We're approaching the point in the season where people start making rash decisions based on two weeks of football.
I understand the psychology behind it, but in most cases you'll find that I disagree. Two weeks at the beginning of the season feel far more important than two weeks in the middle, but in most cases they're not.
That doesn't mean you shouldn't react to some things that have happened this year. It would be silly to ignore everything. It just means that the most important trait this time of year is patience. Thankfully some of the quarterbacks you need to be most patient with have fabulous matchups this week. We'll get to that below, but first here's Week 3 in a Tweet:
Throwback Thursday Night Football
The NFL has fully embraced the lack of offense on Thursday nights, and I love it. There's no rule that says that good football has to involve 400 yard passing games. Defense and running backs can be beautiful too. And they should be on Thursday night when the 49ers meet the Rams.
Carlos Hyde and Todd Gurley are must starts, and I'd be fine starting either defense. Pierre Garcon is a fine PPR flex, but the Rams receivers are what I'll be watching closely. Much has been made of Jared Goff's connection with Cooper Kupp. That's great for Kupp's value, but it's hurting Sammy Watkins and it's hurting the Rams offense. Watkins is the most talented receiver on the team, but you can't start him until Goff acknowledges that.
A slugfest in London between the Ravens and Jaguars
The Ravens and Jaguars are our first London game of the season. It's a good thing they like kickers in Europe. I hope they like defense as well.
The first thing you need to know about this is that we'll have morning football, so if you want to play someone from this game you'll need to set your lineup earlier Sunday. But do you really want to start someone from this game?
Much like the Thursday night game, I'm trying to avoid all of these receivers. If I had to pick one, it would be Marqise Lee, who got 12 targets in Week 2. I understand if you want to sit Leonard Fournette, but in most cases you probably need to start him. One exception might be if you have Javorius Allen and Terrance West sits.
Start all your Dolphins
It's the Jets! Start everybody! Jay Ajayi is our consensus No. 1 running back, the Dolphins DST is my favorite streaming option, and both Jarvis Landry and DeVante Parker are quality receiving options. Even Kenny Stills could be a boom-or-bust flex play.
On the other side, Jermaine Kearse is the closest thing to a good play the Jets have. He's getting targets and they'll have to throw the ball a ton. Bilal Powell used to be the running back to target in these types of games, but he's getting outplayed by Matt Forte this year. Stay away.
The Bengals have a new offensive coordinator
The Bengals have yet to score a touchdown through two weeks. That seems like as good a reason to fire your offensive coordinator as any. I don't believe new OC Bill Lazor wil solve the Bengals offensive line problems, but I am interested to see what he does with the running backs.
The hope is that Joe Mixon becomes the feature back, Giovani Bernard excels again in a change-of-pace role and Jeremy Hill ends up on the bench where he belongs. But until that happens, I can't start any of the Bengals running backs. Jamey Eisenberg disagrees and sees Mixon as a fine sleeper at running back this week.
While I'm uncertain about the running game, I do expect a bounceback from A.J. Green. This is your last opportunity to buy low on the star receiver. He should see even more targets if Tyler Eifert is out. Speaking of which ...
All the tight ends are hurt
We know Greg Olsen is out for at least six weeks, but he was far from the only tight end injury. Jimmy Graham has an ankle injury. Jordan Reed has a bruised chest. Rob Gronkowski tweaked his groin. Everything hurts for Tyler Eifert. I'm most optimistic about Gronkowski and feel the worst about Eifert.
Jack Doyle was the best option to replace these guys, but if you missed him you're going to have to dig a bit deeper. Here are three options still widely available.
- Benjamin Watson should see a decent target volume against Jacksonville.
- Charles Clay faces a Denver defense that just gave up 10-97-1 to Jason Witten.
- Ed Dickson gets the best matchup, the Saints, but he's far from reliable.
Cam Newton and other struggling quarterbacks bounce back
Remember what we talked about at the top? Patience? You're gonna need it to start Cam Newton, Russell Wilson and Kirk Cousins this week. The three of them are off to disastrous starts to the Fantasy season. but I have all three in my top ten for Week 3.
Newton is our start of the week against a Saints defense that has been extremely generous this season. New Orleans is giving up 512 yards per game and 11.2 yards per pass attempt. Even without Greg Olsen, Newton should be able to put together his best game of the season. If he doesn't, you can start to panic.
