Week 15 Rankings: Standard | PPR
Our trio of experts -- Jamey Eisenberg, Dave Richard, and Heath Cummings -- publish their first rankings of the week every Tuesday, and Chris Towers is here to break them down for the week ahead.
1. Who is the typical must-start QB who could ruin my season single-handedly?
- Jamey: Ben Roethlisberger
- Dave: Matthew Stafford
- Heath: Tom Brady
I'm not 100 percent sure I buy Roethlisberger's road struggles, just because they don't seem to have a reasonable explanation behind them. Unlike, say, Derek Carr, you can hardly argue Roethlisberger doesn't have enough exposure to cold weather to explain it away that way. Roethlisberger seems to do fine in the cold at home, as when he averaged 26.7 Fantasy points per game in November and December last season at home.
On the whole, Roethlisberger has averaged 30.1 Fantasy points per game over the past three seasons at home, compared to just 15.4 at home, which is just a massive gap. He put together another dreadful performance in Week 14 against the Bills, and now has to travel to Cincinnati, a team that held him to just 9.9 Fantasy points in a December meeting a year ago. I don't quite understand it, and I hate acting on what I don't understand, but after watching him post just 2.6 points last week in the snow, it's awfully hard to trust him.
The turnaround this Giants' defense has made has been remarkable this season, as they just completely shut down the Cowboys to move up to second in the "Fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks" rankings. That would be reason enough to be skeptical of Stafford this week, even if he wasn't dealing with a dislocated middle finger on his throwing hand. Stafford will play through the injury, and the Lions' short passing attack could mitigate some of the concerns about accuracy and velocity in his throwing. However, this is still a rough situation to be going into, and Stafford is likely to struggle yet again.
I thought Brady would struggle against the Ravens, after putting up lackluster performances against the Jets and Rams in the previous two weeks, so maybe doesn't listen to me. He torched what had been one of the best defenses in the league Monday, so why wouldn't he do so again in Week 15?
Well, the Broncos are a different sort of beast than any other defense in the league, pairing an elite pass rush with the NFL's most talented combination of corners. They held Marcus Mariota to just one second-half completion in Week 14, and have allowed only two quarterbacks to reach 20 Fantasy points all season.
The quarterback landscape is bleak enough that Brady still lands in the top 10 across the board, but the combination of no Rob Gronkowski and the Broncos' defense has the potential to make this a long day for Brady and his Fantasy owners.
2. Who is the QB typically outside your top 12 who will move me on to the next round?
- Jamey: Joe Flacco
- Dave: Tyrod Taylor
- Heath: Tyrod Taylor
Flacco is playing some of his best ball in years of late, tossing six touchdowns in his last two games, while racking up 705 yards and 60.2 Fantasy points over the last two games. He's got a chance to keep rolling in Week 15, against an Eagles' defense that has wilted of late. They still feature a strong pass rush, but they are vulnerable against the deep ball, as Desean Jackson showed again. Consistency remains an issue for Flacco, but he could find success against this defense, and with Mike Wallace and Breshad Perriman in his receiving corps, he might only need one or two big plays to turn in a good game.
Taylor ended up with good enough numbers in Week 14, as he scored 20 Fantasy points in a bounce-back performance against the Steelers. He wasn't great, but he did enough to be a worthy starting option, and he'll look to carry that momentum forward into Week 15 against the Browns. The Browns have been the worst defense in the league against opposing quarterbacks, and were carved up for 64 yards by Marcus Mariota earlier in the season, one of the few running quarterbacks they have faced. The Browns are a mess all around on defense, and Taylor should be able to take advantage of it in a weak quarterback field.
3. Who is the typical must-start RB who could ruin my season single-handedly?
- Jamey: Mark Ingram
- Dave: Devontae Booker
- Heath: Mark Ingram
Ingram continues to be a source of great frustration for Fantasy players. He is averaging a career-best 5.1 yards per carry, but has just 14 carries over his past two games as his role continues to fluctuate. In fact, he has just seven carries in three of the past four games, hardly the kind of workload you've like to see from a starting running back.
When he just shares playing time with Tim Hightower, Ingram can still be productive, as he showed in scoring two touchdowns and racking up 167 yards on 15 touches in Week 13. However, lately, the Saints have been getting Travaris Cadet involved in the offense, which creates a three-headed backfield situation that doesn't help anyone. A matchup against a still-tough Cardinals defense in Week 15 only makes Ingram's situation worse.
Booker still led the Broncos in snaps at the running back position in Week 14, but his hold on the position has never looked more tenuous. He played just one more snap than Justin Forsett, who signed with the team earlier in the week and fumbled on his first carry with the team.
The fact that Booker wasn't able to fend off the newcomer after that probably isn't a great sign for his prospects moving forward. He probably won't be buried, but he hasn't shown enough to be a must-start option even in a full-time role. As a part-time player, Booker might not even be worth a roster spot.
