jokic and Lauvergne all looking like long-term keepers of various flavors. If Nurkic's troublesome knee leads to an early shutdown, Jokic could be this year's version of Gobert. Keep a close eye on that.
Pelicans
Shutdown Candidates: Anthony Davis, Jrue Holiday, Eric Gordon
Trade Rumors: CBSSports.com NBA Insider Ken Berger reported this Tuesday:
New Orleans has gotten inquiries on Ryan Anderson, though thus far has indicated little appetite for trading him. The Pelicans have, on the other hand, exhibited a willingness to consider deals for Eric Gordon and/or Tyreke Evans.
ESPN.com also reported the Cavaliers' interest in Evans and Omer Asik.
Young Players: N/A
What a mess. The Pelicans already shut down Tyreke Evans with a third knee surgery in 12 months, and the injury history of Holiday, Davis and Gordon make them all risks to be set down as well. Unfortunately, they also don't have many young players who could make an impact in a larger role. It really is the worst of both worlds, though if any of their high-usage players does go down, it is going to create an opportunity for someone. It just might be someone signed off the scrap heap at the last minute, ala Lester Hudson with the 2011-12 Cavaliers. Yeah, it's that kind of ugly in New Orleans.
Timberwolves
Shutdown Candidates: Kevin Garnett, Nikola Pekovic, Tayshaun Prince, Ricky Rubio
Trade Rumors: Kevin Martin remains a prime trade candidate, but the Wolves have reportedly been looking for more than just a salary dump for the veteran scorer.
Young Players:Everyone
The Timberwolves really don't have much room to change their rotation to accommodate more young guys, but getting Garnett, Prince and Martin out of the rotation could help free up some space for guys like Zach LaVine, Shabazz Muhammadd and Gorgui Dieng to spread their wings.
Suns
Shutdown Candidates: Brandon Knight, Tyson Chandler
Trade Rumors: ESPN reported this last week:
Most rival executives believe it remains a matter of when, not if, Phoenix trades disgruntled swingman Markieff Morris. The Suns, though, stubbornly continue to hold out for stronger offers
The key will be whether Morris' recent return to the starting lineup is a sign of the team's willingness to work through the issues with him, or an attempt to goose his flagging trade appeal.
Young Players: Devin Booker, Archie Goodwin, Alex Len
The Suns have already begun the tanking, and Goodwin and Booker should be owned across the board. We'll see if Knight's groin injury leads them to shut him down, and if Chandler becomes trade bait as well. The most interesting question is obviously Morris' status, as he remains one of the most frustratingly inconsistent players in the league. If they choose to keep him, he could have a huge second half, especially if Knight is shut down. If he is traded, however, there's a chance Morris is relegated to a much smaller role on a new team. He could be one of the keys to the Fantasy season.
Lakers
Shutdown Candidates: Kobe Bryant
Trade Rumors: The Lakers have a number of veterans who have been mentioned in rumors, including Roy Hibbert, Lou Williams, Brandon Bass and Nick Young.
Young Players: D'Angelo Russell, Jordan Clarkson, Julius Randle
It's hard to see Bryant making it to the end of the season; of course, it was hard to see him making it to this point of the season when we started, so kudos to him. He has started to take on a bit of a smaller role as the season has gone on, and that is a trend I would like to continue to see as his farewell tour winds down. Play the first quarter, jack up some off-balance jumpers to give the fans one last look, and then clear the way for the young guys. I expect the Lakers to look significantly different after the trade deadline, and hopefully that will lead Byron Scott to trust the young guys. I'm not holding my breath, but it's possible.