I want to start this update by giving Jacob Gibbs some credit. He spent the summer telling us that Nico Collins is elite, and after a month of the 2024 season, that's a fact that anyone would have a hard time disputing. Collins is the number two wide receiver in Fantasy Football through four weeks, and he's done it in two ways. One, his volume has spiked from last year, two, he's somehow maintained last year's efficiency.
In 2023, Collins averaged an incredible 16.2 yards per catch and a 73.4 catch rate for 11.9 yards per target. Those are not numbers that go together, and they should not be sustainable. Tyreek Hill has long been the gold standard for sustainable yards per target, and his career mark coming into this year was 9.7. Collins did that last year by combining a 10.9 aDOT with 6.9 yards after catch per reception. Again, these are insane numbers that should not go together. But it was just 109 targets, so it was easy to expect some regression in efficiency.
That regression has been almost non-existent. Collins has averaged 11.4 yards per target this year, and his yards per catch has actually gone up to 16.3. The big difference is that he's gone from 7.3 targets per game in 2023 to 10.75. Remember, this leap happened after they added Stefon Diggs to the team! You simply cannot give Collins enough accolades. I've vaulted him up to WR8 in my Dynasty wide receiver rankings.
More Week 5 content:
- Dave Richard's Week 5 Trade Chart
- Heath Cummings' Full Week 5 Projections
- Week 5 Position Previews: QB | RB | WR | TE
- Dave Richard's Week 5 Lineup Decisions
- Jamey Eisenberg's Week 5 Start 'Em & Sit 'Em
This time last year, Collins ranked WR35 for me in Dynasty. While that sounds dumb, Dynasty League Football ADP had him at WR48 in September of last year, jumping to WR28 by the end of October. So we all look dumb, except Jacob.
Speaking of Jacob, you should really subscribe to the Fantasy Football Today Newsletter.
The guy he's higher on than almost everyone else right now? Brian Thomas. Like Collins, Thomas is pairing a ridiculously high catch rate and yards per catch as well as a 12.8 aDOT and 4.8 yards after the catch. Sound familiar? It's too early to put Thomas on Collins' level, but he has jumped over Rome Odunze as WR3 in this class for me. He's also jumped into the top 20 in my Dynasty wide receiver and Week 5 rankings. Jacob wrote earlier this week about how this should be his coming out party against the Colts; you may want to buy high before that happens.
I had Matt Waldman on Fantasy Football Today Dynasty to check in on Thomas, the rest of the rookies, and how they look through the first month of the season. You can listen to that here:
As a reminder, you can find all of my Dynasty Fantasy Football position rankings over on our Dynasty Landing Page. Those articles are not updated regularly, but the spreadsheets within them are updated every week in the regular season. You can also find my Dynasty Trade Charts on SportsLine. Each week, I update both the one-QB and Superflex trade charts.
Other Dynasty risers: Jayden Daniels, Brian Robinson Jr., Kareem Hunt, Josh Downs, Wan'Dale Robinson, Tutu Atwell, Tre Tucker, Dontayvion Wicks, Erick All, Tucker Kraft.
Other Dynasty fallers: Aaron Rodgers, Carson Steele, Christian Watson, Calvin Ridley, Keenan Allen, DeAndre Hopkins, Kyle Pitts, and Luke Musgrave.