We've finally reached August, and that means Fantasy Football draft preparation is kicking into full gear. We won't go another Thursday without football from this point on until the end of Thursday Night Football, so we've got that going for us, which is nice. We'll be tackling different position groups in the coming weeks, and this week we are focusing on the wide receiver position, arguably the one group Fantasy managers spend the most time debating.
Today, we're tapping the Fantasy Football Today team to gauge the wide receivers they think will bust and are best off avoiding in all drafts. Without further ado, let's dive into it.
Wide receiver busts
Jamey Eisenberg's picks
It's hard to bet against Evans. He comes into 2021 with seven seasons in a row with at least 1,000 receiving yards, and he plays in a high-powered offense with a great coach in Bruce Arians and quarterback in Tom Brady. But Evans could see a decline in his Fantasy production if his touchdowns regress this year, and he scored a career-high 13 times in 2020. Keep in mind he's never had consecutive seasons with double digits in touchdowns. He also had a career-low 109 targets last season, and that might not change with a crowded receiving corps, which features Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski, as well as O.J. Howard (Achilles) coming back and the addition of Giovani Bernard. Evans should still be good this season, but he might not be great, so keep that in mind if you consider drafting him in Round 4.
Julio Jones, Titans
Jones is still going to be good after being traded from Atlanta to Tennessee. But I'm not sure he's still going to be great, especially since he's already been dealing with an injury in training camp. It's hard to expect the Titans to support two high-end Fantasy receivers with A.J. Brown and Jones unless the offense dramatically changes, and Tennessee was No. 30 in pass attempts last season with 485. By comparison, Atlanta was No. 4 in pass attempts with 628. Jones also has averaged just shy of 10 targets per game for his career. The No. 2 receiver for the Titans last year, Corey Davis, averaged 6.6 targets per game. Now, you don't add Jones without the expectation to use him more than Davis. And we'll see if new offensive coordinator Todd Downing plans to throw the ball more than Arthur Smith did. You also have to be a little concerned about Jones, 32, being limited to just nine games last season due to injury. I like Jones as a No. 2 Fantasy receiver, but keep your expectations in check now that he's with the Titans this year.
Golladay is already hurt, as he's dealing with a hamstring injury in training camp. And it feels like he could be headed for a long season in his first year with the Giants. While the Giants are counting on him to be a star after signing him to a four-year, $72 million deal, including $40 million in guarantees, Fantasy managers are counting on Daniel Jones to help make Golladay successful. And that's risky. There also are a lot of mouths to feed in this offense with the addition of first-round rookie Kadarius Toney joining Sterling Shepard, Darius Slayton, Evan Engram and Saquon Barkley. The Giants also will be a run-first team now that Barkley (knee) is back at 100 percent. Golladay will have plenty of positive moments, but I'm concerned about him remaining a high-end Fantasy option now that he's with the Giants.
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Dave Richard's picks
Michael Thomas, Saints
If you draft Thomas, you're drafting a headache. What's the status of his ankle? Who knows. When will he come back? September, maybe. October, maybe. How soon will he be in game shape after he returns? A week or two, perhaps. Who's throwing him the football? Not Drew Brees. And how'd he do last year anyway? In seven games, he topped 11 PPR points three times. I'll happily admit he has league-winning upside, which might be all you need to take someone. But he also has gut-punching downside, first when he languishes on Fantasy benches and keeps folks from finding good free agents off waivers, then again when he doesn't see as many accurate throws from Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill. People are drafting Thomas in Rounds 5, 6 and 7. I wouldn't spend a pick on him until Round 8 at the earliest, and that's only if I had the bench space/Injured Reserve spot to hold him until he did come back. Without that kind of space, I would wait until Round 10, which means I'm just not taking Thomas.
Mike Evans, Buccaneers
Last season, Evans scored once every 5.4 catches and scored 32% of his total PPR points on touchdowns. I can't imagine that being even remotely close to repeatable, especially since Evans' previous career-high for touchdown rate was every 5.7 catches back in 2014. And speaking of career variance, Evans' 2020 saw him land three-year lows in per game (6.8), yards per catch (14.4), average depth of target (14.1), average route depth (9.97), yards per route run (1.74) and yards per target (9.2). He truly was saved by his touchdown grabs, the likes of which may be in jeopardy considering the rich, deep group of pass-catchers at Tom Brady's disposal. Without a glut of touchdowns, Evans is a big risk -- last year he had five games with over 100 yards and 15 with under 80 yards. There should be safer, less touchdown-dependent receivers you can find when he comes off the board.
Odell Beckham, Browns
Look, it's been four years since Beckham tantalized Fantasy managers with his jaw-dropping plays and high-volume workload. He's especially been a problem since going to Cleveland, posting seven scores, six games with over five receptions, two 100-yard games and two surgeries. He actually posted career-lows in catch rate (53.5%), catches per game (3.8) and yards per game (53.2) in six games last season before hurting his knee in his seventh. While it looks like he's fully recovered, he's still on a team that will run the ball frequently (52% pass plays in 2020 ranked fourth-fewest). Don't put Beckham on your roster thinking he'll revert to his 2016 form.
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Heath Cummings' picks
Amari Cooper, Cowboys
Truth be told, I don't really like the current redraft ADP of Lamb or Cooper, but Cooper is the one unavailable at the start of camp and Lamb is the one giving us highlights every other practice. As long as Lamb, Gallup, Ezekiel Elliott, and the tight ends remain involved, it's unlikely Cooper finishes the year as a top-14 receiver, and until he's going full speed at practice (and for that matter, until Dak Prescott is), there's an additional injury risk. If you have to reach on one of the Cowboys receivers, reach on Lamb.
Odell Beckham, Browns
When you see the name Odell Beckham 32nd among wide receivers, it looks kind of weird. It probably looks even more weird for me to call him a bust at that cost. But Beckham hasn't been the same player in Cleveland and he's coming off yet another major injury. The Browns' low volume pass offense is also very multiple, spreading the ball all over the field. That's resulted in a 25% reduction in targets per game for Beckham over the past two seasons. Combine that with a similar drop in efficiency, and it's just hard to see much upside for an aging receiver who clearly has a low floor. He's not in my top 40 receivers.
Adam Thielen, Vikings
Adam Thielen was surpassed last year by Justin Jefferson, and it's hard to imagine the soon-to-be 31-year-old making up ground in 2021. His loss of targets in 2020 was masked by a 13% touchdown rate. Coming into 2020 he'd scored on 5.3% of his targets. Regression could make Thielen a No. 4 wide receiver in full PPR, and he's being drafted inside the top 20.
Chris Towers' picks
CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys
I get the excitement over Lamb, and he's a player I'll probably have to make sure I draft somewhere for a league that counts, just in case he does hit his potential this season. But I think his chances of hitting his high-upside outcome are being way overstated by his current price, which has risen to WR11 in NFC drafts since the start of April. Lamb is an excellent prospect in a very good offense, but he didn't come anywhere close to justifying this price as a rookie. Many will point to his best stretch, when he was on pace for 93-1,386-6 in five games before Dak Prescott's injury, as proof of his upside, but it's worth remembering he had just 16.7% target share with Prescott. He'll need to dramatically improve on that to come anywhere close to being worth this price, and I just don't have any reason to think he'll match Amari Cooper in targets, let alone exceed him. While Lamb is the new, shiny toy in Dallas, Cooper was an even more highly touted prospect coming out of the draft than Lamb and has already been the kind of player everyone is hoping Lamb can become. Lamb should take a step forward this season, but I can't consistently buy him as a top-12 WR.
Adam Thielen, Vikings
I've got Thielen ranked 26th compared to an ADP of 22nd, but I'll be honest, there really hasn't been a point this offseason where I've thought about drafting him. Someone always likes him a lot more than I do. I think the most-likely outcome is he has another solid season, in the 900-plus yard range with a decent amount of touchdowns, though certainly not 14 like last year. However, Thielen is clearly in statistical decline as he enters his age-31 season, and he had just six games with more than 60 yards in 2020. The touchdowns covered up for that, and maybe the Vikings' run-first offense and the presence of Justin Jefferson mean Thielen will continue to feast in the red zone. But he's going to need to do that to be worth starting as much more than a fringe option, and he's at the age where he's probably nearly as likely to fall off completely as to maintain his production. You're better off chasing someone whose upside isn't totally tied to an outlier touchdown rate.
D.J. Chark, Jaguars
I don't want to write Chark off as a one-year wonder, because he's still young and talented. But let's consider the evidence: Chark finished 20th in points per game in 2019 and then followed that up with a WR43 finish in 2020. The QB situation in Jacksonville was obviously a disaster in 2020, so if you want to give him a mulligan, that makes sense. But Chark also had nearly half of his receiving yards and five of his eight touchdowns in 2019 in the first five games before averaging 52.3 yards per game on 6.5 yards per target over the final 10. In 2020, he averaged 54.3 yards per game. His last 23 games have been decidedly pedestrian, in other words. And now the Jaguars are likely to throw the ball a lot less under Urban Meyer than they did last season (616 pass attempts) and Chark has more competition for targets with Laviska Shenault looking to make a Year 2 leap and veteran Marvin Jones joining the roster. Trevor Lawrence could be good enough to support three Fantasy-viable wide receivers, but I think the more likely outcome is this is just a frustrating group where all settle in the boom-or-bust WR4 range. It doesn't help that Chark is dealing with a broken finger that required surgery, though he is expected back in time for Week 1
So which sleepers, breakouts and busts should you target and fade? And which QB shocks the NFL with a top-five performance? Visit SportsLine now to get Fantasy cheat sheets for every single position, all from the model that called Josh Allen's huge season, and find out.
