Fantasy Football Week 8 Stealing Signals: Stats, waiver targets, trade candidates for every game

Week 8 was big for many of the game's brightest stars. Christian McCaffrey overcame his toughest test to date, Dalvin Cook kept rolling, and Saquon Barkley showed he's back at full health. Top-end wide receivers like DeAndre Hopkins, Julio Jones, Michael Thomas, and Mike Evans all had at least 10 catches and 100 yards. Cooper Kupp went for more yards than any of them. And then Aaron Jones, Tevin Coleman, and Latavius Murray all crushed. 

Let's dig into what was signal and what was noise, as we run through every game on the schedule, beginning with the early slate from Sunday:

Data is typically courtesy of Pro Football Reference, RotoViz, the RotoGrinders Premium Usage App, airyards.com or PFF. Always feel free to hit me up on Twitter @YardsPerGretch with any questions about anything I covered or to ask my thoughts on something I glossed over. That is some of my favorite feedback, because sometimes it's something I've missed.

Here are some important statistical acronyms to know for Stealing Signals:

Green Zone - Inside the opponent's 10-yard line.
HVT - High-Value Touches: for running backs, all receptions and all touches inside the 10 yard line. 
TRAP - Trivial Rush Attempt Percentage: for running backs, the percentage of all touches that are not high-value touches.
WOPR - Weighted Opportunity Rating: a metric created by Josh Hermsmeyer, it balances team share of targets and team share of air yards. Because a player's WOPR is a share of his team's overall opportunity, it's important to consider team volume as additional context. 
RACR - Receiver Air Conversion Ratio: also created by Hermsmeyer, RACR is calculated as total receiving yards divided by total air yards. Similar to yards per reception or yards per target, but per air yard instead.

Week 8

Vikings 19 - Washington 9

• Snap notes: Bisi Johnson: 74% (+3% vs. last week's season high), Case Keenum: 67% (concussion), Dwayne Haskins: 33%  
• Key stat: Stefon Diggs — 445 air yards over past three games (148.3 per game)  

Week 8 got started with a whimper, as the Vikings kicked four field goals and scored a touchdown to knock off Washington's three field goals. 

Minnesota got a lead and showed off their known willingness to be run-heavy, as Dalvin Cook ran 23 times for 98 yards and a score and Alexander Mattison still added another 13 carries for 61 yards in relief. Though Mattison racked up a lot of that while running out the clock — including three of his whopping five green zone rush attempts — he also had three strong runs negated by penalties and in some ways looked better than his stats. He remains one of the most valuable handcuffs/stashes in Fantasy given the Vikings' offensive system and his clear hold on the No. 2 role. 

Meanwhile, after Washington found some success in the passing game in the first half, Case Keenum entered the concussion protocol at the break and they never got anything going behind Dwayne Haskins in the second half. Minnesota so thoroughly shortened the game that Washington ran just 14 second-half plays on four short drives plus one final play at the end of the game. Overall, they ran just 41 plays, which tied their effort last week for fewest offensive plays by any team in a game this season.

It's tough to read much from Haskins' five second half pass attempts, but what was there seemed to confirm his one earlier game this season that he's looked overmatched. He notably sailed a throw to an open Terry McLaurin after the Vikings failed to convert a fourth down in their own territory that set Washington up with great field position in a seven-point game late in the third. The pass deflected off McLaurin's out-stretched hands and went for an interception. Haskins otherwise completed three short passes, two to Adrian Peterson and one to tight end Jeremy Sprinkle, and took two sacks. 

Both Terry McLaurin (6-4-39) and Paul Richardson (4-3-34) had solid first halves against Minnesota's cornerbacks — a matchup that doesn't necessarily need to be shied away from, as we discussed in our Week 7 review — before both were shut out in the second half. McLaurin is obviously the more Fantasy-relevant name, but his potential takes a nosedive without Keenum in the game. We'll track Keenum's health, but with 10 days between games it seems very possible he could recover and not miss any time. 

