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Unless you know the leanings of your league mates before they even make a pick, most drafts should be entered with an agnostic view of any particular draft strategy. You shouldn't be ignorant of the strategies; no not at all. You should be well-educated and ready to use a variety of methods, depending on where the draft leads you. But still, you should enter the draft with no intentional positional strategy.
That also means not ruling out a particular strategy, and ADP suggests many of you have done just that. According to CBS ADP, there are nine running backs being drafted in the first 10 picks. Extend that a bit further and you'll see 11 of the first 16 picks are running backs. That means Michael Thomas and Keenan Allen are falling behind Jerick McKinnon, Christian McCaffrey and, yes, Aaron Rodgers. And that is the biggest reason why zero-RB as a strategy is still alive and well.
Before we get into how you might use this strategy when the opportunity presents itself, let's talk a little bit about why you might use this strategy:
- Value: I touched on it above, but this may well be the only reason you need. If you're at end of the first round and you're choosing between the second best receiver and the 10th best running back this should be a pretty easy choice. In 2017, in a down year for receivers, the No. 2 receiver outscored the No. 10 running back by 29 Fantasy points ... in non-PPR. In 2015, a bad year for running backs, the difference was 70 Fantasy points.
- Format: If you're in a league that requires three receivers and a flex, and uses PPR scoring, this may be a better strategy even if your first round is more balanced than ADP suggests. The fact is, in those types of leagues you're going to start twice as many receivers as running backs most weeks. If I have the opportunity to have four of the top-24 receivers and piece together my running backs, I'm jumping on it.
- Risk: Despite last year's injuries to Odell Beckham, Jordy Nelson and Julian Edelman I think we can all agree running backs have historically been more of an injury risk than receiver. It only makes sense that being tackled 250-plus times a year is more dangerous than being tackled 80-plus times a year. Losing your first and/or second round pick to injury is a difficult thing to overcome in Fantasy. Naturally, you're exposing yourself to more injury risk by selecting a running back in the first two rounds of the draft.
- Draft position: Admittedly, I don't have much interest in this strategy if I have one of the top three picks. I'll take Todd Gurley, Le'veon Bell, or Ezekiel Elliott and move on. Yes, some of the points above still apply, but I'm not passing on one of the Big Three. But when I'm at the back half of the draft zero-RB often becomes my preferred strategy.
Before I get to the players I'm targeting based on current ADP there is one trend that has happened over the last few weeks that isn't fully baked into ADP yet: It's been a pretty terrible preseason for rookie running backs. Ronald Jones is still behind Peyton Barber while both Rashaad Penny and Sony Michel have suffered injuries that may cost them the rest of the preseason. Their ADP is plummeting and they're all the perfect type of running back to target for this strategy. Pair them with safer backs who will have roles to start the year and by midseason you may end up with a top-20 back or two to go along with your elite receivers.
Also, it's important to talk about how long you can wait to take a running back. For this particular piece I'm looking at running backs starting in Round 6. That means I'm trying to land three-to-four receivers, an elite tight end and maybe even an elite quarterback. This doesn't mean you should take Aaron Rodgers at his ADP, but if the rest of your league is wise to waiting on quarterback I'd snatch him up in Round 4.
Now let's get into the running backs to target if you're brave enough to stockpile elite players while everyone else is taking running backs. If you wait until the sixth round, I'd be prepared to draft at least six running backs and maybe use your next five picks on the position.
Round 6-7
Format matters when parsing these running backs. Rex Burkhead and Dion Lewis are better targets in the PPR format; Marshawn Lynch benefits greatly when catches don't count. Jamaal Williams and Kerryon Johnson are two backs who could see their ADP rise out of this range, but for now they look like outstanding values in either format. There isn't a back I'd consider a bell-cow in this category, but you don't have to have a bell cow when you're getting the production you'll be getting out of your other positions.
Round 8-9
This is the point in the draft where I like to target the starting running backs the Fantasy community would prefer to pretend are not actually starting running backs:
- Carlos Hyde was a top-10 running back last year while sharing time with Matt Breida. He's certain to be less valuable in PPR with Duke Johnson there, but his usage in the first week of the preseason doesn't suggest any type of competition from Nick Chubb early in the year.
- Isaiah Crowell has always been in a time share and he's also always outperformed where he's being drafted this year.
- Marlon Mack and Chris Carson are backs I feel pretty confident will start Week 1, but far less confident that will last all year. If I'm taking them, it's likely because I have some of those high-upside rookies discussed above but want to make sure I've covered myself for the start of the season.
Round 10-12
If you're in a PPR league you'll have to target Duke Johnson and Giovani Bernard a little earlier than this, but they'll be worth it. Bernard and Matt Breida are the types of backs who could be useful even if there isn't an injury in front of them, but top-15 backs if there is. Due to Aaron Jones' suspension, I do expect he'll need some help to be Fantasy relevant but he possesses huge upside if Williams struggles or misses time. Which back you choose here has more to do with your current stable of running backs than anything else. If I feel confident I already have a pair of top-25 backs I'm more likely to take a shot on Jones.
Round 13 and beyond
For the most part this is a group of running backs you are won't be excited to count as your starters. But someone is going to be the lead back in Washington, and it's looking more likely that Barber is going to start Week 1 for Tampa Bay. Those three are depth that can hold you over while you wait for your upside backs to earn starting roles.
Jordan Wilkins is the opposite.
Wilkins is a favorite of Jamey Eisenberg, and if Mack proves he can't stay healthy Wilkins may get an opportunity to make Jamey look like a genius The Colts have an improved offensive line and Andrew Luck will give whoever runs the ball a lot more room to maneuver. I don't love handcuffs, but pairing Mack in Round 8 with Wilikins at the end of the draft is not a bad idea at all.
I've given you a lot of names above, so to help clarify I've given you a snapshot of what a well-executed zero-RB approach would look like from the 10th spot in the draft. This is based on current CBS ADP, so the exciting rookies are not included, but there's a solid chance by the time your draft rolls around you'll be able to replace Mack and Carson with Jones and Penny if you prefer.
QB1 Philip Rivers (Round 9)
RB1 Kerryon Johnson (Round 6)
RB2 Jamaal Williams (Round 7)
RB3 Marlon Mack (Round 8)
RB4 Chris Carson (Round 10)
RB5 Giovani Bernard (Round 11)
RB6 Jordan Wilkins (Round 13)
WR1 DeAndre Hopkins (Round 1)
WR2 Michael Thomas (Round 2)
WR3 Adam Thielen (Round 4)
WR4 Marvin Jones (Round 5)
WR5 Kenny Stills (Round 12)
TE1 Zach Ertz (Round 3)