The Buffalo Bills selected Utah tight end Dalton Kincaid with the 25th pick of the 2023 NFL Draft. Here's what you need to know about how his Fantasy stock in both season-long and Dynasty formats is affected by his landing spot.
Kincaid's Fantasy fit with Bills
Buffalo continues to look for ways to take some pressure off Stefon Diggs in the passing game. Kincaid is a step in that direction. He's a mismatch chess piece Josh Allen can lean on in a couple of different ways. For one, Kincaid is terrific at challenging down the seam. His athleticism gives him an edge against smaller defenders to leap for high throws. That can play big in the red zone, too. Kincaid is also a YAC threat against zone coverage, which the Bills should continue to see a lot of. It remains to be seen if Kincaid is the only serious addition to the Bills passing game this offseason, but if that's the case he does have a chance to land around 90 targets and potentially serve as a low-end No. 1 Fantasy TE as soon as this coming season.
Dynasty outlook
Kincaid will be a popular Dynasty pick for two reasons: he is much more of a receiving tight end than a blocking tight end, and he'll catch passes from Allen for the foreseeable future. Landing in Buffalo is pretty great -- so long as Diggs is the only true stud receiver, Kincaid should compete for targets from the jump. He's not without his issues, though: Kincaid will be 24 years old in October, he's sort of lean, he's coming back from a nasty back injury and of the five years he's regularly participated in organized football, just two were spent at a major college program (and he was a backup for the slight majority of those two years). Despite those issues, expect someone in every Dynasty rookie draft to go after Kincaid before the end of Round 1, not only in one-QB formats where he might go as high as sixth overall, but also in Superflex where he'll get attention starting at 10th overall.
Dalton Kincaid: What to know
Dalton Kincaid almost never played football. He was much more into basketball, even winning an AAU National Championship as a teenager and also playing on his high school team in Summerlin, Nevada (a southwest suburb of Las Vegas). But Kincaid credits his friends with convincing him to give football a try during his senior year at Faith Lutheran High School. He proved to be a relative natural thanks to his basketball-style traits, leading the Crusaders with 37 catches for 745 yards and eight touchdowns in nine games in 2017. It was enough for him to get a chance to play at the non-scholarship program at University of San Diego even though he wasn't rated by any of the prep recruiting sites.
In two seasons (24 games) with the Toreros, Kincaid caught 68 passes for 1,209 yards and 19 touchdowns against Pioneer League competition. Kincaid had brighter goals in mind so he transferred to Utah and got instant eligibility to play in 2020. He barely played for the Utes during the Covid-shortened 2020 season but was far more involved in the two years after.
Age as of Week 1: 23 | Height: 6-foot-3 5/8 | Weight: 246 | Hand size: 10 1/4 | 40-time: n/a
Comparable body-type to: Gerald Everett
We're breaking down everything you need to know about Kincaid from a Fantasy manager perspective, including best fits, Dynasty outlook, measurables, scouting report, key stats and an NFL comparison.
Strengths
- Tall frame with long arms.
- Lined up in-line (54.7% of 2022 snaps), in the slot (37.7%), and out wide (7.5%).
- Quickness was Kincaid's specialty. Quick out of his breaks, quick when turning back to his quarterback, quick changing directions, quick to head upfield after making a catch. His footwork and agility seemed to help him buy space more than anything else he did.
- Would also lean on physicality at times to help him push away on breaking routes like slants and digs.
- Mixed in really good head-fakes, especially on the occasional out-and-up, to trick defenders.
- A dream down the seam: Made plenty of big plays attacking downfield even with coverage tight on him.
- Ran a pretty good variety of routes but seemed to focus on crossers, options, comebacks and hitches, especially against zone coverage (the first USC game is an example).
- Had the arm length and body control to extend high to rebound tall passes from shorter defenders.
- Knew enough to make himself available for a target when a play broke down, usually by working back toward the quarterback.
- Good-hands man. Terrific at snaring passes away from his body with his big mitts. Just two drops over 93 targets in 2022 with zero drops in 2021 (45 targets).
- Contact didn't bother him when going for a catch or running after a catch. Kincaid ran through contact for extra yards, albeit not as often as you would like.
Concerns
- Has been playing organized football since 2017, including one year of high school, two years at an FCS school and effectively two years in the PAC-12.
- Began 2022 as the Utes' No. 2 tight end behind Brant Kuithe, though the team regularly utilized both tight ends in the offense.
- Kincaid will turn 24 years old in October. By comparison, Cole Kmet is seven months older and Kyle Pitts is nearly one year younger.
- A leaner tight end with thin-ish legs to match. Weighed in at 246 pounds at the NFL Combine but looked like he played at a lighter weight last year.
- Primarily stayed close to the line of scrimmage and seemed to do more than a little work as a safety-valve type of player for Utah. Per TRU Media, of the 366 routes Kincaid ran in 2022, 161 went no further than 9 yards downfield and only TWO went 16-plus yards downfield. Not catches. Not targets. Routes.
- Though he had functional speed, and occasionally ate up space quickly when running a straight line, it wasn't a trait he used to regularly get open. He will not shake NFL-level coverage with his speed often.
- Has a lot of work to do as a blocker. While Kincaid did a good job following blocking assignments and seeking out defenders, he was not consistent at effectively blocking (struggled against Oregon, was much better in first game vs. USC). Not only did his man frequently slip off the block and make a play on the ball, but Kincaid would sometimes get manhandled.
- Didn't see a lot of great effort to bring in off-target throws unless they were over his head.
- Dealt with two injuries in 2022: shoulder (October, missed one game) and a small fracture in his lower back (November, missed two non-consecutive games as well as the Senior Bowl, the Combine or Utah's Pro Day). He reportedly did not have surgery for either one.
Stats breakdown
| G | Tar | Rec | ReYds | Avg | TD | |
| 2022 | 12 | 93 | 70 | 890 | 12.7 | 8 |
| 2022 v Top-25 | 4 | 44 | 35 | 440 | 12.6 | 1 |
| Career at Utah | 26 | 141 | 107 | 1414 | 13.2 | 16 |
Advanced stats to know
- In four games in 2022 with Brant Kuithe: 21 targets, 16 catches, 240 yards, four touchdowns
- In eight games in 2022 without Brant Kuithe: 72 targets, 54 catches, 750 yards, four touchdowns
- Kincaid was either first or second among 53 FBS-level TEs with at least 40 targets in targets, catches (first with 70), yards, yards per game (first with 74.2), yards per route run, and touchdowns. He was third-best in the nation in tackles avoided (16).
- 50% contested catch rate in 2022 according to PFF.
- Also had a 50% catch rate on 10 targets inside the 10-yard line with each of his five catches going for a touchdown.
- Had a 48% catch rate on 25 targets that traveled 11 or more Air Yards.
NFL comparison
Kincaid is a quicker-than-fast tight end who will still draw plus matchups given the size differential he'll have over most linebackers and defensive backs. And it's likely he'll be used far more as a receiver than a blocker, opening the door for him to pick up a decent amount of targets from game to game. While he may not reach the gamebreaking levels Jordan Reed hit before injuries sidelined his promising career, he can be utilized similarly.