Brandon Aiyuk is out for the season. Deebo Samuel has pneumonia without a timetable to return. Jauan Jennings has a hip injury that cost him Week 7; 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan said on Sunday he "hopes" he's back for Week 8 but sounded unsure when his name was brought up again on Monday. Stud tight end George Kittle has a foot sprain and veteran backup receiver Chris Conley has an ankle sprain, both of whom are considered day-to-day.
When asked about his young wideout trio of rookie Ricky Pearsall, Ronnie Bell and Jacob Cowing, Shanahan said "guys are gonna get a lot more reps going forward."
Jennings will be a primary receiver for the 49ers, that much we know.
But after a review of how these receivers were utilized last week, first before the Aiyuk injury and then after, there's not a ton of hope that any 49ers youngster can evolve into a potential Fantasy Football asset.
When Deebo and Aiyuk played
It wasn't for very many plays in Week 7, but the third receiver on the field for the Niners with Samuel and Aiyuk was Pearsall. He was effectively in the "Jauan Jennings role." That role, based on Jennings' usage with Samuel and Aiyuk, involves the receiver mixing in and out of the slot and keeping his routes relatively short.
(Note that Jennings' role was seemingly expanded when he busted up the Rams in Week 3 because Samuel didn't play in the game.)
When Deebo was out but Aiyuk played
Conley was Samuel's immediate replacement on the field and even played in two-WR sets with Aiyuk through the first quarter. Pearsall did take some of that two-WR formation work in the second quarter, but the Niners didn't run enough of it to consider it impactful. Again, Pearsall seemed to stay in the Jennings role even with Samuel out.
| Route % | Slot/Wide | Route depth | ADOT | Tgt/route% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAUAN JENNINGS (w/ Aiyuk & Deebo) | 62% | 50%/50% | 7.55 | 10.79 | 21.6% |
| RICKY PEARSALL (first half Wk7) | 75% | 46%/54% | 7.22 | 12.00 | 16.7% |
"He was going to get eased in a little today," Shanahan said of Pearsall on Sunday. "That changed a little bit with Deebo going out, then it changed a bunch with Aiyuk going out. So he had to do more than we expected today and I was proud of him for handling it."
When Deebo and Aiyuk were out
Aiyuk hurt his knee with 0:48 to play in the first half. His immediate replacement was Jacob Cowing, who also saw the first target after the injury on a tunnel screen to push the Niners inside the Chiefs' 10-yard line. Two plays later the Niners took it into the half down 14-6.
"We had to mix around a lot of stuff at halftime," Shanahan said Monday. "Those guys were in spots that they didn't prepare for. For the most part, they didn't make mistakes."
Cowing didn't play a ton in the second half, but Pearsall did. It was the rookie and Conley in two-receiver sets to start the third quarter, a sign that Pearsall's role may have evolved quickly.
And when the 49ers went to three receiver sets, the first guy up was Ronnie Bell, who didn't play at all in the first half but logged more routes than Conley, Cowing and even Kittle.
With the roles changed, Pearsall seemed to play more in a role similar to Samuel's than Jennings'.
| Route % | Slot/Wide | Route depth | ADOT | Tgt/route% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEEBO SAMUEL (Wks 1-6) | 84.0% | 32%/57% | 6.61 | 9.75 | 21.2% |
| RICKY PEARSALL (2nd half Wk7) | 89.5% | 43%/57% | 8.94 | 6.33 | 17.6% |
That put Conley in a perimeter receiver role like Aiyuk, which wasn't an ideal fit at all because he's nowhere near as explosive as Aiyuk, but likely necessary because of his experience and physicality.
Bell slid into a Jennings-type role. Cowing, who ran just six routes in the second half, was used like Aiyuk, especially toward the end of the game when he caught a deep ball from Purdy.
A quick film review
Last week, Pearsall exploded off the line of scrimmage when he wasn't pressed, but anytime he had to deal with a cornerback contacting him or even playing near him, he couldn't easily separate. This was something Pearsall was good at in college and again during Senior Bowl week, so maybe it was the level-up in competition and a lack of experience that slowed him down. If so, then in time he'll be exciting.
Until then, I'd be shocked if the 49ers didn't try using Bell and Cowing in some form or fashion.
Bell, who actually did work as the team's third receiver in Week 3, played plenty again in the second half last week. Bell has good burst and acceleration off the snap but might not have the same kind of long speed as Cowing. Such traits might have been why he had a designed screen from the Chiefs 11-yard line last week with Cowing and Pearsall running picks for him. Bell nearly scored. The downside is that in Week 3 and in the second half of Week 7, Bell accumulated a 13.9% target per route run rate, and just five targets.
Though he didn't play much, there was a clear difference between Cowing's speed and route-running versus Pearsall's (and Bell's, and Conley's). Maybe his physicality isn't very good, and maybe his route tree isn't diverse, but if the Niners want to recapture Aiyuk's speed element, Cowing is their best bet to do so.
So now what?!
There are a lot of moving parts here. Based on what the Niners have done this year, and what the film showed us this week (and in the case of Pearsall, last season), it's probably best to break down the Niners WRs based on each possible scenario for Week 8 when they host the Cowboys.
Deebo and Jennings return Week 8: Expect both to play -- Samuel in his usual role as a No. 2 Fantasy WR, Jennings more of a No. 3 option. Pearsall would probably be the third receiver and thus someone to stash, not start.
Deebo returns Week 8, Jennings is out: Without a reliable slot receiver, Samuel would probably play the most there as well as a movable chess piece across the formation. His target volume would be really good, potentially pushing him into a top-15 kind of Fantasy status. Pearsall might play a lot in this circumstance, but it would take a desperate situation to feel good about him as a possible option. Bell, Conley and Cowing wouldn't be recommended Fantasy options.
Jennings returns Week 8, Deebo is out: Jennings would be an intriguing borderline No. 2/No. 3 Fantasy receiver based on playing time. Pearsall's outlook might be best in this situation too because he'd play a ton and work all over the formation. Maybe he'd register as a low-end No. 3 Fantasy wideout. Bell, Conley and Cowing wouldn't be recommended Fantasy options.
Deebo and Jennings are out in Week 8: First of all, yikes. And in this instance, Pearsall would be a No. 3 Fantasy receiver without any of his teammates being close to being lineup choices. I would suspect Conley would play a lot more in this scenario, but he shouldn't be trusted for meaningful Fantasy numbers.
Note that in all circumstances: Jennings is a factor that shouldn't go away, and Pearsall figures to have a meaningful role in the Niners offense, even if he's sorta learning on the fly. Both are worth adding to rosters -- Jennings as a likely No. 3 option, Pearsall as a stash WR. If I had to overpay for one, it's Jennings even knowing that he could miss Week 8.
And a note for Dynasty-leaguers: Bell and Cowing are worth stashing in Dynasty just in case one of them takes off. I like Cowing's speed but dislike his lack of playing time. You might prefer to stash Bell first, then pivot to Cowing if Bell doesn't do well with any opportunities. It would have to be a really expendable player to add either of these guys -- in my personal leagues I will have to weigh Andrei Iosivas, Kayshon Boutte and Will Levis as players to drop for either wideout, and I am not sure it's worth the risk unless there was a long-term absence to Samuel or Jennings.