Week 14 Rankings: Standard | PPR
Our trio of experts -- Jamey Eisenberg, Dave Richard, and Heath Cummings -- publish their first rankings of the week every Tuesday, and Chris Towers is here to break them down for the week ahead.
1. Who is the typical must-start QB who could ruin my season single-handedly?
- Jamey: Tom Brady
- Dave: Russell Wilson
- Heath: Marcus Mariota
I covered Brady's struggles without Rob Gronkowski already, but he hasn't been the same guy over the past three games. And now he has to go against a stout Ravens defense that has allowed the seventh-fewest Fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. It never feels good to bet against Brady, but it's not the worst idea in the world this week -- or next week against the Broncos.
Wilson bounced back nicely in Week 13, passing for 277 yards and a score after an abysmal showing against the Buccaneers the previous week. However, this is now two subpar Fantasy performances in a row for Wilson heading into the Fantasy playoffs, a bad omen.
On the other hand, the Packers have been one of the worst defenses in the league against quarterbacks this year. Assuming the weather holds up, I'm going to have an awfully hard time deciding to sit Wilson.
Mariota is going against the Broncos this week. Any questions?
2. Who is the QB typically outside your top 12 who will move me on to the next round?
- Jamey: Jameis Winston
- Dave: Matthew Stafford
- Heath: Andy Dalton
The Saints' defense isn't quite the dumpster fire it was last season, which is why ranking 19th in Fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks counts as something of a victory. After allowing an NFL record 45 passing touchdowns last season, the Saints have surrendered just 19 through 12 games, so their record is probably safe.
However, they still allow the second-most passing yards, with a below-average pass rush and only seven interceptions on the season, so it's not like there is much reason to avoid this Saints defense. It might not be quite the slam dunk it looked like a year ago -- when Winston had just two passing touchdowns in two games against the Saints -- but it's Winston who still looks like a safe bet this week.
Stafford continues to enjoy what might be his best season as a professional, as he has really fit in well in Jim Bob Cooter's high-efficiency offense. However, while efficiency is a good look for Stafford, it hasn't made for great Fantasy results, as he has just one game with 20 Fantasy points in his last five, against the Saints in the Superdome.
The Bears have a reputation as a good matchup for Fantasy, but they actually allow the 10th-fewest Fantasy points to opposing passers this season. Stafford is a fine play, but hardly one to run out and grab this week at all costs.
You could do a lot worse than just betting against the Browns at every possible chance you get, which is the primary reason Dalton is here. He has actually played well enough in A.J. Green's absence, but only one of his two games since Green went down was enough to make him Fantasy relevant, as he had 25 Fantasy points against the Eagles last week.
Dalton is making the most of a bad situation, and he should be able to keep rolling in Week 14 against the second-worst defense in the league against opposing quarterbacks.
3. Who is the typical must-start RB who could ruin my season single-handedly?
- Jamey: Lamar Miller
- Dave: Jeremy Hill
- Heath: Jay Ajayi
We'll talk about Jeremy Hill in a moment...
Miller continues to trudge on, putting together a season that is at once disappointing and perfectly useful for Fantasy purposes. He struggled in Week 13 before leaving with an injury, and that rib issue could be enough to make him a risk in Week 14. Not enough of a risk that you are likely to sit him, of course -- how many running backs can leave with an injury and still get 15 touches? -- but Miller certainly looks like a risk, running in a miserable Texans' offense.
Look past the paltry eight Fantasy points, and there's actually quite a bit to like about Ajayi's Week 13 performance. Despite facing off against a tough Ravens defense, he still averaged 5.1 yards per carry while hauling in a season-high six passes. He finished off one of the toughest matchups around with 87 yards from scrimmage, a solid total in a game where his offense struggled to move the ball much at all.
This is actually a promising outcome, though not promising enough to get past the fact that Ajayi has to face the Cardinals in Week 14. This is a brutal stretch for one of 2016's breakout stars, as he had to go against the No. 1 defense against running backs last week, followed by the No. 2 squad this week.
4. Who is the RB typically outside your top 12 who will move me on to the next round?
- Jamey: Jeremy Hill
- Dave: Jeremy Hill
- Heath: Jeremy Hill
So, we don't think the Browns are any good, is the takeaway from this. Hill rushed for 168 yards on just nine carries against the Browns the last time he saw them, with a big 74-yard touchdown run the exclamation mark on a neat and efficient day. The Browns allow the second-most Fantasy points to opposing running backs, who are also averaging 126 yards per game with 15 touchdowns in 12 games. This is as good an opportunity as any for Hill to get going.
