2021 Bills Fantasy Football Preview: Trying to project Josh Allen's encore and Buffalo's sleeper and breakout

The Bills made a point of getting Josh Allen more help last offseason and he rewarded them with an MVP-caliber performance. The transformation this entire offense made from 2019 to 2020 was remarkable, and it's clear the Bills will continue to go as far as Allen will take them, especially after an offseason without any really significant changes. 

2020 Review

Record: 13 - 3 (2)
PPG: 31.3 (2)
YPG: 396.4 (2)
Pass YPG: 288.8 (3)
Rush YPG: 107.7 (20)
PAPG: 37.3 (11)
RAPG: 25.7 (17)

2020 Fantasy finishes

QB: Josh Allen QB2
RB: Devin Singletary RB31; Zack Moss RB46
WR: Stefon Diggs WR3; Cole Beasley WR26; Gabriel Davis WR56; John Brown* WR83
TE: Dawson Knox TE38
*No longer with team

Number to know: 39.7%

The Bills ran the ball on just 39.7% of their offensive plays in 2020, down from 45.7% and 46.4% in the previous two seasons. And 7% of their total rushes were scrambles by Allen. This team went from a relatively high-volume rushing game to a relatively low-volume one basically overnight as they leaned into Allen's improvements as a passer to fuel their offense. They also continue to ask Allen to make fewer downfield throws, as his average depth of target fell from 11.0 in 2018 to 8.5 yards in 2020. Adding in easier, higher-percentage throws is a good way to help your QB and to move the ball without having to rely on an inefficient running game, and it will be interesting to see how much, if at all, the Bills revert to a run-centric approach. 

2020 Offseason

Draft Picks 

1. (30) Gregory Rousseau, DE
2. (61) Carlos Basham Jr., DE
3. (93) Spencer Brown, OT
5. (161) Tommy Doyle, OT
6. (203) Marquez Stevenson, WR
6. (212) Damar Hamlin, S
6. (213) Rachad Wildgoose Jr., CB
7. (236) Jack Anderson, G

Additions

WR Emmanuel Sanders, TE Jacob Hollister, QB Mitchell Trubisky

Key Departures

WR John Brown, DT Quinton Jefferson, TE Tyler Kroft, WR/KR Andre Roberts

Available Opportunity 

10 carries, 4 RB targets, 92 WR targets, 18 TE targets 

Rankings and Projections

Chris Towers' projections

Biggest Question

What does Josh Allen do for an encore?

Allen made a nearly unprecedented jump in 2020, going from 30 combined passing touchdowns in his first two seasons to 37, turning Buffalo's offense into a pass-first, pass-second juggernaut. There's probably going to be some regression coming for this offense, but how much Allen can avoid falling back on bad habits is going to tell the story of this offense. Stefon Diggs should be a stud regardless, but how well Allen follows up his breakout will play a part in who else is worth starting.

One sleeper, one breakout and one bust

I wasn't planning on calling Beasley a sleeper, but after seeing none of my colleagues rank him inside of the top 60 at WR, I had to. Beasley isn't someone I want as a key part of my starting lineup, but he finished 27th in PPR scoring per game last season and has been a consistent target for Josh Allen, topping 100 targets in both of his seasons in Buffalo. The addition of Sanders and expected emergence of Gabriel Davis could lead to a smaller role for the diminutive veteran, but I'm still expecting Beasley to be the No. 2 option here, and that should be a pretty valuable role in this offense. Given how highly Allen ranks across the board, his WRs actually look like relatively good values. 

Davis was one of the most pleasant surprises of the 2020 rookie class, as the fourth-rounder emerged as a viable playmaker for the Bills, first as a seldom-used No. 4 option and then stepping up when John Brown dealt with injuries. He averaged 17.1 yards per catch, right in line with his 17.2 yards per catch average in college. Whether he can sustain that efficiency in a larger role remains to be seen, but if he can be the primary field-stretching option for the Bills while Stefon Diggs draws the attention of the defense in the intermediate range, that could be a very valuable role. It is worth noting, however, that Davis had just 262 receiving yards on 34 targets over his final seven games last season, so don't go pushing him up your boards too far. Where he went in our June 0.5 PPR mock draft -- 152nd overall -- is perfect. 

It's sort of tough to come up with a good bust pick for this team, because Diggs and Allen are the only players currently being drafted inside of the top 100 on NFC, and I just don't think either is all that likely to bust -- though Allen would be the pick among the two if you had to make one, given how the leap he made last season. However, I'll go with Moss here as the bust pick. If his ADP stays outside of the top 100, there's very little risk either way, but he is going about 30 picks ahead of Singletary, and I'd rather have the latter. This isn't a particularly valuable backfield for Fantasy either way -- the Bills have ranked in the bottom five in Fantasy points to running backs in each of Allen's three seasons because of the QB's red-zone dominance and how rarely they throw to their backs -- and I still have Moss and Singletary splitting work fairly evenly. Moss played 50% of the snaps in six games in 2020 and he averaged 10.7 carries and 1.3 targets per game in those six, all coming from Week 8 or later. He averaged just 10.2 Fantasy points per game in those six games despite scoring four touchdowns. This just isn't a particularly good offense for running backs, but at least Singletary catches passes. You don't want either as a starter, but as long as Singletary is cheaper, Moss will be a bad value.