Gavin Stone is one of the toughest players in baseball to figure out right now. That might seem like a weird thing to say about a guy who just tossed a complete game shutout to lower his ERA to 2.73, but that's where we're at.
Stone was, obviously, excellent Wednesday, though the matchup against the White Sox certainly helped. His command was impeccable, but he also allowed 23 balls in play with an average exit velocity of 91.2 mph and probably had at least a little bit of good luck on his side – White Sox hitters went just 2 for 6 on batted balls with an xBA of at least .500. And, despite the dominant line, Stone had a merely decent 10 swinging strikes on 103 pitches, with a pretty mediocre 26% CSW (called-plus-swinging-strike) rate.
And that's kind of the story of Stone's season right now. The results are, obviously, terrific, especially since the start of May – he has a 1.97 ERA over his past 10 starts. In those 10 starts, he has 52 strikeouts in 64 innings of work, with just 13 walks and five homers allowed. Add it all up, and Stone has a strikeout rate below 20%, a walk rate around 7%, and very good quality of contact metrics – his .347 xwOBA on contact entering Wednesday's night was quite a bit better than the .369 league average.
And with that Dodgers team backing him up, maybe that's all that matters. Okay, maybe he isn't quite sub-3.00 ERA good, but if his 3.75 xERA is more like what we should expect, isn't that enough to make him a must-start pitcher on the Dodgers? Probably so, but the margin for error might be thin, given his lack of strikeouts. He'll continue to be dependent on having plus control and excellent results on balls in play, and the number of pitchers you can consistently rely on to thrive in that manner is pretty small. There's nothing wrong with being Chris Bassitt, but there's a reason there's only one Chris Bassitt.
Does that make Gavin Stone a sell-high candidate? Yeah, sure. Anyone with a sub-2.00 ERA over a multi-month span is probably a sell-high candidate. But that doesn't mean I expect the bottom to fall out. Stone has been a much-improved pitcher, and he deserves credit for that, even if I don't quite buy what he's done so far.
Here's what else you need to know about from Wednesday's action, beginning with the top waiver-wire targets:
Thursday's top waiver targets
Noelvi Marte, 3B, Reds (61%) – The excitement around Noelvi Marte's expected return started to dissolve when he went on his minor-league rehab assignment, which saw him go just 8 for 53 with 15 strikeouts in 12 innings. However, despite those struggles, Marte is with the Reds and it sounds like he's going to be in the lineup Thursday after all. Given his struggles, it seems like there's a decent chance Marte struggles too much to matter for Fantasy, but he's a consensus top-25 prospect in baseball who hit .316/.366/.456 with a 14-homer, 28-steal pace in 35 games last season. There's risk, to be sure, but the upside here is pretty obvious, and is worth chasing at a time when offense remains frustratingly hard to find.
Jhonkensy Noel, OF, Guardians (6%) – Have you been pining for the days of Franmil Reyes in Cleveland? Well, I've got great news for you. That might be an overly simplistic way of describing Noel as a player, but it probably isn't wrong – he's got truly massive power potential, and he wasted no time in showing that off with a 413-foot, 107-mph homer in his first major-league plate appearance. And, of course, there's a ton of swing and miss in his game, too, which he also showed off by striking out twice in his debut. Noel's production has really jumped around in the minors, and he is a career .243/.319/.467 hitter in 207 games at Triple-A, where he has struck out 24% of the time. He's cut that to 21% so far this season and is extremely young for the amount of experience he has at the highest level of the minors, not turning 23 for another three weeks. Maybe he's made the necessary adjustments to tap into his power a bit more consistently … or maybe he's just starting to figure out Triple-A after spending all of last year. Scouts aren't necessarily optimistic about Noel's chances of making this all work, but he does have a standout skill, and is worth a look in deeper leagues just in case his apparent leap at Triple-A this season is real.
Brandon Marsh, OF, Phillies (46%) – I'm not sure Marsh will ever be consistent enough to truly matter in all Fantasy leagues, but he's pretty useful when he gets hot, and hopefully Wednesday was the start of him getting hot. He went 4 for 4 with a homer and three other batted balls over 90 mph. Marsh hasn't been doing much else prior to that, with no homers since April 26, so again, the hope is this is the start of Marsh getting hot. Let's see.
Spencer Arrighetti, SP, Astros (19%) – 58 pitchers have had at least 10 strikeouts in a start this season prior to Wednesday night, and it goes without saying that not all of them are Fantasy-relevant names. Even if you limit it to 10 strikeouts and zero walks like Arrighetti had, you'll still get some names like Dan Dunning, DJ Herz, Casey Mize, and Chris Paddack who are on the fringes of Fantasy relevance, at best. The likeliest outcome with Arrighetti is that he's part of that latter group, especially having done it against the Rockies away from Coors Field, one of the most exploitable matchups in the game these days. Still, Arrighetti has flashed upside before, and has a couple of secondary pitches that look like they should be real weapons – he had 10 of his 13 whiffs Wednesday with his curveball and sweeper, a sign of what those pitches can be capable of. Expectations moving forward should be tempered, but with matchups against the Blue Jays and Twins in his next two scheduled starts, Arrighetti might just be able to close out the first half strong.
Hayden Birdsong, SP, Giants (7%) – The results weren't overwhelming for Birdsong's debut, but I saw plenty to get excited about here, led by his fastball, which was actually even more impressive than I expected. He averaged 96.2 mph with the pitch and generated five of his nine whiffs against the Cubs. It wasn't a dominant showing overall, but it's a legitimate four-pitch mix with what could be a very good four-seamer, and Birdsong will call one of the best parks in baseball for a pitcher home if he sticks around. If he stays on schedule, Birdsong's next two starts would be in Atlanta and Cleveland, which is probably asking too much to expect him to be useful for Fantasy there. But in a deeper league, he's worth a speculative add just to see where he goes from here.
David Festa, SP, Twins (12%) – Festa's profile is pretty similar to Birdsong's, as neither has overwhelming numbers in the minors nor huge prospect pedigree. But he has a very good fastball and pretty massive strikeout numbers to his name in Triple-A, and looks like he can be a pretty useful Fantasy option if he can keep the walks under control – he has a 10.9% walk rate in 72 career Triple-A innings. I'm not sprinting out to add Festa right now, but I'm interested to see how he looks in his debut Thursday against the Diamondbacks.