Wilson's matchup (the Titans) doesn't look quite as good on paper. They've only given up 230 yards per game through the air. That doesn't seem like much until you remember they faced Blake Bortles in Week 2. I was very encouraged by Wilson's usage in the running game in Week 2 and expect more of the same this week.
Cousins faces a Raiders defense that has to travel across the country to play in a primetime game. I'm not impressed by the Raiders secondary and expect that both Cousins and Terrelle Pryor bounce back in a big way in Week 3.
Tarik Cohen and Theo Riddick amongst pass-catching running backs that are moving up rankings
There are two trends in the NFL driving the usage of pass-catching backs. One is the obvious trend of more passing, which has been going on for some time. The other, more recent, trend is that of bad offensive line play. There's no better way to slow down a pass rush than with screens and dump offs to running backs. In PPR leagues specifically, this means we have a ton of guys in our top 30 running backs that have almost no chance at 15 carries.
Tarik Cohen has been the most high-profile in the first two weeks. Cohen's 21 targets through two weeks are the most of any running back and the sixth most for any position. If Jordan Howard is unable to go, Cohen is someone you must start. Even if Howard plays, I'd use Cohen as a second running back in PPR.
Other pass-catching backs to consider this week in PPR are Shane Vereen, Chris Thompson, Duke Johnson, Darren Sproles and James White. Theo Riddick is must-start against a Falcons defense that hasn't been able cover backs for two years.
Breakout candidates Marcus Mariota and Jameis Winston face big tests
I was up and down on Jameis Winston this preseason, but I never wavered on Marcus Mariota. I expected him to turn into a star. Through two games he's been anything but. Now both quarterbacks have difficult matchups in Week 3, and it's tempting to panic.
Winston faces the Vikings in Minnesota. Vikings corner Xavier Rhodes just did a number on Antonio Brown and now has his eyes set on Mike Evans. Mariota gets an even better Seahawks defense, but at least he's at home. Unfortunately, his best receiver (Corey Davis) has already been ruled out and his best running back (DeMarco Murray) hasn't practiced as of Thursday. These are less than ideal circumstances.
I have both young quarterbacks outside of my top 10 but I wouldn't go so far as to bench them for Jay Cutler or Trevor Siemian. Speaking of Siemian ...
Breaking down the matchups for Week 2 breakouts
I try not to overreact to a week or two, but these guys were pretty awesome last week. Here's a look at their Week 3 matchups:
Trevor Siemian at Buffalo: The Bills rank fifth in the NFL in Y/A allowed (5.8) and are one of only two teams yet to allow a passing touchdown. I don't think they're as good as their numbers, but they are a bad matchup. Especially in a trap game like this for a Broncos team traveling to the East Coast across two time zones. No, thanks.
Derrick Henry vs. Seattle: The Seahawks haven't been very impressive in terms of Fantasy points allowed to running backs, but that was mostly because of Ty Montgomery's work in the passing game and two long runs from Carlos Hyde. I still think they're really good. I'll start Henry as a No. 2 if DeMarco Murray is out, but if Murray suits up, I'm avoiding both Titans running backs.
J.J. Nelson vs. Dallas: The Cowboys were torched by Siemian and the Broncos last week. Their secondary is completely beat up and they're playing their second consecutive road game. John Brown is still out, so the opportunity is still there. I like Nelson as a No. 2 receiver in both formats.
Evan Engram at Philadelphia: Travis Kelce just had a huge game against this defense, but the Eagles pretty well held Jordan Reed in check. I love Engram the player and think he has a bright future, but this is going to be a low-scoring game and he hasn't carved out a big enough chunk of the offense. Even with all the injuries at tight end, I'm passing this week.
Cowboys and Cardinals face familiar story
The Cowboys schedule has been brutal. The Cardinals have had a cake walk. In terms of the defenses these two teams will face in Week 3, nothing is really changing.
Again, I'll preach patience with Ezekiel Elliott and Dez Bryant, but I'm out on Dak Prescott in a one-quarterback league. Prescott has a bright future ahead of him, and I wouldn't drop him, but don't start him this week.
Of course, it probably sounds crazy to you that I am starting Palmer. The matchup is just too good for me to give up on him, despite a rough start to the season. I'm also starting Larry Fitzgerald and Nelson, but I'm mostly avoiding the Cardinals running backs. If I was really desperate, Chris Johnson would be my choice.