Last week I was the high guy on Aaron Rodgers, ranking him as a top-10 QB. He, and the Jets offense, completely face-planted. This week Rodgers came out as QB5 in the first run of my quarterback projections. It's gut-check time, but I really hope the projections are right.
Rodgers has now played four games with Davante Adams. Three of those were road games against the Steelers, Patriots, and Cardinals. His lone home game came against the Houston Texans. The Steelers are the second-best unit against QBs this season, the Cardinals haven't allowed a QB to score 20 Fantasy points since Week 6, and the Texans just picked off Jared Goff five times. The Colts have given up the ninth-most Fantasy points to QBs this year, though they do have four picks in their last two games.
Rodgers' high projection comes more from the fact that the Jets have an implied total of 23.75 points in Week 11, and Rodgers' passing touchdowns have accounted for 54% of their total points this season. They only have five rushing touchdowns and 11 field goals all season. My expectation is two passing touchdowns for Rodgers and three or more is not out of the equation. Try to ignore what you just saw in Arizona and start Rodgers for one more week. Don't worry, he's on bye next week so I won't suggest him again.
38 -- Caleb Williams has been sacked a league-high 38 times. Some of that is on the offensive line, and some of it is that Williams holds the ball too long.
16 -- Justin Herbert has 16 rush attempts in his last three games, including nine last week. He only had 20 attempts in his first six games.
6 -- Russell Wilson has six passing touchdowns in three games. Kenny Pickett led the Steelers with six passing touchdowns last year.
Nix has been a legitimate top-12 Fantasy QB for the past six weeks and now he's at home against a Falcons defense that has allowed 21.6 FPPG to opposing QBs, and four straight-21-point performances. Nix ix also the best stash if you need one because he faces the Raiders in Week 12.
The Ravens have the best run defense in football and they've been well below averaged against the pass. That should mean Wilson's first game in Pittsburgh with more than 30 pass attempts. He's been a top-six QB with low volume, so we could see a massive performance in Week 11.
According to my projections, Rodgers will be both underpriced and underrostered against the Colts this wee. He earned that with his performance last week, but you have to have a short memory in GPPs. Shoot the moon with a Rodgers-Hall-Wilson-Adams stack.
QB Preview
Heath's projections
My full set of Week 11 Fantasy football projections for every position are now available on SportsLine. You'll find them here. Find out which of my favorite plays are projected to score higher than consensus rankings and which don't live up to their draft hype, at least in Week 11. Projected stats for all starting running backs are available, so be sure to check out the full set of projections at SportsLine.