Peterson put up the best numbers for Washington's offense, rushing 14 times for 76 yards and catching those two second-half passes from Haskins for another 27. Peterson got one green-zone touch, a carry from the 2-yard line where he was unable to get in, but Washington called passing plays on four of their five plays in close, including two McLaurin targets. Despite Washington clearly being willing to commit to the run, Peterson's upside remains capped by a mostly low-value touch distribution. 

Minnesota continued its recent success throwing the ball, notably featuring Stefon Diggs with Adam Thielen out. I noted in Wednesday's news and notes column Bisi Johnson would play in Thielen's role and both tight ends would be more involved with Thielen sidelined, but said "Minnesota ultimately projects to go run-heavy in a game where they are double-digit favorites, so while Stefon Diggs becomes a must-start, the other pass-catchers are more just desperation plays, as none of the three have particularly bankable target projections behind Diggs." That ultimately proved to be a good synopsis of this passing game; Diggs went 7-7-143 as the main option while each of Johnson, Kyle Rudolph and Irv Smith saw two or three targets, splitting the remaining downfield work while Kirk Cousins threw just 26 passes. Expect a similar distribution if Thielen misses more time, but his injury seems minor. 

Cook also remained active in the passing game, catching five of six targets for 73 yards, but his value isn't really necessary to expand on. Diggs fumbled for the fourth time this season, but it hasn't impacted his playing time and is more just a weird note for now. He should be in all lineups for a Week 9 matchup with Kansas City.

• Signal: Washington — slow, run-heavy since Bill Callahan took over; Alexander Mattison — should be rostered in all leagues  
• Noise: Stefon Diggs — four fumbles this season (two prior across rest of NFL career)

Week 8

Saints 31 - Cardinals 9

• Snap Notes: Latavius Murray: 82% (over 80% both games without Alvin Kamara), Christian Kirk: 86% (first game since Week 4), Damiere Byrd: 88% (most since Week 3), Chase Edmonds: 61% (hamstring injury)
• Key Stat: Latavius Murray — 12 high-value touches (second most in Week 8)

Drew Brees made his triumphant return, throwing for 373 yards and three scores, as the Saints easily dispatched the Cardinals. It remains remarkable this is so routine, but there's not much more to add about the consistent efficiency displayed in Michael Thomas's 11-11-112-1 receiving line that hasn't already been said over the past couple seasons.

Latavius Murray caught 9-of-12 targets and also rushed for 100 yards and a score, racking up high-value touches the way Saints backs always do, except for the second consecutive week he didn't have to share them. A comment I considered for my DFS article last week was I'd play almost literally any running back (i.e. I was going to name-drop Trent Richardson) in this offense, in this matchup, at Murray's price, if I could ensure something like 80% of the RB touches (I said as much in other words). Murray wound up with 30 touches — 83% of the backfield — and predictably crushed. 

It was a fairly typical Saints' performance in that outside Thomas and the backfield, there wasn't a ton of production. With Jared Cook out, both Josh Hill and Dan Arnold got some opportunity against the best tight end matchup in the league, but splitting that work meant neither hit. Taysom Hill did instead, going 3-3-63-1 in his Fantasy-unfriendly role. 

Ted Ginn's two targets at a 20.5 aDOT were somewhat notable in that he's continuously played a big role (ran routes on 77% of dropbacks in Week 8) and Brees is more likely to go downfield than Teddy Bridgewater was. Expect Ginn to have some solid games when New Orleans needs to push the ball more than they did in this easy win.  

Christian Kirk dominated the Cardinals' receiving production in his return to the lineup, going 11-8-79 with a team-high 122 air yards and adding a 19-yard carry. Larry Fitzgerald continued a run of play that suggests he's on his last legs, and while he's earned some benefit of the doubt by proving everyone who counted him out wrong several times before, such an outcome would only further solidify Kirk's second-half potential. 

