Diontae Johnson was traded from the Carolina Panthers to the Baltimore Ravens on Tuesday, and the Fantasy Football Today team tackled the Fantasy Football fallout of this trade on an emergency podcast. Dave Richard, Jamey Eisenberg, and Adam Aizer tackled why the Ravens did the deal from a football standpoint and what it might mean for your Fantasy lineups. You can find the full conversation here:
Dave suggested some recent mental errors (dropped passes) by Rashod Bateman may have sparked this decision by the Ravens, but we know for sure Johnson has been one of the better target earners in the NFL throughout his career. Johnson has been able to command targets via excellent marks in separation rate throughout his career. And he's done so despite dealing with terrible quarterback play at times from both the Steelers and Panthers. Johnson will now play with the best quarterback play of his career, and we could see that unlock upside in Fantasy both in the red zone and as a vertical passing threat.
This trade is most likely to hurt the Fantasy value of Zay Flowers, who had been coming in strong as a Fantasy option in Year 2. Flowers had 195 air yards in Week 8 -- by far the highest in his career. It was only the fourth time he has topped 100 air yards in a game. While the Ravens have found a way to utilize Flowers' skill set down the field, his target share is a near-lock to fall with Johnson in the mix.
Jamey believes Johnson will immediately come in and run a lot of similar routes to Flowers and could earn more targets down the road. He is fine with continuing to start Flowers for now but can see him falling back into the WR3/Flex range as the season rolls forward.
Dave also provided some context on how Johnson has fared in games with fewer targets. In 19 career games with 6-7 targets, he has racked up 10+ PPR points in just nine of them and 12+ PPR points in just six of them. Targets have fueled Johnson's production from a Fantasy standpoint.
The only wide receiver to ever average more than eight targets per game in Jackson's career was Marquise Brown in 2021.
Jamey also believes this is a good thing for tight end Mark Andrews because the Ravens will lean more heavily on 11 personnel (three receivers, one tight end), which will remove Isaiah Likely from the field and provide more opportunities for Andrews. Over the last two weeks, Andrews has returned to a role similar to what we saw in his prime from a route participation standpoint. Andrews' route participation was 78% in Week 8, which would be in line with what we've seen from him in the past. Andrew is up to the fourth-most PPR points per route run among all tight ends in 2024 after another touchdown in Week 8. He is an every-week starter at this point.
Adam cautioned against getting too excited about Johnson, Flowers, and Andrews moving forward, "The Ravens are 24th in pass attempts per game, third-lowest in pass rate, and Jackson has four games with 24 or fewer attempts."
Jamey thinks it's a matter of whether the Ravens outscore you and how they'll do it.
Both Jamey and Richard are taking Flowers over Johnson in their WR rankings for the rest of the season. "Johnson now has two offenses he has to learn in the same year, three quarterbacks to build a rapport within the same year, there's a lot of moving parts. But there should be a lot of easy wins for Jackson throwing to Johnson -- he should see one-on-one coverage often."
The Johnson trade is most likely to raise the ceiling of the Ravens' offense. It should hurt both Johnson and Flowers as Fantasy options, but it will also provide Jackson the opportunity to finish as the QB1 overall. The move also helps Derrick Henry, as he should be afforded more scoring opportunities.
You can also watch the breakdown over on the Fantasy Football Today YouTube here.