When I'm looking for a breakout, I'm looking for guys who are going to do something they've never done before. Kind of. They may have done it before in a small sample size like Jameis Winston or Dalvin Cook. Or they may have shown efficiency but not truly broken out because of volume concerns like Kenyan Drake or Tyler Lockett. They've probably shown something that makes us think they have league-winning upside.
That's the second thing I'm looking for in a breakout. I don't just want someone who is going to beat their career best by a 100 yards or a couple of touchdowns. I want someone who can smash their past performances and their expectations for 2019. I still believe these nine players from Breakouts 1.0 have that potential:
Deshaun Watson, QB, HOU
Leonard Fournette, RB, JAC
Kenyan Drake, RB, MIA
Kerryon Johnson, RB, DET
Rashaad Penny, RB, SEA
Chris Godwin, WR, TB
Dede Westbrook, WR JAC
O.J. Howard, TE, TB
Hunter Henry, TE LAC
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But that's not all. Here are six more breakouts who can win you your league with a full breakout:
Heath's Breakouts
Projections powered by
Sportsline
I promise, this is the last year I'm going to talk about games Winston started and finished. Hopefully it's the last year I have to. But in 2017 he averaged 306 yards per game he started and finished. Last year he started nine games and averaged 294 yards per game. There's every reason to expect if he plays 16 games he'll be among the league leaders in passing yards. He has a very talented set of pass-catchers and his defense is absolutely atrocious, which should keep him passing. The way this really pays off is if Winston quickly acclimates to the sytem of Bruce Arians and Byron Leftwich. If he does, and he stays healthy, Winston could be one of the top quarterbacks in Fantasy this season.
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Like Winston, Cook was one of our favorite breakout candidates in 2018. And like Winston, a change in offensive coordinator could help make that a reality in 2019. After Kevin Stefanski took over, the Vikings ran the ball on nearly 50% of their offensive snaps. Cook ran 46 times for 258 yards in those final three games. He also caught eight passes for 83 yards. With the Vikings defensive prowess and offensive game plan, it's easy to see how Cook could earn 300 touches in 2019, as long as he can stay healthy. The absence of Latavius Murray could mean he gets into the end zone more often as well.
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Williams has never topped 50 carries or 416 total yards in any regular season, so it won't be hard for him to do something he's never done. But it also isn't hard to see how he could win you your league. In his past six games (including the playoffs) he ran the ball 77 times for 376 yards and six touchdowns. He also caught 28 passes for 226 yards and four touchdowns. Yes, I know how silly it is to talk about someone's "pace," but let's do it anyway. Williams' pace was for 1,605 total yards, 75 receptions, and 27 touchdowns. Will he do that in 2019? Probably not, but he may very well be a top-five running back in PPR. Andy Reid has a long history of outstanding production from his running backs, and the Chiefs have been crystal clear who their starter is this season.
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Over the past three seasons no wide receiver (minimum 150 targets) has been more efficient than Tyler Lockett (10.23 yards per target). The only two other receivers with at least 10 yards per target? Julio Jones and Tyreek Hill. The reason Lockett hasn't yet been an elite Fantasy receiver is volume. But with Doug Baldwin gone in Seattle there's reason to think that can change. Russell Wilson has historically thrown 22-to-24 percent of his passes to his No. 1 receiver, and there should be little doubt that Lockett is his No. 1 in 2019. That should mean at least 100 targets and could mean as many as 120 if the Seahawks defense struggles and Wilson is forced to throw more.
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The math isn't quite as simple on a D.J. Moore breakout, but it isn't that hard either. As a 21-year-old, Moore caught 51 passes for 788 yards and ran for another 172 yards. His biggest games came with Devin Funchess out, and now Funchess has moved on to Indianapolis. His quarterback looks healthy after offseason shoulder surgery and Moore should be even better in his second year in this system. He was on a 900-yard pace the past 13 games of 2018 and nearly an 1,100-yard pace in his past seven. The sky is the limit for this former first-rounder.
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Kirk wasn't as impressive as Moore in his rookie campaign, but it would have been hard for any receiver to be good in Arizona last year. Now there's all kinds of excitement surrounding the Cardinals with Kyler Murray and Kliff Kingsbury in town. I'm a little skeptical about just how awesome this offense will be, but I do feel confident the Cardinals will play faster, and Kirk should be the main beneficiary in the receiving corps. I feel more comfortable viewing Kirk as my No. 3 receiver, but if all the optimism is validated there's no reason he can't be a top-20 wide receiver.
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