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Wideouts bounced back in a big way last year. As a whole, receivers scored a record-high 532 touchdowns to boost their Fantasy numbers. Their running back counterparts didn't average as many Fantasy points per game in PPR based on top-12 (0.3 higher), top-24 (1.9 higher) or top-36 averages (1.8 higher). Can't remember the last time that happened.
But it might not happen again. Due to training camp injuries to receivers like Keenan Allen and Amari Cooper, uncertain situations surrounding Antonio Brown and T.Y. Hilton and a lack of reliable stud-muffin pass-catchers, the position has not only become top-heavy but insanely popular! Between fourth and 20th overall, expect all of the top-8 receivers to be gone.
The good news? The position is rich with receivers with a 900-1,200-yard profile. So missing out on those top-eight receivers isn't so bad.
In addition to knowing your lineup requirements and scoring system, you must answer these questions before you draft:
- How risk-averse are you?
- How badly do you want to fill your starting lineup with no-brainers?
- How deep do you think this position is?
- Are you good at finding replacement receivers off waivers?
The first two questions go hand-in-hand: Wide receivers are generally safer than their running back counterparts, but they typically don't score as much in non-PPR, and only the top guys come close to matching up in PPR. The more of those "safe" picks you want for your starting group, the more receivers you should target early in your draft. You won't get any of them if you have a top-3 pick.
You can use my tiers to determine how deep you think the position is, but after stewing on this for six months (that's right, while you were living your life, I was studying these guys), I feel real good about the wideouts in the first four or five rounds being good enough to start. I'm also confident that the receivers in the fifth and sixth tiers make up a bunch of breakout and sleeper candidates who carry enough upside to warrant starting. You should find the entire class to your liking and may even decide to wait to draft your third or fourth receivers.
That last question? I'm not you, so I can't exactly answer that. But if you've played Fantasy Football for a while, you know that there are receivers with at least decent upside on waivers every week. No one who will cement himself into a starting spot, but someone who offers a chance at scoring a touchdown, going for 70 yards, etc. The better you (and we) are at finding them, the less urgency you'll need to draft deep.
Just know that nearly every Fantasy manager will select at least one very good receiver before the end of Round 3. That doesn't mean it's a mistake to lock up two of them if you want to differentiate your lineup, but that is a move that's best saved for PPR formats and smaller leagues (10 or fewer teams).
But the safest plan on Draft Day is to pick enough receivers from the top-five or six tiers to cover your starting spots, then another two or three for the bench. And always remember that receivers who tend to play the best in Fantasy are those who regularly get a piece of the target share from good quarterbacks. When you're drafting a receiver who doesn't already carry stud status, ask yourself if he has the potential for 120 targets (to yield 70-plus receptions) and/or eight touchdowns. Those are the stats we're shooting for from the non-obvious guys in Round 6 and beyond. The more of those players you get, the more likely you'll compete for a trophy in December.
What about Zero WR?
Imagine not taking your first receiver until after 50th overall.That's the kind of plan you're going to have to follow if you insist on drafting two stud running backs and a stud tight end with your first trio of picks. This is do-able in smaller non-PPR formats and it carries a chance at being wildly successful, especially if you pull the lever on the right receivers starting in Round 5. Heath cummings lays out a blueprint for it here.
Wide Receivers - PPR
D. Hopkins
KC
DeAndre Hopkins
KC
|
J. Jones
PHI