While Kirk was out, Kyler Murray leaned on Fitzgerald and David Johnson, as no one else has stepped up in this receiving corps. It is possible Kirk gets absolutely peppered down the stretch with Johnson ailing and Fitzgerald's range of outcomes including being a minor factor going forward. Of course, Fitzgerald could bounce back as well; the opportunity will be there for him, too.

Charles Clay had a decent game with a 3-3-88 line, including 68 air yards, but one of his big plays came on a designed trick play throwback to Murray. He ran routes on just 26% of dropbacks and hasn't been a consistent enough piece of the offense for this to register. 

And then there are the backs, with Chase Edmonds struggling against the difficult matchup before exiting in the third quarter with a hamstring injury and the Cardinals subsequently trading for Kenyan Drake on Monday. The trade is difficult to parse — the immediate reaction that Johnson's injuries must be more serious than we're aware is very plausible, but the Cardinals also didn't have to part with much to acquire the free agent-to-be. 

Drake is expected to play extensively on Thursday night and will be worth a look in Week 9, but his future is uncertain and stretches all the way from being a lead back if Johnson is out of the picture for an extended period to being an afterthought if Johnson is back and Edmonds retains his No. 2 role. Chris Towers has more on the trade.

• Signal: Christian Kirk — big opportunity, should continue; Ted Ginn — playing enough to have some splash games with Brees looking 100%
• Noise: Charles Clay — 88 yards on just 10 routes run

Week 8

Titans 27 - Buccaneers 23

• Snap Notes: Jonnu Smith: 73%, Peyton Barber: 35%, Dare Ogunbowale: 33%, Ronald Jones: 27% (two straight games below 30%), Cameron Brate: 66% (+23 vs. previous season high)
• Key Stat: Derrick Henry — 4 HVT on 56 total touches over the past three games

In Fantasy lineups, Ryan Tannehill's performance looked pretty good given he threw three touchdowns and no interceptions. But in an easy matchup against a poor pass defense with one of the league's best run defenses that was always going to give Derrick Henry troubles — and in a close game where the Titans needed to throw — Tannehill threw for just 193 yards on 33 attempts. His 5.9 YPA was more than a yard lower than Marcus Mariota's season average, and the 246 total yards the Titans put up in the win were the fewest the Bucs have allowed this season and the third fewest the Titans have put up in their eight games. 

Part of that was they played with the lead. Their two touchdown drives in the first quarter were of five yards and six yards, after Tampa Bay conceded the shortest of short fields. But Tampa had cut the game to two points by halftime and took the lead in the third quarter, so it's not like Tennessee coasted to an easy victory.

Add in that Tannehill spread the ball around, and this outcome is a pretty strong data point that the situation isn't actually any better for Tennessee's pass-catchers with Tannehill under center than it was with Mariota. 

Jonnu Smith led the receiving corps with seven targets, six receptions and 78 yards, though he ran routes on just 50% of dropbacks (18 total routes) which suggests that might be difficult to sustain. Anthony Firkser, another tight end, matched Smith's routes and was targeted five times, catching three for 43.

Corey Davis has had the most consistent role all year and saw six targets and an impressive 138 air yards, but caught just two passes for 9 yards. Adam Humphries went 6-3-24, and while his offseason decision was probably more about real-life factors, from a football sense I'm sure he wishes he was in New England right about now. 

A.J. Brown's lack of full-time usage continued; his route percentage fell to 58%, the lowest its been since Week 4, while Tajae Sharpe — the guy blocking him from a full-time role — scored for the second time in as many games. Brown did score and still looks like a great long-term Dynasty option, but I want nothing to do with this passing game after this Week 8 performance.

While I'm almost always negative about Henry, I do recognize he has value. He's been the RB10 in PPR leagues so far! But I noted his good fortune in 1-yard rushing touchdown opportunities early in the season, and that's fallen off as expected. We know his TRAP profile — he has four high-value touches out of 56 total touches over the past three games — is going to struggle in a matchup like this, so it's not worth overreacting to if you have him, and it's not like he was miserable anyway. 

