Fantasy Football Believe It or Not: Cut your Jets, start Rashaad Penny and Amon-Ra St. Brown

Before I came to CBS,  I wrote for Footballguys for several years and one of the many benefits of that time was that I got to work with some of the true titans of the industry, namely Joe Bryant and David Dodds. They taught me a lot and I often remember random things I learned there throughout the season. Today, I'm reminded of Dodds' article "Eliminate the Suck". 

The premise was quite simple; don't draft terrible players, or players on terrible offenses, or players with a terrible playoff schedule. There was more nuance to it than that, but I think anyone reading these words who started a Jets of Lions running back this week has to be nodding their head in approval. And there are probably some people who started Jeff Wilson who feel the same. 

While it was a terrible week for some of the backup running backs and almost all Lions, Rashaad Penny and Amon-Ra St. Brown bucked those trends. We'll talk about whether they can keep it up, what you should do with those backup running backs you started this week, and more in this week's Believe It or Not.

Elijah Mitchell is the only 49ers RB worth rostering

The Case: This used to be a job that was as plug-and-play as they come. Matt Breida? Tevin Coleman? Raheem Mostert? Jeff Wilson? It didn't matter the name, you started the 49ers starting running back. Week 14 reinforced that is no longer the case. 

Jeff Wilson turned 13 carries into 5.6 Fantasy points, the third time this season he's turned double-digit touches into single-digit Fantasy points. Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk took a combined nine carries from him while Jamycal Hasty and Kyle Juszczyk saw five targets to Wilson's zero. 

At this point it's pretty clear that Mitchell is the only back who is going to see a featured role, and he's the only back you should be rostering.

The Verdict: Believe it

Yes, I know the 49ers face the Falcons in Week 15. I understand if you don't want to drop Wilson because you're afraid he'll be used against you. But that might actually work in your favor. 

Wilson's role, splitting carries while doing nothing in the passing game, is just not that desirable. Maybe he'll get into the end zone like Chuba Hubbard did, but that's about the only chance at Fantasy relevance. If you're in the Fantasy playoffs, you should have better options, especially in PPR. 

Amon-Ra St. Brown is a starting WR in PPR

The Case: St. Brown saw 12 targets for the second consecutive game and he's now scored 40.1 PPR Fantasy points over his last two games. Much like we saw from Elijah Moore a little more than a month ago, St. Brown is breaking out and will be a starting wide receiver unless he gets hurt like Moore did. Start him with confidence.

The Verdict: Don't believe it

I don't believe D'Andre Swift, Jamaal Williams, and T.J. Hockenson are going to miss the rest of the season, so I have a hard time believing St. Brown is going to be more than a flex. 

In Week 14 the Lions did a good job of putting St. Brown (and Kalif Raymond) in the backfield to run routes because they were without their best pass-catching running backs. That's not a recipe we can count on moving forward if even one of the Lions running backs return.

I would expect both Hockenson and Williams back in Week 15, and Swift could be coming back at some point as well. That makes St. Brown a flex in full PPR and someone best left on the waiver wire in non-PPR.

I will say that if I needed a PPR flex this week, I would choose St. Brown over Wilson or any of the Jets active running backs. Speaking of which...

Unless Michael Carter comes back, don't start any Jets

The Case: This one is too easy, isn't it? I think it needs to be addressed anyway because we pretty much all had Jamison Crowder ranked as a starting wide receiver and either Ty Johnson or Austin Walter ranked as a high-end flex. Crowder caught three passes, Johnson had 57 total yards, and Walter apparently got sick before the game and was unable to play.

Whatever the reasons were for their Week 14 performances, you aren't starting any of them in Week 15 against the Dolphins.

The Verdict: Believe it

This is a team that had some very talented offensive players. Those players are not playing right now. They've scored more than 20 points once in their last five games, and that was against the Houston Texans. They are going to use a committee approach at running back for at least as long as Michael Carter is out and RBBC on a bad team with below average running backs is not the way to win in the Fantasy playoffs. 

Free up those roster spots and cut your Jets.

Rashaad Penny is a must-start RB as long as he stays healthy

The Case: Not all the backup running backs were terrible in Week 14. Penny posted his third career 100-yard game and his first since Week 12 of the 2019 season. The Seahawks running back averaged better than eight yards per rush attempt and scored two touchdowns. And could have had a third. 

Penny is a must-start after that performance, but first, he's a must-add. He's available in three quarters of CBS Fantasy leagues as of Monday morning.

The Verdict: Believe it.

Well, definitely in non-PPR. Probably in PPR as well. Seattle has been searching for a running game like this all season and Penny did well with the opportunity. Alex Collins and Adrian Peterson should not be a problem for him as long as he stays healthy. The only hesitation I have in full PPR is that Travis Homer or DeeJay Dallas could still be a problem where catches count. Penny has only caught two passes all year. 

That being said, we should expect 15-plus carries for Penny moving forward and in the current running back landscape that's a must-start in all formats.

Tyler Huntley is a Week 15 streamer if Lamar Jackson is out

The Case: When the Ravens lose Jackson to an ankle injury I assumed Week 14 was over for them and any chance of winning the division may be as well. But Huntley, for the second time this season, acquitted himself very nicely. He's now completed 68% of his passes this season and has only thrown one interception on 85 pass attempts this year. He's also run for at least 40 yards in each of his last two games. 

Hopefully, Jackson is fine, but if not, Huntley is a streamer for Week 15.

The Verdict: Don't believe it

Mostly, this is about the matchup. The Packers defense is outstanding, even if they weren't perfect on Sunday night against the Bears. You do not want to trust your Fantasy season to a backup quarterback facing that defense even if he's going to run for 40 yards. 

And I know the pushback is that Taysom Hill has been miserable as a passer but great for Fantasy. That would not be the case if Hill were rushing for 40 yards a game. He has 174 yards and two touchdowns on the ground over the past two weeks. And yes, I'd rather start Hill vs Tampa this week.