It's obvious that Daniel Jones was great for Fantasy last year because of the 708 rush yards and seven rushing touchdowns he had. Those numbers made up 33.5% of his 2022 Fantasy point total in six-point passing TD leagues; by comparison, Josh Allen's was 23.2% and Jalen Hurts' was 35.5%.
Asking him to maintain that level of production on the ground might be too much to ask, especially since he's improved his completion rate in each of his past four years and his yards per attempt and passing touchdown rate in each of his past three.
But even with a downturn in rushing, Jones' preseason performance against the Panthers suggests he's capable of making up for it with his arm thanks to the Giants' offseason additions.
Jones made easy and fast decisions with the football on his lone drive, recognizing pre-snap opportunities and taking advantage of them. His first three targets went to new tight end Darren Waller, who was left wide open twice over three plays and had a not-so-subtle push off on the other. If not for a drop by Waller after taking a hit, Jones would have had a perfect night on nine attempts. Waller certainly looked the part of a stud tight end who is in consideration as the fourth-best option at the position on Draft Day.
It should be mentioned that not every decision Jones made was the safe and obvious choice -- his 20-yard completion to Isaiah Hodgins came off a RPO look where Jones kept his eyes downfield while moving to his right and throwing a dart on the move to Hodgins in stride, who picked up about 10 yards after the catch. Hodgins, who played 7 of 10 snaps with Jones (including penalties), is a late-round sleeper in PPR.
Once the Giants were in goal-to-go mode, playcaller Mike Kafka rang up a jet-motion flare for Parris Campbell for five yards and then Jones found an open Daniel Bellinger for six points thanks to Waller running interference for him in the end zone.
The terrific play designs, the consistent targets to Waller, the accuracy both in the pocket and on the move and even a scramble mixed in when he felt some pressure all suggests Jones can take a step forward this season. The offensive line's showing wasn't bad either, potentially previewing a positive for the Giants. And none of this happened with Saquon Barkley on the field.
Tack on rookie speedster Jalin Hyatt, who got a touch on a pop pass from Jones but really did damage later with the second team offense when he blew past coverage for a 33-yard touchdown, and Jones' receivers have much more potential to extend his numbers than they did in 2022. Hyatt is a deep sleeper.
Last season was the first time Jones had more than 5.6 rush attempts per game, and the first time he ran for more than two touchdowns. Something tells me the Giants would prefer to have him run less and throw more, though they won't limit him if scrambling is a good idea (like it was in this game). The difference this season is that Jones' completion rate should stay high (67.2% last year) while his attempts per game reach a four-year high (33 per game would do the trick. His receiving corps can do the rest and boost Jones' yards per attempt average to a career-high (7.0 at minimum) with higher touchdown production to boot.
If Jones throws for 3,250 yards and 25 touchdowns, it's a career year. On 561 attempts (exactly 33 per week), he would need to average 5.8 yards per attempt and a TD rate of 4.5% to get there. The former is a slam-dunk to happen; the latter will be tougher to meet but it's possible given the receiving corps at his fingertips. A very challenging schedule is also a reason to pour cold water on Jones' outlook.
But those conservative passing numbers project to 16.5 Fantasy points per week. That doesn't include turnovers, but it doesn't include any rushing stats either. And remember, 3,250 yards is the bare minimum here -- given his receivers, close to 4,000 yards is in play for Jones' projection.
This is enough to put Jones in the same exact tier as Kirk Cousins and Geno Smith -- Fantasy quarterbacks who should have a safe floor of 20 points per week, but have upside to rock for 23-plus over the course of the season with some massive spike weeks mixed in. If he had an easier schedule, Jones would be ahead of Smith and perhaps Cousins too. His upside is certainly higher than both.
Most importantly, Jones is yet another passer to target in drafts if you find yourself needing a starter after pick No. 100. I'm ready to draft him ahead of Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson and Jared Goff. And I wouldn't fault anyone for taking him over Smith and Cousins.
