Fantasy Football 2026: Way-too-early tight end projections

The middle of February may seem too early for Fantasy Football projections. 'Seem' may not be a strong enough word in that first sentence. Free agency is right around the corner, but the NFL Draft won't happen for two more months. It is way too early. But that doesn't mean it isn't helpful to take a snapshot before things get crazy.

The most interesting thing about the projections below is obvious right from the top. Sam LaPorta at TE1 shocked even me, and I have done a little massaging already to move him closer to Brock Bowers and Trey McBride. All three tight ends will have new offensive coordinators and/or head coaches in 2026, and one in particular has a large role in the direction these projections are moving: Drew Petzing.

Petzing was McBride's OC in 2025 and will be LaPorta's OC in 2026. Why does he matter so much? In his three seasons with the Cardinals, Arizona averaged 162 tight end targets per season, peaking with 218 last year. Petzing comes from the Kevin Stefanski tree, and Stefanski's Browns have averaged 167 tight end targets per season. This is arguably the most tight end friendly offensive system in the NFL. It is a system that has benefitted McBride, and now it is LaPorta's turn.

While the big question comes down to how much losing Petzing hurts McBride, and how much gaining Petzing hurts LaPorta, we shouldn't gloss over the uncertainty surrounding Bowers. For my money, he still has the highest upside of this trio, but he will have both a new head coach in Klint Kubiak and a new QB in (most likely) Fernando Mendoza. I could spin these changes positively or negatively without much effort, but I do at the very least expect the offensive environment to be better in Las Vegas than it was in 2025. Hopefully, Bowers is healthier as well.

That being said, it seems unlikely that McBride or Bowers are in offenses that score as many points as LaPorta's Lions. Over the past three seasons, LaPorta has scored on 7.9% of his targets, compared to McBride's 3.8% rate. For his career, Bowers has scored on 5.0% of his targets. If those trends hold, LaPorta can be more productive on fewer targets for Fantasy Football purposes.

The beauty of all this is that I can still rank Bowers (because of upside) and McBride (because of floor) higher than LaPorta while telling you that these projections suggest LaPorta will be the best value on Draft Day. This is assuming that he is 100% recovered from his back injury by the time we get to August, of course.

These projections also don't reflect just how deep the position looks right now. Kyle Pitts and Isaiah Likely could enter the top 12 with a good landing spot, and Travis Kelce could do the same if he chooses to play one more year of football. The prize landing spot for Pitts and Likely would be in Atlanta with Stefanski, but it's possible he brings in veteran David Njoku, who already knows his system.

Here are my way-too-early tight end projections: