I'm a bit bummed because I thought that I was going to get to pick apart Dan Schneier's rankings today. If you aren't familiar with Dan, he edits the newsletter and does fantastic work for CBS. Here's his Twitter account.
Dan is the man behind the scenes and our trusty editor, and he doesn't have updated rankings just yet, but he promised to come up with rankings this weekend. So it's coming.
Today, I'll conduct a more civilized and professional examination of my rankings relative to my esteemed colleagues who do fantastic work for CBS -- you know them, you love em -- I'm talking about Jamey Eisenberg, Dave Richard, and Heath Cummings, specifically.
Two notes before we jump in:
1. I am updating my research on rush scheme data. You might remember a newsletter post on the topic if you've been reading since June (thank you!). I haven't finished digging into preseason data yet, but I did start -- you can read the update on Twitter.
If you don't have a Twitter account, congratulations. I guess that you are better off without one. Still, I'd recommend that you make one for the purpose of following my account. My Twitter account basically serves as a stream of NFL-related consciousness for me during the season. I'm constantly on there. If you want to know what I'm thinking or potentially talk ball, you're gonna need a Twitter account.
Hi, I'm Jacob. I know I don't look it, but I am over 30 years old, I am a professional, and I know ball. I tweet 24/7 during football season. I do not sleep. I only watch ball. Are you a ball-knower? Let's talk.
2. I'll be updating my NFL Journal 2024 with notes each week, starting in the preseason. Feel free to read it. Friday's FFT Newsletter will cover unheralded rookies (we hit on Puka Nacua, Tank Dell, and Jordan Reed in this space last season) as well as an 'In the Lab' installment. Please fill out this form to let me know what you want to put under the microscope!
I am lower than the FFT crew on these players:
Jonathan Taylor
Jamey rank -- 12
Dave rank -- 11
Heath rank -- 10
My rank -- 21
You're going to notice a few themes as we get rolling here. Sorry, I won't tell you what your experience will be, I have no idea. I just tweeted this cut-up of Austin Ekeler's preseason touches without anticipating the possible kerfuffling that might ensue. There's no telling what interpretation might be found outside of our own experience. Many searched for profound meaning within the three Austin Ekeler preseason touches and then directed their disappointment at the tweet when they found none. Life is often confusing, get in line. Austin Ekeler is no longer a Charger, did you know that?
I noticed a few themes as I got rolling with these ranking comparisons.
1. The FFT crew ranks running backs much higher than I generally do.
2. The FFT crew ranks wide receivers lower than I tend to.
3. The FFT crew is more cautious with expectations for rookies than I seem to be.
It is with all due immense respect that I conduct this rankings examination. Jamey, Dave, and Heath are monoliths that have stood the test of time, enduring all of the ridiculous clamor that inevitably ensues in the pursuit of attempting to make sense of the pure chaos that is Fantasy football. While we all love it, Fantasy football can be cruel, unforgiving, and thankless. If you drafted Jonathan Taylor in 2022, you know this.
What have you done for me lately is the name of the game here, and still, these three mensches remain entrenched among the most-trusted to help navigate the treacherous Fantasy landscape even with careers that span decades. Truly an awesome feat that transcends any individual disagreements that I may have as we attempt to project what may happen in 2024. I cannot get behind drafting Taylor ahead of this group of wide receivers:
We'll hit on Collins in more detail later. I recognize that I am much higher on him and Waddle than consensus. Depending on where you are drafting, you may be able to get those two in Rounds 3 or 4, so maybe it makes more sense to draft a RB in Round 2. That's fair. Be sensitive to who you are drafting against and what platform you are drafting on. A casual home league on CBS is the place to draft a RB ahead of these receivers (not Puka). That's how I would draft in that situation, even though I strongly prefer the median projection and top range of outcomes for the receivers over the running back options after the top three backs are off the board.
My problem with the JT ranking is that he's not even my top RB after the top three are gone. I prefer Kyren Williams, Jahmyr Gibbs, and De'Von Achane. Williams offers more touchdown upside and a bit more receiving upside than Taylor. Vegas lookahead lines have the Rams implied for more points than the Colts, and Williams has no hulking QB as a threat to vulture goal line touchdowns. The Dolphins and Lions are implied for way more points than the Colts. Gibbs and Achane face more backfield competition for touchdowns, but that's baked into their projection. And still, they project an almost identical median point total to JT. What if their backfield teammate gets hurt? Suddenly, those two would project significantly better than Taylor. That contingent upside doesn't exist for Taylor, he's already projected for an optimal role.
The real problem is a lack of receiving upside. Gibbs obviously brings massive receiving upside, he's one of the best receiving RB prospects of the past decade. Don't sleep on Achane as a receiving weapon, either! He had 60 receptions in his final two seasons at Texas A&M.
Saquon Barkley
Jamey rank -- 11
Dave rank -- 12
Heath rank -- 19
My rank -- 42
Speaking of receptions, Saquon Barkley is no longer the receiving back that you think he is (yes, I see his name at the top of the CFB leaderboard that I just provided about Gibbs and Achane. That was seven years ago.)
You're going to notice that Heath and I disagree a lot in today's newsletter!
The following images are screenshots that I took of the Philadelphia Eagles team preview that I published titled, "The Jalen Hurts Show." You can read it in article form if you missed it this summer. I previewed every team, by the way, and Dan worked his butt off to get each one on the site, so head over to SportsLine to catch up if you want a deeper dive into each team's 2024 outlook. And please give Dan a follow and thank him for his hard work!
Not all touches are created equal. I have Barkley projected for 257 rush attempts. Only Christian McCaffrey, Jonathan Taylor, Breece Hall, and Bijan Robinson project for more. It just doesn't matter! He's projected for the 12th-most PPR points. I have Isiah Pacheco projected for more points and targets per game than Barkley.
Jalen Hurts is a ball hog, more than any player in any offense in the NFL.
The Philly RB position is not a good role for Fantasy purposes. The Eagles are not expected to be an elite offense. Philly has the 11th-highest implied point total for 2024, according to Vegas lookahead lines. No Barkley for me, this year. Not ever. Not even if there's a fire.
Oh, let me guess, you still are gonna draft Saquon Barkley? You think he's so much better than the previous Eagles backs, so everything I said is null. Check this out! Oh, let me guess, you think my stats don't matter and I don't know ball. The reason his stats are bad is because his offense sucked and he was getting hit behind the line of scrimmage, right? Well, I've got a stat to address that speculation as well. Oh let me guess, you find me and my stats unbearable and you still think you're right. You better believe that I have a tweet for that too!
Maybe he's just not as good as you think he is.
Rachaad White
Jamey rank -- 27
Dave rank -- 23
Heath rank -- 20
My rank -- 47
I might be wrong on this one. If Rachaad White fills a role similar to the one that he did last year, he could be one of the best picks in Fantasy. I expect Tampa's offensive line play to be much better, and I'm excited about new offensive coordinator Liam Coen's potential impact on the run game.
I also think that Bucky Irving might be an obviously better-rushing option than White. We probably don't want a member of this backfield if it is split. The Bucs have the 22nd-ranked Vegas implied point total for 2024.
James Cook
Jamey rank -- 25
Dave rank -- 27
Heath rank -- 13
My rank -- 48
The Bills have signaled a desire to find a complement to James Cook. Particularly, they've seemed interested in finding an effective short-yardage back. Leonard Fournette and Damien Harris and Latavius Murray proved to not be it. Ray Davis is him. This is the back that the Bills have been looking for, and Buffalo used a Round 4 pick to secure his skill set. Even though he is going to be 25 years old as a rookie, the Bills drafted Davis ahead of Braelon Allen. Allen is a 235-pound monster and is the youngest back in the class. Buffalo drafted Davis ahead of Audric Estime. He weighs 230 pounds and was statistically the best pure rusher from this class.
Why would the Bills draft a 25-year-old RB ahead of those two? He's going to play, right? He might play a lot! Davis can contribute on passing downs, in short-yardage situations, and he's shown flashes of explosive play creation that might warrant a starting job at some point in his career.
This offense is going to run the ball a ton. I'm not sure how much of it will be accounted for by Cook, though.
Davis isn't the only threat to backfield snaps, either. Buffalo offensive coordinator Joe Brady used Samuel in the backfield a ton the last time that we saw him (Christian McCaffrey missed most of that season, so Brady was desperate for answers. I'm not projecting Curtis Samuel for 200+ rushing yards in 2024).
Unless Cook scores a bunch of long touchdowns, he's going to have a really difficult time producing the type of top-end outcome that would make me regret passing on him at his ADP. I'd rather have a beer, I mean, receiver.
George Pickens
Jamey rank -- 45
Dave rank -- 40
Heath rank -- 40
My rank -- 70
Sorry, Heath! If Brandon Aiyuk is traded to Pittsburgh, it is over. If not, I'm fine missing out on an Arthur Smith+Russell Wilson team-up. It could be cool. I've got lots of exciting players that I can draft in the top 50. I'm good. Best of luck to you who take the plunge. If Pickens is good, it will probably be pretty entertaining. He could have a huge year!
Joe Mixon
Jamey rank -- 41
Dave rank -- 43
Heath rank -- 53
My rank -- 71
If you go to Twitter and search "@Jagibbs_23 Joe Mixon" and you will find a whole myriad of reasons why I am out.
Just like this:
There are so many reasons.
Chris Godwin
Jamey rank -- 56
Dave rank -- 60
Heath rank -- 56
My rank -- 63
It was actually very hard to find any WR that I had ranked lower than the FFT consensus. I don't have a strong stance on Godwin. People seem to be expecting a strong year from the slot. I don't know that a move to the slot necessarily impacts him in any positive way.
More slot routes and fewer downfield opportunities feels likely to lower the Fantasy ceiling for Godwin. On top of that, rookie Jalen McMillan has been a recipient of steady praise all offseason and has looked the part in preseason. I've watched every preseason route, he looks smooth and is open often. I expect that he'll present more target competition than previous WR3 options (not including Antonio Brown) that have played in this offense.
Terry McLaurin
Jamey rank -- 58
Dave rank -- 56
Heath rank -- 63
My rank -- 72
The horizontal raid offense is back. Cool guy Kliff Kingsbury gets another chance at designing an offense, and his WR1 is Terry McLaurin. Are we excited? Better yet, he has a rookie QB whose propensity for scrambling and taking sacks resulted in me projecting the Commanders for just the 20th-most receptions even though I am expecting this to be the fastest-paced offense in the NFL. Scrambles and sacks do not produce targets. Wide receivers need targets to score.
Maybe the new offense might unlock McLaurin's catch-and-run ability. I'm not going to be the one who benefits if so. There are so many players in this range who I prefer.
Zamir White
Jamey rank -- 63
Dave rank -- 57
Heath rank -- 61
My rank -- 96
Zamir White checks so many boxes as a potential trap. His preseason usage has been extremely weird, too. Antonio Pierce is a quirky guy, maybe he just does things a little bit differently than most. I'm not overreacting to the preseason usage. I just don't see it for White as a Fantasy producer.
Even in an ideal scenario, White is an early-downs only RB who doesn't offer target upside and plays in an offense that Vegas has implied for the 27th-highest point total. Someone else can draft him.
I am higher than the FFT crew on these players:
Deebo Samuel
Jamey rank -- 20
Dave rank -- 26
Heath rank -- 41
My rank -- 11
If Brandon Aiyuk is traded, Deebo Samuel projects as my WR3 behind only CeeDee Lamb and Tyreek Hill. If Aiyuk is not traded, he projects as my WR14, behind Drake London and ahead of Chris Olave and Malik Nabers. The production for Samuel when Aiyuk has been off of the field is absurd.
Nico Collins
Jamey rank -- 23
Dave rank -- 29
Heath rank -- 39
My rank -- 13
If you've been reading the newsletter or following my work, you surely know about Nico Collins. I put you on game last offseason. He's one of the best wide receivers in the NFL. Top-10, easily. Maybe top-five. I'm crazy, right?
Putting Collins in this offense with C.J. Stroud and Bobby Slowik is a cheat code. I want him on my Fantasy team. Maybe his targets will drop a bit with Stefon Diggs on the team. Probably. He could score more touchdowns. He could simply play way more snaps. He was hurt on and off in 2023. Collins ranked 54th at WR in routes run in 2023. He ranked 12th in total PPR points.
Nico Collins is my favorite player to draft. It feels so good every time that I click on his name. This offense is going to be so fun to watch as long as we don't get a bunch of Joe Mixon runs. Please don't do it to us, Bobby. Please, Bobby!
De'Von Achane
Jamey rank -- 28
Dave rank -- 34
Heath rank -- 46
My rank -- 19
If you ain't first, you're last.
Trey McBride
Jamey rank -- 47
Dave rank -- 46
Heath rank -- 27
My rank -- 26
I want De'Von Achane because several data points suggest that he is a historical outlier. I want De'Von Achane because I believe in his coach. Both reasons apply to Trey McBride, to a lesser extent. He's my TE1 for Fantasy in 2024, and I really really really like the profiles for Sam LaPorta and Mark Andrews. And, of course, Travis Kelce will probably score a ton of points. Dalton Kincaid could put up a massive Year 2, I see it too.
McBride is the first tight end that I would take. He led all tight ends in targets and first downs per route run in his first taste of real NFL action. Only George Kittle (the best historical yard per route run producer at the TE position) averaged more yards per route run than McBride in 2023. This is what we saw from him as a collegiate pass-catcher, too.
Shoutout Kyle Pitts, of course.
McBride now has Marvin Harrison Jr. to scare the pants off of opposing defensive coordinators. MHJ was double-teamed at a higher rate than any WR that Matt Harmon has ever evaluated at the collegiate level. He's a problem. He'll be stretching defenses to the breaking point, opening up space for McBride to run over would-be tacklers in one-on-one situations over the middle of the field. The dude weighs 260 pounds. You cannot hip-drop tackle, good luck bringing him down.
Jonathon Brooks
Jamey rank -- 84
Dave rank -- 79
Heath rank -- 74
My rank -- 59
Upside. I want this upside. The rookie could be producing like a top-five PPR RB during the Fantasy playoffs. I really believe he is a special talent and has a skill set that is perfect for Fantasy. I also am cautiously optimistic in Bryce Young (reasoning here) and Carolina's offense (reasoning).
I believe that if you are intentional and patient, you can bridge the gap until Brooks arrives.
Xavier Worthy
Jamey rank -- 99
Dave rank -- 109
Heath rank -- 86
My rank -- 64
He just moves differently. The ease with which he has gotten behind defenses in preseason is scary. If you wanna learn about him as a player, I wrote about Worthy earlier this offseason. I want this upside.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Jamey rank -- 98
Dave rank -- 108
Heath rank -- 94
My rank -- 65
I'm pretty in on the JSN bounce-back. I did not realize how much more in I would be than the FFT crew. I'm gonna have to find a time soon to chop it up with them because this ranking shocked me. Of course, his 2021 season at Ohio State was nutso. And there were plenty of 2023 signals that Smith-Njigba is good, even though a good portion of that data was accumulated while making a recovery from an injury that prevented him from receiving valuable reps leading up to his rookie campaign. I watched every route that he ran last year (I have no life). He looked good to me! I want to place some bets on him, at the very least. If you rank him around 100th overall, you probably are going to end up with little or no exposure. I think that's a mistake. He could rebound in a big way in Year 2. I'm super excited for Seattle's offense under Ryan Grubb. Things could look entirely different under the new regime.
Brian Thomas Jr.
Jamey rank -- 96
Dave rank -- 92
Heath rank -- 85
My rank -- 67
Give me BTJ all day late in drafts. Like Worthy, he just moves different. You can watch all of his routes here.
Rome Odunze
Jamey rank -- 97
Dave rank -- 92
Heath rank -- 93
My rank -- 68
He's just so good. He feels inevitable. Is a 32-year-old Keenan Allen really going to keep this level of a talent off of the field? I'm also much higher on Caleb Williams. He has an FFT consensus rank of 113, but I have Williams at 86th overall.
Jayden Daniels
Jamey rank -- 87
Dave rank -- 98
Heath rank -- 105
My rank -- 77
He's a Fantasy cheat code. I want this upside.
Kimani Vidal
Jamey rank -- 200
Dave rank -- Outside of the top 200
Heath rank -- 166
My rank -- 128
For what it's worth, I'm also a bit higher on J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards than the FFT crew. I want to get me a piece of this backfield. There are a few ambiguous situations that I try to leave every draft with a piece of -- the Chargers backfield, Green Bay's pass-catchers, and Kansas City's pass-catchers -- I don't know who is going to produce in these situations, but I feel pretty confident that someone is going to prove to be a Fantasy value.
In the case of L.A.'s backfield, why not take a shot on the cheapest and youngest option? Check this thread out for some Chargers offensive line hype and to watch all of Vidal's preseason touches. For what it's worth, I liked the Round 6 rookie's collegiate profile. He was efficient as a rusher even while handling a massive workload. He was great at avoiding tackles and contributed on passing downs. He could be a thing at the NFL level! We've seen more random running backs than this succeed.