But more to the point, even with strong touchdown totals Henry hasn't eclipsed 18 PPR points in a game since Week 1 when he had the 75-yard touchdown reception on top of a strong rushing day, and he's actually at RB17 in PPR if we look at points per game. He's just... OK. And that's the whole point I've been trying to make about TRAP profiles. An RB2 with a lower floor and lower ceiling than it seems on face value is not someone you'll necessarily miss if you sell high.

Mike Evans was the star for Tampa in their comeback attempt, going 12-11-198-2 on 182 air yards. He extended his league lead in air yards per game, and at 144.4 is now 23.3 per game clear of any other player. That's ridiculous volume, and I've continuously said not to discount Evans just because Chris Godwin has also been good in an offense that can clearly support two No. 1 Fantasy wide receivers. Even with Godwin's relative lack of production this week (8-4-43 with 84 air yards), he's WR2 in PPR points per game, while Evans moved up to WR4. 

There wasn't much else in the Tampa passing game — Cameron Brate's routes rose to a nice 69% of dropbacks, but preseason standout Tanner Hudson was also involved (37% route percentage) in O.J. Howard's absence and Brate only turned in a not-so-nice 6-3-32, while Breshad Perriman racked up 98 air yards on four targets but didn't catch any, a reminder that not even the always hyper-efficient DeSean Jackson was consistently productive in the deep role in this offense while Jameis Winston was under center. Perriman's theoretical value far surpasses his actual potential to do more than have maybe one random boom game.  

Coming out of the bye, Bruce Arians gave us a heavy dose of Peyton Barber early, and Ronald Jones played his third-lowest snap share of the season. Jones put up 52 yards on 11 carries and a reception while Barber hit 28 on 10 carries and a reception. Barber also failed to convert a key fourth-and-1 late, but why would production matter all of a sudden? 

In all seriousness, the loss brings the Bucs to 2-5, and I still believe at some point they'll have to consider the future and give Jones a longer look. It's taking longer than anyone would like, but setting aside the weekly disappointment, it's hard to look at this objectively and argue against Jones' role expanding as the most likely scenario. But for now, he's just a stash, and you should look past his four targets this week because he ran just five routes. 

• Signal: Titans — situation doesn't look any better for pass-catchers with Tannehill under center
• Noise: Ronald Jones — 4 targets (just 5 routes run)

Week 8

Lions 31 - Giants 26

• Snap Notes: Ty Johnson: 40% (-24% vs. Week 7 season high), Tra Carson: 30% (Lions debut), J.D. McKissic: 25% (no change from Week 7), Danny Amendola: 67% (over season average by double digits two weeks in a row), Darius Slayton: 84% (three straight 80%+)
• Key Stat: Saquon Barkley — 10 HVT (previous high this season — 6, in Week 1)

The Lions got off to a quick start with a defensive score on a backward swing pass early, but they were never able to really run away from a Giants team that showed a little fight. 

Tra Carson getting the start over Ty Johnson was a major Week 8 storyline, though Johnson still led the backfield in snaps and routes run. But Carson was the early-down back while Johnson split passing downs work with J.D. McKissic and Paul Perkins also mixed in. 

Let's sort this out, back to front. Perkins played just six snaps, but got three rush attempts. He was essentially the backup early-down guy, in for clear rushing downs. Carson was the lead there, rushing 12 times on 19 snaps. Those two combined for a role very similar to what LeGarrette Blount played last year. 

McKissic was the polar opposite, running routes on 14 of his 16 snaps, catching his three targets and getting a lone rush attempt in his very Theo Riddick-like role. And then Ty Johnson did a little of both, mirroring Kerryon Johnson's hybrid role from last season (before Kerryon got more of an every-down shot this year). Ty Johnson's 25 snaps led the backfield, and his 15 routes were one more than McKissic's. He rushed seven times and was targeted four times, and while his role is the theoretically most valuable, this is cut way too thin on a team that looks likely to throw more going forward anyway. 

