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The final week of the preseason brought us something less than resolution, but perhaps a hint of what is to come, in the two biggest stories of the summer. Ezekiel Elliott's case is headed to the courts and Andrew Luck is off the PUP list. These are both good news for their Fantasy value, but has the public overreacted?
Of course, this final week was about roster cutdowns as well and while there were few draftable players cut, the door was opened for more volume for a pair of running backs.
Let's get straight to the big news.
"Ezekiel Elliott is a top-five pick now that his case has gone to court"
Unless you've been living under a rock, you undoubtedly heard that last week Ezekiel Elliott decided not to wait for an appeal ruling from Harold Henderson on his six-game suspension. Instead, he sued the NFL while also requesting a temporary restraining order that would allow him to play until the case is resolved.
If you're having deja vu, don't be alarmed. Yes, this is very similar to what Tom Brady did and we all remember the result of that. Brady played the entire 2015 season while the case played out in court. That should be the expectation for Elliott as well, which is why Jamey Eisenberg has him ranked as his No. 3 running back again.
If you already drafted Elliott in the second or third round you should be ecstatic, because he's a top-five pick now.
Verdict: Don't believe it
As WIll Brinson wrote in his breakdown of the situation, we know nothing. We can guess, but that's about it. We don't know for sure whether Henderson won't reduce the suspension, leading to Elliott dropping his case. We don't know if the judge in this case will allow Elliott's request for a TRO considering all past evidence suggests that Roger Goodell and the NFL can discipline players any way they like, fair or not. We don't even know if Elliott will be available for Week 1 against the Giants, although we should know that by 4 PM EST on Tuesday.
I want to be clear, I'm not saying Elliott won't play 16 games. It's very possible. It's just far from a certainty. Everything is on the table right now, including the commissioner's exempt list that cost Adrian Peterson most of a season. I can't draft Elliott in the first round with this many unknowns, and I'd be happy to trade him to any owner who thinks I'm wrong. A.J. Green is one of the most undervalued players by CBS ADP, in fact he is worth a top-five pick in my mind. If the Green owner would trade him to you for Elliott straight up, I'd do it in a heartbeat.
"Andrew Luck is a huge value now that he's off the PUP list"
The Colts waited until the very last moment, taking Luck of the PUP list late Saturday afternoon. But Luck owners shouldn't worry about the timing, they should just bask in their good fortune. Luck was falling to the 10th round or later in many drafts this past week, as fear that he wouldn't be ready for the start of the season grew. With this move he's eligible to start practicing and even play in Week 1.
While that's optimistic, a week or two without Luck is fine considering he's a top-four quarterback when he's healthy. You can find a place-holder (Carson Palmer) for the first couple of weeks of the season and then ride Luck to a championship as the best value of the draft.
Verdict: Don't believe it
All this means is that the Colts are expecting Andrew Luck to be available in the first six weeks of the season. I would not get too excited here.
The fact that Luck is recovering from a shoulder injury and did no work with his teammates in the preseason is still extremely concerning. Even if he returns to practice in some form this week, I wouldn't not expect him to play until Week 3. I would also not be surprised if he's out for the first quarter of the season.
Finally, don't expect 2014 Andrew Luck to come strolling through that door in his first game back. He will likely be rusty. Luck is a fine value in the double digit rounds, but his owners need to be prepared to spend another month waiting on him.
"Carlos Hyde is a high-volume, high-upside running back again"
Before we get started let's all pour one out for the Joe Williams hype train. Tim Hightower, we didn't forget you. Kapri Bibbs, the Broncos thank you for your service and the fourth round pick you landed them.
The San Francisco 49ers spent a lot of time, money and draft capital trying to replace Carlos Hyde this summer before realizing (like so many of us already knew) he's pretty good. Now they head into the season with Hyde and a collection of UDFAs (led by Matt Breida). Oh yeah, and the highest paid fullback in NFL history.
We won't get into how smart San Francisco's plan of attack was, just know this: Hyde is an extremely talented running back who has succeeded in a terrible situation before. If he stays healthy, he has top-10 potential. Start him with confidence in Week 1 and beyond.
Verdict: Believe it
Hyde ran for 4.6 yards per carry in arguably a worse situation in 2016. He's never had a year below 4 yards per carry. Yes, he has injury concerns, but on a week-to-week basis he's a must-start when he's in the lineup. Especially considering his likely increased usage in the passing game.
Hyde totaled 1,151 total yards and nine touchdowns in 2016 despite the fact that he missed three games and only saw 33 targets. His upside is 1,500 total yards and 40 receptions in 2017.
"LeSean McCoy is a threat to lead the NFL in touches this season"
One of the more surprising cuts of the past week was Jonathan Williams. Williams has looked good in limited action and he was the only qualified back up to LeSean McCoy in Buffalo. There's little doubt that Williams will be picked up by someone soon, but the depth chart in Buffalo now leaves much to be desired.
Joe Banyard now looks like the backup running back, though Patrick DiMarco and Mike Tolbert could both see work in short yardage and the passing game. This is a team that gave over 500 touches to their running backs in 2016 and traded away their best receiver in the offseason. McCoy is going to be fed like no one else.
Verdict: Believe it
I have McCoy ranked as the No. 4 running back behind David Johnson, Le'Veon Bell and Devonta Freeman, but he has the upside to be the No. 1 back on volume alone. His career high in carries is 314 (2013) and he caught 78 passes in 2010. Could McCoy challenge both of those marks? Absolutely. Then why do I have him ranked No. 4?
Rankings are combination of upside and risk, and a 29 year-old back on a very bad team is already pretty risky. When you add in the idea that his team looks like they want to give him 25 touches a game, well that's scary.