Julio Jones
PHI
|
D. Adams
NYJ
Davante Adams
NYJ
|
O. Beckham Jr.
MIA
Odell Beckham Jr.
MIA
|
T. Hill
MIA
Tyreek Hill
MIA
|
M. Thomas
NO
Michael Thomas
NO
|
M. Evans
TB
Mike Evans
TB
|
K. Allen
CHI
Keenan Allen
CHI
|
J. Edelman
NE
Julian Edelman
NE
|
B. Cooks
DAL
Brandin Cooks
DAL
|
A. Thielen
CAR
Adam Thielen
CAR
|
A. Brown
TB
Antonio Brown
TB
|
T. Hilton
DAL
T.Y. Hilton
DAL
|
S. Diggs
HOU
Stefon Diggs
HOU
|
A. Cooper
BUF
Amari Cooper
BUF
|
C. Godwin
TB
Chris Godwin
TB
|
C. Kupp
LAR
Cooper Kupp
LAR
|
C. Ridley
TEN
Calvin Ridley
TEN
|
R. Woods
HOU
Robert Woods
HOU
|
T. Lockett
SEA
Tyler Lockett
SEA
|
K. Golladay
NYG
Kenny Golladay
NYG
|
T. Boyd
TEN
Tyler Boyd
TEN
|
J. Gordon
TEN
Josh Gordon
TEN
|
A. Green
ARI
A.J. Green
ARI
|
A. Robinson
DET
Allen Robinson
DET
|
A. Jeffery
PHI
Alshon Jeffery
PHI
|
M. Williams
NYJ
Mike Williams
NYJ
|
C. Samuel
BUF
Curtis Samuel
BUF
|
R. Chosen
MIA
Robbie Chosen
MIA
|
D. Westbrook
GB
Dede Westbrook
GB
|
C. Kirk
JAC
Christian Kirk
JAC
|
S. Shepard
TB
Sterling Shepard
TB
|
W. Fuller
MIA
Will Fuller
MIA
|
E. Sanders
BUF
Emmanuel Sanders
BUF
|
C. Davis
NYJ
Corey Davis
NYJ
|
J. Landry
NO
Jarvis Landry
NO
|
D. Jackson
BAL
DeSean Jackson
BAL
|
L. Fitzgerald
ARI
Larry Fitzgerald
ARI
|
S. Watkins
BAL
Sammy Watkins
BAL
|
D. Pettis
NO
Dante Pettis
NO
|
M. Jones
DET
Marvin Jones
DET
|
T. Williams
DET
Tyrell Williams
DET
|
J. Crowder
WAS
Jamison Crowder
WAS
|
A. Miller
BAL
Anthony Miller
BAL
|
D. Moncrief
HOU
Donte Moncrief
HOU
|
G. Allison
ATL
Geronimo Allison
ATL
|
J. Brown
BUF
John Brown
BUF
|
K. Coutee
MIA
Keke Coutee
MIA
|
J. Washington
ATL
James Washington
ATL
|
M. Gallup
LV
Michael Gallup
LV
|
D. Hamilton
MIA
DaeSean Hamilton
MIA
|
A. Wilson
LV
Albert Wilson
LV
|
C. Sutton
DEN
Courtland Sutton
DEN
|
K. Stills
NO
Kenny Stills
NO
|
G. Tate
TEN
Golden Tate
TEN
|
R. Cobb
NYJ
Randall Cobb
NYJ
|
M. Boykin
SEA
Miles Boykin
SEA
|
C. Beasley
NYG
Cole Beasley
NYG
|
Wide Receivers - Non-PPR
D. Hopkins
KC
DeAndre Hopkins
KC
|
J. Jones
PHI
Julio Jones
PHI
|
D. Adams
NYJ
Davante Adams
NYJ
|
O. Beckham Jr.
MIA
Odell Beckham Jr.
MIA
|
T. Hill
MIA
Tyreek Hill
MIA
|
M. Thomas
NO
Michael Thomas
NO
|
M. Evans
TB
Mike Evans
TB
|
B. Cooks
DAL
Brandin Cooks
DAL
|
T. Hilton
DAL
T.Y. Hilton
DAL
|
A. Brown
TB
Antonio Brown
TB
|
K. Allen
CHI
Keenan Allen
CHI
|
S. Diggs
HOU
Stefon Diggs
HOU
|
A. Thielen
CAR
Adam Thielen
CAR
|
A. Cooper
BUF
Amari Cooper
BUF
|
J. Edelman
NE
Julian Edelman
NE
|
C. Kupp
LAR
Cooper Kupp
LAR
|
C. Godwin
TB
Chris Godwin
TB
|
C. Ridley
TEN
Calvin Ridley
TEN
|
R. Woods
HOU
Robert Woods
HOU
|
T. Lockett
SEA
Tyler Lockett
SEA
|
K. Golladay
NYG
Kenny Golladay
NYG
|
T. Boyd
TEN
Tyler Boyd
TEN
|
J. Gordon
TEN
Josh Gordon
TEN
|
A. Green
ARI
A.J. Green
ARI
|
A. Robinson
DET
Allen Robinson
DET
|
A. Jeffery
PHI
Alshon Jeffery
PHI
|
M. Williams
NYJ
Mike Williams
NYJ
|
C. Samuel
BUF
Curtis Samuel
BUF
|
R. Chosen
MIA
Robbie Chosen
MIA
|
C. Kirk
JAC
Christian Kirk
JAC
|
W. Fuller
MIA
Will Fuller
MIA
|
S. Shepard
TB
Sterling Shepard
TB
|
D. Westbrook
GB
Dede Westbrook
GB
|
E. Sanders
BUF
Emmanuel Sanders
BUF
|
C. Davis
NYJ
Corey Davis
NYJ
|
D. Jackson
BAL
DeSean Jackson
BAL
|
J. Landry
NO
Jarvis Landry
NO
|
S. Watkins
BAL
Sammy Watkins
BAL
|
D. Pettis
NO
Dante Pettis
NO
|
M. Jones
DET
Marvin Jones
DET
|
D. Moncrief
HOU
Donte Moncrief
HOU
|
T. Williams
DET
Tyrell Williams
DET
|
L. Fitzgerald
ARI
Larry Fitzgerald
ARI
|
A. Miller
BAL
Anthony Miller
BAL
|
J. Brown
BUF
John Brown
BUF
|
G. Allison
ATL
Geronimo Allison
ATL
|
J. Washington
ATL
James Washington
ATL
|
M. Gallup
LV
Michael Gallup
LV
|
K. Coutee
MIA
Keke Coutee
MIA
|
C. Sutton
DEN
Courtland Sutton
DEN
|
K. Stills
NO
Kenny Stills
NO
|
J. Crowder
WAS
Jamison Crowder
WAS
|
G. Tate
TEN
Golden Tate
TEN
|
M. Boykin
SEA
Miles Boykin
SEA
|
D. Hamilton
MIA
DaeSean Hamilton
MIA
|
M. Brown
KC
Marquise Brown
KC
|
D. Funchess
DET
Devin Funchess
DET
|
So which Fantasy Football busts should you avoid in your draft? And which superstar QB isn't a trustworthy QB1 option? Visit SportsLine now to get Fantasy Football cheat sheets from the model that called Allen Robinson's disappointing season, and find out.