Plus, none of the backs were particularly effective, and there's been plenty of talk they may add a back at the trade deadline. It's unfortunate, but in shallow leagues you can cut all of these guys, whereas in deeper formats Johnson is the stash.

Matthew Stafford continues to chuck it downfield, which is great for Fantasy. Kenny Golladay led Week 8 with 188 air yards, and he's the guy in second behind Mike Evans in air yards per game at 121.1. His 8-6-123-2 line was the bounce back we expected. 

Marvin Jones came back to earth with a 5-4-22, while Danny Amendola added to his case for deeper league viability with an 8-8-95 line. He's run his two highest route percentages the past two weeks and with the Lions set to throw more going forward, he's worth a look while healthy. T.J. Hockenson ran routes on just 58% of dropbacks, and while he's had a solid red zone role, he hasn't approached the 73% and 69% route percentages he posted in Weeks 1 and 2 in the five games since. 

Marvin Hall had a 49-yard touchdown, his fourth catch of 30-plus yards on five total receptions this season. He ran routes on just 14% of dropbacks, and just as an aside this type of limited role is almost exactly what he did in Atlanta the past two seasons, where three of his 12 receptions went for 30-plus and he saw sporadic deep shots. That's not Fantasy-viable, but it can be a boost for Stafford. 

Saquon Barkley looked amazing, setting a season high with 10 high-value touches and catching a late touchdown to fill out a 10-8-79-1 receiving line to go with 64 rushing yards. Injuries are notoriously unpredictable, but assuming there are indeed injury-prone players, Barkley's quick recovery and return to top form from his high-ankle sprain has made me consider the inverse, that the dude may just be built differently and can only be stopped by something major — and a high-ankle sprain is supposed to be something major, and yet he recovered from it extremely quickly.

Darius Slayton maintained his downfield role, and this was the week where it paid off the most so far, as he won two jump balls for touchdowns of 22 and 28 yards. He racked up 95 air yards but didn't haul in any of his three other targets. 

Outside Barkley and Slayton, it was Golden Tate going 10-8-85 at a 6.5 aDOT against his former team and Evan Engram going for 7-4-40-1 in a concentrated passing game. Cody Latimer did make a sweet catch on a deflection before getting his feet down on the sideline, as far as random notes go. 

• Signal: Lions RBs — huge committee with specific roles; Danny Amendola — highest route shares of the season in the past two weeks, big target numbers
• Noise: Marvin Hall — just a role player

Week 8

Rams 24 - Bengals 10

• Snap Notes: Todd Gurley: 52% (-9% vs. Week 7 season low), Darrell Henderson: 48% (+14% vs. Week 7 season high), Josh Reynolds: 89% (+56% vs. season high), Brandin Cooks: 5% (concussion), Alex Erickson: 60% (-34% vs. Week 7), Tyler Eifert: 72% (+23% vs. previous season high)
• Key Stat: Auden Tate — 13 targets, 171 air yards (Alex Erickson — 14 targets last week)

Zac Taylor heading to L.A. to face his former boss was an interesting Week 8 matchup, sure to feature tons of 11 personnel. There are, of course, massive talent disparities between the two teams, and the real Rams won easily. 

That said, for the Rams this felt like a game where prior iterations of this team would have hung 40 on a defense of the Bengals' caliber, especially given the breaks that did go their way including Cooper Kupp's 65-yard touchdown on a double-reverse flea flicker where the defensive back was in position to at least make the tackle after the completion but straight up fell down. 

I've been waiting for the Rams offense to pick up, but we're now through eight games. At the halfway point last year, they were averaging 443 total yards and 33 points per game, and just so you know I'm not cherry-picking too much they went on a three-game run from Weeks 9-11 where they went over 450 yards and 35 points in each game. They really only had two major stumbles last year, the game in Chicago in Week 14 and the Super Bowl.