But it is worth noting Dave's answer to question three. Hill is going to be started pretty much across the board in Week 13, and it's hard to blame anyone for being excited about this matchup for him. Hill is going to get plenty of work, as he has at least 15 touches in each of his last five games, since that 168-yard performance against the Browns. However, he has rushed for just 2.8 yards per carry in that span, totaling just 238 yards on his 86 attempts over five games since.
Hill has every opportunity to go off for a big game this week, which makes him a tough player to sit. On the other hand, he has had every opportunity to succeed over the last two seasons, and the results have been largely lackluster. Hill really could go either way this week, and your Fantasy team is going to follow, for good or bad.
5. Who is the typical must-start WR who could ruin my season singlehandedly?
- Jamey: Demaryius Thomas
- Dave: Brandon Marshall
- Heath: Brandon Marshall
In terms of talent alone, it's hard to find two better receivers than Marshall and Thomas, who have also been among the biggest busts in the league this season. I thought Thomas might at least be able to replicate last year's production, when he took a step back from the high of 2014 but still managed to be a terrific Fantasy option in spite of the struggles of Peyton Manning and Brock Osweiler. However, his targets per game mark has dropped from 11 last year to 8.6 this year, and he hasn't done enough to make up for the loss of that volume. Thomas is still useful most weeks, and this Titans matchup is a pretty good one, but Paxton Lynch just hasn't looked ready yet, so it will be hard to trust him if Trevor Siemian isn't back from his injury.
I actually thought Marshall might be pretty useful Monday night. Please don't laugh. This should have been the last straw for the Jets' passing game, as Marshall had just four catches for 43 yards and Ryan Fitzpatrick was finally benched for good.
Bryce Petty looked terrible in relief of Fitzpatrick on Monday against a bad Colts defense, making it awfully hard to trust anyone here, even with potentially the best possible matchup on the way against the hapless 49ers. Marshall may have a good game in San Francisco, but you don't want to pin your playoffs hopes on Petty's arm, do you?
6. Who is the WR typically outside your top 12 who will move me on to the next round?
- Jamey: Julian Edelman
- Dave: Brandon LaFell
- Heath: Tyrell Williams
When times are tough, Brady likes to lean on his security blanket, and that is Edelman with Gronkowski out. It isn't the most efficient connection -- 6.5 yards per target over the last three games -- but Brady knows he can rely on Edelman to move the ball when he needs to, and that volume certainly helps in Fantasy. He's a bit more valuable in PPR, with 24 catches over the last three weeks, but expect Brady to lean heavily on Edelman if the pass rush gets to him, making Edelman a solid play in any format.
LaFell ranks just 40th in Fantasy scoring at the position this season, and his standing doesn't improve much even if you just isolate the three games he has played largely without A.J. Green. LaFell had just 70 yards in the first two games without Green, but was targeted a total of 18 times, before finally breaking out in Week 13 with 95 yards and a touchdown.
LaFell is tough to trust most of the time, but coming off a game like that -- and heading into a game against the Browns -- makes him a viable option for this week.
Williams might typically be outside of the top 12, but Heath actually has him 10th -- Dave has him 12th and Jamey has him 15th -- for the upcoming matchup against the Panthers. Carolina's weakest point on defense remains their secondary, as their decision to go hunting in the bargain bin to replace Josh Norman has led to a bottom-six pass coverage grade from ProFootballFocus.com. Williams dealt with a shoulder injury last week, but still ended up finding the end zone, while playing 96 percent of the team's snaps, so it doesn't look like too much of a concern.
7. Which waiver-wire TE should I start?
- Jamey: Ladarius Green
- Dave: Ladarius Green
- Heath: Ladarius Green
We haven't had much consensus here, but this one was pretty easy. Zach Ertz is a bit too highly owned to really qualify, and Dennis Pitta is a relatively low-ceiling option -- when he isn't scoring two touchdowns in a game, like last week -- but Green is easy to get excited about. Heck, we've been getting excited about him for years, going back to his time in San Diego.
Of course, Green was never quite able to break out in San Diego, stuck behind the apparently ageless Antonio Gates. The competition is quite a bit less fierce in Pittsburgh, but injuries kept him out of the first eight games of the year, and he needed some time to get going after that. One week of six catches, 110 yards and a touchdown later, and it looks like Green has gotten going, and not a moment too soon. He has all of the physical tools to be a difference maker at tight end, and defenses aren't exactly going to be able to key in on him in an offense that features maybe the best receiver and best pass-catching running back in the league.
Green came into the season with plenty of hype, and he might finally be living up to it.
