"The best laid schemes of mice and men
Go often askew"- Robert Burns, To a Mouse
Or as I referenced in this week's streaming article, trust the process.
Week 3 of the NFL season turned a lot of our notions on their heads. Cam Newton struggled against the Saints, the Jets won a football game, the Jaguars hung a 40-burger on the Ravens and Derek Carr looked like his older brother.
Maybe some of those things we should have seen coming, but there's no time for lamenting failures of the past. It's more important to figure out what it means for Week 4 and beyond. First, here's Week 4 in a Tweet:
Dolphins play the Saints in London and we aren't giving up on them
OK, I'm not willing to go quite as far as Cena here. If the Dolphins lay another egg against the Saints, I'm absolutely giving up on ever streaming Jay Cutler again. I may give up on Jay Ajayi being a top-five running back as well. But for this week? I'm all in again. DeVante Parker is a top-15 receiver in both formats. Ajayi is as must-start as they come. Jarvis Landry has top-10 potential in PPR. And yes, Cutler is a streamer.
Of course the other angle of this is that we have another game in London. A couple of things about that. Obviously, you need to check your lineup earlier on Sunday morning. Also, if you're starting anyone in this game (or any early game for that matter), don't have them in your flex. Save that position for later games to give you more flexibility in case there's a surprise that pops up late Sunday morning.
Kirk Cousins, Matthew Stafford & Derek Carr owners need to find replacements
Hoping for a bounce-back from Derek Carr? He's in Denver against the Broncos this week, so good luck.
Carr has played five games against the Broncos defense in his career and he's topped 200 yards passing once. He has six touchdown passes and four interceptions in those five games. You're starting almost everyone over him. Matthew Stafford (at Minnesota) and Kirk Cousins (at Kansas City) are better plays than Carr, but you don't want to start them either. Thankfully, there are good streaming options available.
I broke down the top three options here, but my favorite is Deshaun Watson. Watson's combination of elusiveness and moxie give him a solid floor as he develops as a passer. Maybe more importantly he got Ryan Griffin back last week, and Will Fuller is expected in Week 4. I feel more comfortable starting Watson than Cousins, Stafford or Carr.
Vontaze Burfict is back and that's bad news for the Browns
The Cleveland Browns aren't exactly great Fantasy options each week as it is. But this week they're almost untouchable. The Bengals defense has a lot of talent, but more than anything they play on emotion and the emotion is going to be out of control with Burfict's return in Week 4. Duke Johnson is the only Brown I'm really excited about starting, and I'm only excited in PPR. The Bengals defense is one of the best streamers.
The other major benefactor is Joe Mixon. Mixon became the feature back in Week 3 and topped 100 yards on 20 touches. I expect even more this week as he feasts on a tired Browns defense.
Mark Ingram and the buy-low candidates
Go get these five guys in trades before Week 4:
| QB |
Derek Carr
Oakland Raiders QB
|
| Carr owners suffered through last week and have a Denver matchup staring them in the face. Take him of their hands for a song and pick up Watson to start this week. | |
| RB |
Mark Ingram
New Orleans Saints RB
|
| Slowly but surely, Sean Payton is realizing what we all know. There is no reason to waste carries on Adrian Peterson when you have two better backs on the roster. | |
| RB |
LeSean McCoy
Buffalo Bills RB
|
| McCoy has had two brutal matchups in a row, but he's going to feast on the Falcons defense. This defense can't stop pass-catching RBs and McCoy leads the Bills in targets. | |
| WR |
Amari Cooper
Oakland Raiders WR
|
| Cooper will resume being a No. 2 WR once his visit to Denver is over. You'll have an easier time trading for him now because this week's matchup makes it so hard to be optimistic. | |
| WR |
Corey Davis
Tennessee Titans WR
|
| Davis is one of my favorite stashes. He may be on the waiver wire, but if he's not you should be able to acquire him for next to nothing. Davis will be a top-25 receiver in the second half. | |
Chris Thompson and the sell-high candidates
It's time to sell these four before their value plummets.
| RB |
Todd Gurley
Los Angeles Rams RB
|
| I like Gurley and I love his opportunity in the passing game. But his schedule is about to get brutal. He'll be a solid No. 2 running back the rest of the season but you can get top-10 value. | |
| RB |
Chris Thompson
Washington Redskins RB
|
| Thompson has scored four times on 27 touches. He's averaging 8.5 yards per carry and 17.8 yards per reception. None of these things are sustainable and his role isn't increasing. He's a fine PPR No. 2 RB, but you can get more for him. | |
| WR |
Stefon Diggs
Minnesota Vikings WR
|
| Stefon Diggs made the entire industry look ridiculous in Week 3. So it takes some guts to say you should sell him now. But you should sell him now. It's easy to get Amari Cooper for him, and I'd do it, but you can aim even higher. | |
| WR |
Chris Hogan
New England Patriots WR
|
| Hogan is not getting enough targets to justify his must-start perception. There will be Amendola games in the future. See if you can get a receiver or running back you actually feel comfortable starting. | |
| TE |
Jason Witten
Dallas Cowboys TE
|
| I'd expect a lot more blocking and a lot less pass catching from Witten now that the schedule is opening up for the Cowboys. | |
The Ravens offense may just be unplayable
No team has had worse injury luck since the start of camp than the Baltimore Ravens, and it showed in Week 3 against the Jaguars. While it's easy to say it was just one bad game, there's also reason to worry it could be part of a trend. Joe Flacco looks awful and has no protection. Mike Wallace has been invisible. Terrance West was never going to inspire confidence in the first place. The one Raven I'm starting this week is Javorius Allen in PPR, but even that feels risky. If this team gets dominated again we may just have to walk away from all of our Ravens.
Injured wide receivers could open door for sleepers
Injuries are never a good thing, unless you're the guy who gets to play because of one. With Doug Baldwin and Sammy Watkins on the injury report there are sleepers at the receiver position that could deliver in a pinch.
Watkins has been a partial participant in practice, but he remains in the concussion protocol. If he's out, Week 1 darling Cooper Kupp will be a popular add against an atrocious Cowboys defense. And he should be. But don't sleep on Robert Woods. Woods actually had more yards that Watkins in his breakout Week 3.
Baldwin has indicated that he will play, and we expect he will. But he's in the Sunday night game, so it's still likely to make you a bit nervous. I would add Tyler Lockett or Paul Richardson to your bench if you own Baldwin, just to ease your mind. Against a matchup as good as the Colts, either could be a boom-or-bust flex play even if Baldwin plays.
The Tampa Bay defense is banged up
Things are getting better, but that's still quite an injury report.
Lavonte David and Kwon Alexander are both not practicing and the defensive line is mostly limited. If the Giants had any type of running game, you might get excited about this. But they have their own problems of their own, with Orleans Darkwa and Shane Vereen both sitting out practice so far this week. While Brent Grimes is back, I do think this helps Eli Manning. Tampa Bay's full defense could give the Giants offensive line fits. The group they'll have on Sunday will give Manning enough time to find Odell Beckham and Sterling Shepard.
Be wary of Washington on Monday Night Football
Playing at Arrowhead at night is no joke. Both Kirk Cousins and Terrelle Pryor found their way into Jamey Eisenberg's sits this week, and Dave Richard even rates Chris Thompson as a risky start. I'm fine starting Thompson in PPR, and I'll start Vernon Davis if Jordan Reed is out at tight end. Other than that I'd prefer to stay away from Washington in Week 4.