4. Who is the RB typically outside your top 12 who will move me on to the next round?
- Jamey: Bilal Powell
- Dave: Isaiah Crowell
- Heath: Kenneth Dixon
Powell is an easy call here, if you can snag him on waivers this week. He had a huge game against the 49ers in Week 14, and while the matchup explains some of that, the fact remains that he is likely to see a huge role in Week 15 if Matt Forte's knee injury keeps him out.
The Jets are working on a short week before Saturday's game against the Dolphins, and Powell should be a viewed as a solid start in all leagues this week.
Crowell is going to end up with solid numbers this season, as he has an outside shot at 1,000 yards, while carrying a 4.6 YPC average into the final weeks of the season. However, he hasn't been easy to rely on.
He had just 110 yards on 2.2 YPC in his previous five games before racking up 113 on 10 carries in Week 14. Crowell can obviously be helpful, and the big-play ability he has shown this season is a source of excitement in a season that has rarely had any for the Browns. But it's still awfully hard to trust someone with just one game over 11 carries since Week 6.
Dixon certainly looks like the more exciting back in Baltimore, coming off a game with 81 yards from scrimmage, including eight receptions for 42 yards and a score in the loss to the Patriots.
For the second time in three games, Dixon played more snaps than Terrance West, so we could be witnessing a changing of the guard for the Ravens, who have been looking for an answer at running back all season. The problem here might be the matchup, because the Eagles have done a great job against opposing running backs, holding them to 4.15 yards per carry and allowing the 12th-fewest Fantasy points per game to running backs.
The strength of this Eagles' defense is up front, so it could be tough for Dixon to get going in what is still likely to be close to a timeshare.
5. Who is the typical must-start WR who could ruin my season single-handedly?
- Jamey: Brandon Marshall
- Dave: Brandin Cooks
- Heath: Brandin Cooks
I thought Marshall had a chance to put together a good performance in Week 14 with a premium matchup against 49ers on the way, but that's now two weeks in a row where he has fallen on his face against good matchups. It probably isn't Marshall's fault, but it might be fair to say that, at 32, he might not be able to overcome mediocre quarterback play anymore.
It's sad to watch one of the best wide receivers of his generation fail like this, but with Bryce Petty clearly not looking for Marshall the way you would expect of a No. 1 wide receiver, you just cannot rely on him at this point. Of course, given how his season has gone, you probably aren't playing for much if you've been relying on Marshall.
Cooks' career has been marred by inconsistency, but we thought he had turned a corner when he ran off that string of huge performances last season. Unfortunately, he has struggled to return value on a weekly basis again in Year 3, and is now on pace for worse production across the board than he managed a year ago. He can still be useful, but Cooks hasn't had a game in double figures in standard scoring since Week 10, and has done so just five times in 13 games on the season.
The Cardinals' defense lost some key pieces over the last few weeks, and may not be the formidable force they once were, but they still have Patrick Peterson on the outside. Add in the fact that Cooks has averaged just 7.3 Fantasy points per game for his career on the road -- compared to 12.2 on the road -- and it's awfully hard to trust him this week.
6. Who is the WR typically outside your top 12 who will move me on to the next round?
- Jamey: Taylor Gabriel
- Dave: Tyreek Hill
- Heath: Sammy Watkins
Because he relies so heavily on hitting on big plays, Gabriel remains a tough player to trust on a weekly basis, even if he seems to hit on a big play on a weekly basis. It hasn't quite been every week -- he only had 44 yards in Week 13 -- but Gabriel has actually been pretty consistent of late, scoring in double digits in Fantasy in five of the past six games.
He is a threat to score every time he touches the ball, and gets to go against a paper-thin 49ers defense in Week 15. Whether Julio Jones plays or not, Gabriel is going to be an interesting play this Sunday.
Hill is a lot like Gabriel, in that he is succeeding in spit of a workload that would typically scare us off most players. He played just 25 snaps in each of the Chiefs' last two games, but managed to score 12 Fantasy points in Week 14, thanks to a long touchdown, his sixth of the season.
Hill isn't an every-down player for the Chiefs, but he has at least 50 yards and four catches over the past five games, with three touchdowns to boot. He isn't scoring in the most sustainable way ever, and as Weeks 11 and 13 showed, there is some moderate bust potential if he doesn't hit on a big play or find the end zone.
On the other hand, he is arguably the fastest player in the NFL, and is a threat to score every time he touches the ball on offense or special teams. He has a fantastic matchup against a bad Titans' secondary, so don't be surprised if he gets loose yet again this week.
When he is fully healthy, Watkins is on another tier from these other two, but he is still being worked back in from his foot injury, with his four catches on Sunday representing his high since coming back. Watkins did play a full role in Week 14, getting on the field for 49 of the Bills' 52 snaps, a very good sign for his prospects down the stretch.
We saw how dominant Watkins can be when healthy late last season, and now he gets to match up against the league's worst set of corners. Watkins remains a bit of a risk given his injury history, but you have to like his chances to perhaps post his first 100-yard game of the season. How's that for having your patience rewarded?
