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Going through the projections process led me to two surprising revelations. One, Brock Bowers is a legitimate option in Round 1. Two, Trey McBride shouldn't be that far behind.
As a rookie Bowers averaged 15.5 Fantasy points per game and led the position with 112 catches and 1,194 yards. There is no guarantee he will improve in Year 2, but even that production was more than three points per game better than TE7 and 5.5 FPPG better than TE12. That is an enormous advantage in itself. That he did this with Gardner Minshew, Aidan O'Connell, and Desmond Ridder at quarterback is impressive enough. Add in the fact that he was a rookie and scored all these points with only five touchdowns shows an upside that few tight ends have ever possessed.
McBride may be one of those few. McBride caught one fewer pass and produced 46 fewer yards in one fewer game than Bowers. But he only caught two touchdown passes, making him one of the most obvious touchdown regression candidates in the league.
I project Bowers for 31 more Fantasy points than McBride next year and McBride for 35 more than everyone else. Their projected advantage over a replacement-cost tight end for next year is five to eight points per game. The difference between Bowers and TE12 in my projections is the same as the difference between De'Von Achane and RB27, or Nico Collins and WR46.
There are certainly things that could happen this offseason that might change this perspective. The Raiders could bring in a number one wide receiver without adding an upgrade at QB. The Cardinals could add target competition for McBride. But their upside isn't fully reflected in this projection either.
A couple of guys who could approach McBride in the projections are Travis Kelce if he returns and George Kittle if the 49ers trade Deebo Samuel. Kittle was slightly better than Bowers and McBride last year and could be TE1 again if Samuel is gone and Brandon Aiyuk isn't 100% after his torn ACL.
Here are my way-too-early tight end projections:
