Fantasy Football Week 5 Running Back Preview: Projecting the Chiefs backfield with Damien Williams back

One of the most appealing things about drafting Damien Williams was supposed to be Andy Reid's consistent usage of a bell-cow back in the past. While the job has still been profitable for Fantasy owners, it hasn't been a bell-cow situation, and it mostly hasn't been Damien Williams. 

LeSean McCoy and Darrel Williams have taken advantage of the fact that Damien Williams has missed the past two weeks with a knee contusion, but it looks like he'll return on Sunday night against the Colts. That makes everything a little messier in what is still a fantastic situation.

The back that seems the easiest to project is McCoy. No matter who he was sharing with, McCoy has consistently seen between 11 and 14 touches in all four games. That's not very many touches, but it's enough in this offense. He has double digit PPR points in three of four games and has scored three touchdowns in the two games Damien Williams missed. 

I projected McCoy for 13 touches, 80 yards and a very good shot of at least one touchdown against the Colts. That makes him a low-end No. 2 running back better in non-PPR. 

As for Damien and Darrel Williams, I feel far less certain. I expect Damien Williams will be the No. 2 back this week and have him projected for 10 touches. But he's been very inefficient in limited work, so he's a flex at best. What really scares me is the way the Chiefs have used Darrel Williams as a closer. 

In the past two weeks Darrel Williams has 12 fourth-quarter touches. He's turned them into 78 yards and a touchdown. If Damien Williams sees 40% of the touches in the first three quarters and then Darrel Williams is used to seal the deal late,  you probably won't want to start either of them. 

Week 5 RB Preview

The following players are not being projected to play Week 5 at this time. Here's what it means:

Jamaal Williams RB NO New Orleans • #21 Age: 29 • Experience: 8 yrs. The Packers looked like they were set to give Jamaal Williams even more work on Thursday. If he can't go, Aaron Jones should have close to a feature role.

• 111 - Touches for Christian McCaffrey. That's 19 more touches than any other player in the NFL this year. If he holds up to this workload, he's going to be the most valuable player in Fantasy.  
• 44.3% - The percentage of Frank Gore's carries that have come against eight in the box. That's the highest mark in the league, which makes it even more remarkable that he's been Fantasy relevant.
• 6 - David Johnson has at least six receptions in three of four Cardinals games. There is a huge difference between his value in non-PPR and PPR right now. 
• 2.8 - Yards per carry for Sony Michel. That's last among running backs with at least 40 attempts. He's also not catching the ball, making him extremely touchdown-dependent. 
• 0% - Not to pick on Michel, but this is his broken tackle rate. He hasn't broken one all season. 
• 0 - Touchdowns for Leonard Fournette this season. And he's still a top-10 running back in both formats. There's enormous upside with the volume he's getting. 
• 21 - Broken tackles for Chris Carson on Sunday. He answered the bell in a big way and should hold on to his feature role for now. 
• 16 - Second-half touches for Ronald Jones. No other Buccaneers RB had more than one. It may finally be happening. 
• 3 - Catches for Josh Jacobs this year. That is not going to cut it if you're looking for a top-20 season. 
• 6.1 - Yards after contact per attempt for Jordan Wilkins this year. That's best among running backs with at least 10 carries.

Matchups that Matter

Marlon Mack RB ARI Arizona • #37 Age: 28 • Experience: 7 yrs. Week 5 Matchup @ KC The Chiefs are allowing 5.9 yards per carry to opposing running backs, the worst mark in the league. The Colts should try to establish the run and take the air out of the ball like Detroit tried to do with Kerryon Johnson.

Josh Jacobs RB GB Green Bay • #8 Age: 26 • Experience: 6 yrs. Week 5 Matchup vs. CHI Jacobs has looked every bit the first-round talent, but he runs into a stiff test in Week 5. The Bears have only allowed 11.5 Fantasy points per game and a lot of that damage has come through the air, where Jacobs hasn't been used.

Latavius Murray RB BUF Buffalo • #28 Age: 34 • Experience: 11 year Week 5 Matchup vs. TB The Buccaneers are allowing 2.9 yards per carry to opposing running backs. This is not the week to hope Murray can provide flex appeal with limited touches.

Week 5 Adds

Nyheim Hines RB CLE Cleveland • #22 Age: 28 • Experience: 6 yrs. Ownership 31% Even with Mack likely active, Hines could be a solid play against the Chiefs. He caught six passes last week while chasing the score. My problem with Hines is his inefficiency when they throw him the ball. He's turned 97 career targets into just 499 yards. That's Carlos Hyde level inefficiency.

Ito Smith RB DAL Dallas • #43 Age: 29 • Experience: 4 yrs. Ownership 29% If you're really desperate this week, plug Smith in there and hope he gets the goal-line work as he did in Week 4. There should be plenty of touchdowns to go around in this game.

Stashes

Alexander Mattison RB LV Las Vegas • #22 Age: 26 • Experience: 6 yrs. Ownership 55% I don't have any new justification, but Mattison is going to remain at the top of this list because of his situation. He's the clear handcuff to a back who has yet to play 16 games in a season. He's also on a team that strives to be one of the most run-heavy teams in the league and is averaging 5.1 yards per carry.

Tony Pollard RB TEN Tennessee • #20 Age: 27 • Experience: 6 yrs. Ownership 52% Much like Mattison, Pollard is just one injury away from a featured role in a very good situation. I prefer Mattison because of Cook's injury history, but both Pollard and Mattison need to be rostered virtually everywhere.

Top Plays

Christian McCaffrey RB SF San Francisco • #23 Age: 28 • Experience: 8 yrs. Week 5 Prices FanDuel $9,100 DraftKings $8,700 McCaffrey is the highest priced back on both sites, but he's also the best value. Based on my projections, you'd either have to price McCaffrey over $10,000 or price everyone else below $8,000 to make someone else No. 1. He has eight more carries than any other back while averaging nearly 5 yards per carry. He leads the position in receptions and is averaging better than 8 yards per catch. He's the No. 1 player at the position and he's probably had rotten touchdown luck. There's no reason to get cute; just play McCaffrey.

Contrarian Plays

David Montgomery RB DET Detroit • #5 Age: 27 • Experience: 6 yrs. Week 5 Prices FanDuel $5,700 DraftKings $5,200 Early in the week there's a lot of guess work when it comes to projected ownership, but Montgomery hasn't done much yet to make people excited about playing him. I expect that will change in Week 5 against the Raiders. They'll be without Vontaze Burfict, which helps, but mostly I'm just counting on Montgomery's volume paying off. He had 24 touches last week and he has 16 or more in each of his past three games. Dalvin Cook is he only running back with at least 16 touches against the Raiders this year, and he posted 143 yards and a score.

So who should you sit and start this week? And which surprising quarterback could lead you to victory? Visit SportsLine now to get Week 5 rankings for every position, plus see which QB is going to come out of nowhere to crack the top 10, all from the model that out-performed experts big time last season.