2019 Fantasy Football Draft Prep: Worth the cost? Expert answers on ADP

Do you trust the wisdom of the crowd? Should you?

That's the fundamental question behind any discussion of Average Draft Position's utility as a tool in the Fantasy player's belt. You have your own thoughts about how the draft should go; do you even need to know what everyone else thinks?

That's what our Fantasy analysts are going to be tackling today. So far this week, we've looked at the biggest offseason stories, plus our favorite sleepers, breakouts, and busts, and now we're judging the crowd. How much wisdom is to be found?

Here's who will be answering that question:

Jamey Eisenberg, CBS Fantasy Senior Writer
Dave Richard, CBS Fantasy Senior Writer
Heath Cummings, CBS Fantasy Senior Writer
Adam Aizer, Fantasy Football Today host
Ben Gretch, CBS Fantasy Editor
Chris Towers, CBS Fantasy Senior Editor

1) How closely do you follow ADP while drafting?

Jamey Eisenberg: While drafting? Not so much. But leading up to the draft I use it a lot. It's a great tool to get an idea where players are going in most drafts.
Dave Richard: While drafting I almost never refer to ADP. But before drafting it's part of the process of knowing where players have been going. If there are a handful of players I particularly want, I try to jump in front of what ADP data tells me by 10-15 picks.
Heath Cummings: A little? Very little? Your individual draft is not likely to follow ADP very closely and I'd rather get my guys.
Adam Aizer: I mostly ignore ADP and use rankings while drafting. It's helpful to know how the general public values certain players, so don't ignore it completely.
Ben Gretch: I typically use ADP to build a draft plan and to understand where players might go, but I try not to take guys who aren't targets of mine solely because they are great values by ADP. That type of move almost always winds up costing you a chance to pick an actual target of yours, either that round or later, because draft picks are obviously limited and everything gets pushed down your board.
Chris Towers: I think it's fashionable among industry analysts to say they don't worry about ADP at all, but I think that's probably a mistake — especially if you're not playing with a group of industry analysts. Your draft will be different, but ADP data can still tell you when you might be able to wait on one position or another, knowing a run may be coming.

2) Which player in the top 20 in ADP is too high?

Jamey: Melvin Gordon is the obvious answer. He's about to free fall because of his holdout.
Dave: Todd Gurley, which feels so weird to say because of who he's been. But everything points to his workload and production taking a dip, and there's no telling how many games his arthritic knee will cost him.
Heath: The obvious answer is Gordon (6) but I'm also a little scared of Gurley at 14.
Adam: I think all of the top-20 players are justifiable but I'll say Antonio Brown shouldn't go ahead of Mike Evans or Damien Williams.
Ben: The holdouts are obvious answers but among the guys who aren't, it's Le'Veon Bell. He's very good, yes, but he'll be in a slower-paced offense, almost certainly won't have the same share of his backfield's touches (because his share in Pittsburgh was the gold standard for workhorses), and the offense likely won't provide the type of scoring opportunities Pittsburgh's did. I don't see top five upside in New York.
Chris: Davante Adams. I'm not against taking him, but he's the WR2 right now, going inside the top 10 on average. We're talking about a guy with a single 1,000-yard season, in a brand new offensive scheme, with what has to be a better supporting cast than he had last season. Those 169 targets won't repeat.

3) Which player outside of the top 100 is too low?

Jamey: I hope Curtis Samuel's ADP stays outside of the top 100. He should be going much higher, and he's a steal the later you can get him.
Dave: I doubt I'll be the only guy to say Curtis Samuel at 112th. He's got a similar skill-set to D.J. Moore with nearly identical targets and catches in the last seven games last season. He's probably a little faster than Moore. And he's available 52 picks after Moore according to ADP.
Heath: Again, Austin Ekeler (116) and Justin Jackson (206) are way too low but I'd also point to Tyrell Williams (154) and a huge bargain.
Adam: Geronimo Allison is a steal outside the Top 100. He has a chance to be very productive as the Packers No. 2 WR, just as he was last year before getting hurt (19 catches, 289 yards, 2 TDs in the first four games of the season).
Ben: There's a long list of running backs I like there but I'll go with Marquez Valdes-Scantling. The drum beat has been steady all offseason, and there's a long track record of Rodgers' No. 2s breaking out from similar ADPs, even with a No. 1 like Adams locked in. Maybe Rodgers isn't the same guy, but his ADP suggests drafters mostly believe he is.
Chris: Tyrell Williams or Donte Moncrief. You can grab either of these guys, on average, in the 13th or 14th rounds, and both might be No. 2 options on teams with an elite WR who will draw plenty of attention away from them. We know Ben Roethlisberger can support multiple starting Fantasy options, and Derek Carr has done it before, too.

4) Who is one player whose ADP will rise most before Week 1?

Jamey: Aside from Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson, I can see Golden Tate's ADP rise now that Sterling Shepard (thumb) could miss Week 1.
Dave: Here's a surprise: Devin Singletary (160th). I have a hunch he's going to open some eyes in the preseason and push at least one of the two elder Bills running backs off the roster. He'll get picked in every league by late August.
Heath: Sooner or later people will remember Peyton Barber (112) is still the starting running back for the Buccaneers.
Adam: I think Dante Pettis (87th overall, WR33) should be closer to a top-60 pick. All we need is one or two "Dante Pettis looks great" reports and he'll skyrocket.
Ben: Josh Gordon. Sounds like he'll be reinstated in some capacity, and if/when that happens -- even if it comes with a suspension of some kind -- he'll move way up.
Chris: I'm not sure it will be entirely deserved, but N'Keal Harry has a chance to really rise up draft boards. With no Julian Edelman for the next few weeks, Harry should be the focus of reports out of Patriots' camp, and he'll likely be the top target in the preseason. He could shoot up boards.

5) Would you rather have Derrius Guice (72nd), Miles Sanders (76th), or Darrell Henderson (80th?)

Jamey: I'll take Henderson since you can get him the latest, and he's the ultimate lottery ticket this year with Todd Gurley's knee situation.
Dave: For now it's Henderson given the potential production he could have if Gurley misses time, plus I expect him to be involved every week anyway. The other backs could make a push if the depth charts around them clear out.
Heath: I think Henderson has the most upside, but Guice is more likely to be someone you can start. I'll take the upside of Henderson.
Adam: Originally I would have said Sanders, but I'm leaning towards Derrius Guice. He's getting healthy, and once the Redskins season becomes meaningless (Week 1?) why not see what they have in Guice? He could be a beast in the second half.
Ben: It can depend on roster construction a little bit, but Henderson in a vacuum. He's a little more expensive than I'd like, but Gurley has led the NFL in total touchdowns by three each of the past two seasons, and C.J. Anderson's success showed the system has plenty to do with that. The line will be a little worse, but I also love Henderson's prospect profile, so I'm still optimistic about his upside. If Gurley's healthy all year, Henderson might not give a great return on his ADP, but the reason to target Henderson is the potential he's a big hit.
Chris: It's Guice for me. He's the only one who has a good chance of being a 250-touch back right now. Henderson's appeal doesn't rest entirely on Gurley's health, but he's unlikely to justify this draft cost if Gurley plays 16 games; Sanders is in arguably the most crowded backfield in the NFL. Guice might be in a bad offense, but it's one that just produced a 1,250-yard, eight-touchdown season from Adrian Peterson.

6) Who is your favorite value right now?

Jamey: Obviously I love Samuel, but give me Damien Harris (No. 142 overall), Anthony Miller (No. 155 overall) and Justice Hill (No. 159 overall). All three could be league-winning players in 2019.
Dave: If I was promised Cam Newton at 91st overall in every draft I did, I'd be jump-into-Scrooge-McDuck's-pool-of-gold happy.
Heath: Jordan Reed is a 13th-round pick by ADP and there are maybe seven or eight tight ends I'd rather start Week 1.
Adam: It's Pettis, but if you want another answer I'll go with Kenny Golladay (48th overall, WR19). Golladay basically represents the last of a tier of wide receivers who are their team's No. 1 option. After Golladay you're looking at No. 2 or No. 3 guys like Calvin Ridley, Cooper Kupp and Chris Godwin. Tyler Lockett is also interesting at 56th overall.
Ben: I'm a full-fledged Damien Williams believer and I still try to take Darwin Thompson in every draft. He's the perfect running back to target late given his cost, the elite offense he's in, and that he profiles as a much better receiving back than Carlos Hyde.
Chris: I don't understand the logic behind letting Tyler Boyd drop to the sixth round, as he currently is. He's the 28th wide receiver off the board, coming off a season where he was a top-16 option regardless of format. A.J. Green's presence didn't really impact Boyd's production, and he's probably not going to have to deal with five games of Jeff Driskel again.