Losing Chris Godwin and Mike Evans in the same game was among the worst possible scenarios for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Combined this season, the two had scored 6 of Baker Mayfield's 18 passing touchdowns and caught 77 of Mayfield's 165 completions for 839 of Mayfield's 1,859 passing yards.
Godwin's season is over. At least Evans figures to come back -- NFL Media says the star receiver will be likely out until Week 12.
But who will step up to replace them in an effort to keep the Bucs offense explosive?
Here are the basics of how Godwin and Evans were used this season. No one should be surprised by any of these numbers.
| Route % | Slot/Wide | Route depth | ADOT | Tgt/route% | |
| Chris Godwin | 89% | 62%/38% | 6.93 | 5.74 | 25.6% |
| Mike Evans | 71% | 24%/76% | 8.6 | 10.80 | 23.2% |
Perhaps the biggest number of all is the end-zone targets Evans had in his first six games: eight. No one else on the Bucs had more than two.
Whoever takes the place of Godwin and Evans won't have to run very far downfield, especially in the case of Godwin. But the burden of trying to be as impactful is probably something not being preached by Tampa's coaches. No one on the roster can do what these two can and did.
Fantasy managers should have similar expectations. Whoever becomes the new favorite of Baker Mayfield probably won't be even 80% of what Godwin and Evans was.
The receivers
Trey Palmer was the understudy to Mike Evans in Week 7. In the three snaps Evans missed in the first quarter, Palmer was in to take his place. Then in the second quarter Palmer replaced Evans exclusively once Evans walked off the field with his right hamstring injury. That continued into the second half when Palmer had a perfect 100% route rate.
Jalen McMillan played ahead of Palmer and essentially split the No. 3 receiver duties with veteran Sterling Shepard. McMillan opened the game playing every snap on the opening drive except the last one when Evans scored -- that was when Shepard came in. McMillan may have out-snapped Shepard over the course of the game, but the two rarely saw the field at the same time until Godwin got hurt and Shepard moved exclusively into the slot for five of the Bucs last six plays.
There's your expectation: Palmer and McMillan should line up wide, Shepard predominantly in the slot.
Here's how they've been used so far, including Week 7:
| Route % | Slot/Wide | Route depth | ADOT | Tgt/route% | |
| Trey Palmer | 26% | 23%/73% | 11.4 | 9.56 | 12.9% |
| Jalen McMillan | 45% | 23%/75% | 10.7 | 13.73 | 12.3% |
| Sterling Shepard | 44% | 33%/66% | 9.7 | 13.75 | 10.0% |
You'll notice that Shepard already has a leg up on Palmer and McMillan in percentage of snaps from the slot. That's just scratching the surface, though -- Shepard was once a near full-time slot receiver on the Giants. He faded from that role, however, only to resurface now with the Bucs just so he could be reunited with Mayfield, his college pal. His film isn't half-bad either. Shepard has quick-twitch agility to help him get open in his routes, though his straight-line speed wanes. He'll have to see good target volume in order to be a capable PPR option, and that just isn't promised.
You already know Palmer was Evans' replacement on the field, but not in the box score and seemingly not in Mayfield's eyes. Palmer's speed was fine but he lacked quickness to separate from equally fast defenders. Palmer also struggled with physical coverage, and there also appeared to be a timing issue on one of Mayfield's targets to Palmer, something that can be worked on in time. It's hard to expect Palmer to get better in a hurry, though it would help if Mayfield would at least look in his direction when he found open space against zone coverage. Maybe that'll happen now that Evans is sidelined.
McMillan figures to see the most opportunities in the wake of injuries to Godwin and Evans, but I can't say he's a cinch for huge Fantasy production. No doubt, he saw eight targets in Week 7 including seven without Evans on the field, but he caught only three total for 15 yards. Four targets came in the final six minutes of the game when the Bucs were desperate to score anything and the Ravens played casual zone defense. Mayfield also tried McMillan on a bunch of deep throws and the two couldn't connect. As for his film, he's got the best combination of speed and agility, which is probably why he was playing ahead of Shepard and Palmer to begin with.
It'll be a mess between all three of these guys, and when Evans comes back (hopefully), he'll relegate all of them to Fantasy waiver wires.
I'll guess that between these receivers one will have at least 12 PPR points each week and the other two will be lucky to get to 10. Predicting who will do what week in and week out will be a chore. I wouldn't hitch my wagon to any of these wideouts.
The touch, the feel of Otton
Going into Week 7, Bucs tight end Cade Otton was third on the team in targets per game (5.2), catches (19), yards (163, a distant third) and target share (16.5%). He was also third in red-zone targets, one behind Godwin and two behind Evans.
With the star receivers out, Otton is in line to see a lot more work. And that's exactly what happened on Monday against the Ravens. Once Evans was sidelined, Otton caught 7 of 9 targets for 12.4 yards per catch. A pair of explosive catches helped Otton accrue 100 on the night, a career-high by 30 yards over his previous mark.
No one should expect Otton to be this good for the rest of the season. But he's the one most likely to gobble up the short-area targets Godwin left behind, and he's also a cinch to pick up at least a few more end-zone targets with Evans sidelined. Baker Mayfield also has had a career-long tendency on leaning on his tight end (which goes back to his days in college with Mark Andrews).
It makes a ton of sense for Otton to be more involved, which is why he is the safest bet to produce Fantasy points on a regular basis, not any of the Bucs receivers. The fact he's a tight end is an added bonus. I'd add him off waivers ASAP.
