Seeing as we've only had one preseason game, it's still way too early to be overreacting to injuries. But that's not to say they don't matter at all either. Coaches want guys who are available and an extended absence can be a problem, especially for a guy learning a new offense or proving he can handle the starter's role.
Two other things we have to deal with this time of year are cuts and additions ... and what they really mean. It's easy enough to speculate on a new player's role or where a cut player's touches are going. But what the roster looks like in early August may not tell us what it's going to look like in September. That's especially true with depth charts.
We'll cover those things and more in this week's Believe It or Not.
Lamar Miller is once again a great value with D'Onta Foreman out of town.
There was always a question whether Foreman would ever return to the form he showed in 2017. Now, at least, we know he won't return to that form in Houston. The Texans surprisingly released Foreman on Sunday morning, seemingly clearing away all competition for Lamar Miller. Yes, Josh Ferguson will likely get touches and and there's some hope that Damarea Crockett or Cullen Gillaspie may have some upside, but it' pretty clear this is Lamar Miller's job and he's not being drafted like it.
Verdict: Believe it.
People love to pass on Miller in drafts, but the slide needs to stop. He's currently the No. 31 running back of the board at the end of the sixth round, according to Fantasy Pros ADP. In my projections he's the No. 24 running back in PPR and No. 19 in non-PPR. I understand if you want to move a few backs ahead of him because of upside, but he hasn't finished worse than No. 22 in any of the past five seasons. Miller is a feature back in a very good offense and he should be drafted as such.
Antonio Brown's foot injury is no big deal.
Brown saw a foot specialist on Saturday and received good news, with a day-to-day diagnosis. In fact the worst thing to come out of the whole ordeal might have been the pictures we definitely didn't need to see of Brown's feet. In all seriousness, Brown is one of the best wide receivers of all time and it's the first week of August. If he's day-to-day then we have absolutely nothing to worry about. Continue to draft him in the second round.
Verdict: Don't believe it.
No, I'm not really all that worried about Brown's health or availability for the season. But Jon Gruden's offense is notoriously complex, and this is Brown's first season with Derek Carr. I don't believe it's no big deal that Brown is missing valuable practice time, even if it's the first week of August. There isn't one reason that I don't feel great about using a second-round pick on Brown -- there's a variety. His reduced efficiency last year, his acclimation to Oakland, the quality of his quarterback play and his age. His absence makes two of those concerns just a little bit bigger.
Carlos Hyde is taking advantage of Damien Williams' absence.
Earlier this week it was glowing reports about Darwin Thompson. Now we're hearing that Hyde is looking good at practice with the first team. The one back we're not hearing about? Damien Williams, because he's still sidelined with a hamstring injury. There's also been speculation that Andy Reid is frustrated by Williams' lack of availability. This is a back with almost no history as a starting running back and a pair of backs now breathing down his back. He needs to get on the field, and fast.
Verdict: Believe it.
Yes, Williams was awesome last year. But we all agree that has far more to do with this situation than anything else, right? That's a problem for Williams right now because this system is making Hyde and Thompson look like stars as well. Williams doesn't have the pedigree or track record to sit out a majority of the preseason and walk right back into a feature role. Until he's back on the field, I can't draft him in the first two rounds, and if he misses another week I may drop him into the fourth. Hyde and Thompson are both excellent sleeper picks in the double-digit rounds.
Phillip Lindsay's opportunity is shrinking in Denver.
I wrote about Lindsay last week, as one of the most obvious regression candidates at running back this season. The best argument against that would be Lindsay earned a bigger workload in 2019. It sure doesn't seem like the Broncos agree. Royce Freeman has been the back getting most of the publicity in terms of an increase in workload, and the team signed Theo Riddick to help in the passing game. Lindsay can still be a good running back with limited touches, but it will be nearly impossible for him to take the next step.
Verdict: Believe it.
Forget taking the next step. Lindsay's going to have hard time matching last year's production without in increase in work. Every indication we're getting out of Denver suggests something close to a 50-50 split on early downs between Freeman and Lindsay. That could have been OK if Lindsay could have supplanted Devontae Booker in the passing game. With the addition of Riddick, that seems far less likely. Lindsay is no longer in my top 25 running backs in PPR, and his upside is severely limited barring an injury.
Kevin White is the No. 3 receiver in Arizona.
We knew it was going to be difficult for the rookie receivers in Arizona to make a big impact with Larry Fitzgerald, Christian Kirk and David Johnson hogging targets. But we certainly didn't expect they'd have to fight off Kevin White. Well, the Cardinals released their first depth chart, and it was White listed as a starter alongside Fitzgerald and Kirk. While we do expect this team to run a lot of four-receiver sets, I can't imagine wasting a draft pick on one of the rookies now.
Verdict: Don't believe it.
These early August depth charts can be a lot of things, but settled isn't one of them. I would be surprised if White is a starting receiver Week 1 and downright shocked if he still is by Week 8. Andy Isabella and KeeSean Johnson both have a ton of upside in a system that is expected to be fast and pass-heavy. They're both still worth late-round picks in anything deeper than a 14-round draft. Just remember you might need to be a little patient with them.