It's not like they are stumbling this year, and to be fair they did put up 470 yards of offense on Cincinnati. And the Bengals never really threatened them. But it's still weird to see them punt in each of their final four possessions rather than build on their lead, and at 385 yards and 27 points per game — and a 5.8 yards per play mark that's 14th in the league and more than a half-yard lower than 2018's full-season mark of 6.4, which was second behind only the Chiefs — we've seen enough to say this is a good, but probably not elite offense anymore. 

But it's still a concentrated one, and that's good for Fantasy. I've talked about both of these offenses a bunch, and how there are essentially three full-time wide receiver roles, and while the Rams have incorporated the tight end more lately, the Bengals hadn't until this week. Last week, I mentioned the structure with regard to Alex Erickson's big Week 7: 

"While it would have been tough to play Erickson even in DFS without confirmation of the role, his 14-8-137 receiving line is mostly a reminder that things will bounce around. The last few weeks, Auden Tate has been seeing plenty of work. Tate was the short straw this week with 6-3-65, but that doesn't necessarily mean those target numbers couldn't just flip next week — all three main receivers played at least 90% snap shares." 

Things did bounce back toward Tate this week, as his 13 targets tied DeAndre Hopkins for the most in the NFL in Week 8, and he racked up 171 air yards, third most on the week. But he was inefficient, posting a 5-65 line that did feature a near-sixth catch for a touchdown at the end of the game before replay reversed it. 

Interestingly, Erickson lost a bunch of snaps, and while he went for an efficient 7-6-97, three catches and 51 yards came on the final drive with the game decided. Instead, Tyler Eifert got a huge usage increase to routes on 78% of dropbacks (previous season high was 61%) to post a 9-6-74 day.

That to me seemed like a thinly veiled trade showcase considering reports they are willing to move Eifert. Though, in typical Bengals fashion, they reportedly want a third-round pick, which won't happen, so he may not get moved and then we'd have to wait and see whether that usage spike sticks. We'll have to see how that distribution gets shaken up if Eifert gets dealt and when A.J. Green returns, but for the short term it seems at least Tate's role is more secure than Erickson's. And there's not much to add about Tyler Boyd's ho-hum 9-6-65 day.

For the Rams, Brandin Cooks left with a concussion after just three snaps, and Josh Reynolds slotted right into one of the three main receiver roles. And Reynolds wound up leading the team with 138 air yards, though not in targets, as Cooper Kupp went off for 10-7-220-1 with 123 air yards. As I noted, he got some help on his long touchdown, but he was still the centerpiece of their passing game once again. 

Reynolds caught just three balls but for 73 and a score, and will be a usable piece if Cooks misses time. Robert Woods and Gerald Everett had the down games, and no one but Kupp and Reynolds had more than three targets or 20 air yards. 

As for the backs, Todd Gurley ceded a bunch of snaps to Darrell Henderson, but it was all in the second half. In fact, Gurley didn't touch the ball after he scored on the first drive of the third quarter. Darrell Henderson looked good, but 10 of his 13 touches came after Gurley exited. Gurley had just 10 carries, but four were green zone looks, and he got home on his fourth try in close. 

Joe Mixon caught another short touchdown, but had just 77 yards on 21 touches, which for him this year was actually good efficiency. He had five high-value touches, just the second time this year he's hit that number, but he does have at least two in every game. Giovani Bernard ran his lowest route percentage of the season by a considerable margin but Mixon didn't actually run a ton more himself, as they must have kept the backs in to block more while getting Eifert out into more routes. So no big positive notes on Mixon other than what looks like a ceiling game for his recent usage, though perhaps the Bengals can fix some things over the bye. 

• Signal: Tyler Eifert — big usage spike, but we need to see if he gets traded and if it sticks if he doesn't
• Noise: Darrell Henderson — 48% snap share (Gurley didn't play most of the third and the whole fourth with the game fairly comfortably in hand)

Week 8

Eagles 31 - Bills 13

• Snap Notes: Jordan Howard: 73% (+10% vs. previous season high), Miles Sanders: 18% (shoulder injury), Devin Singletary: 66% (+24% vs. Week 7), Frank Gore: 29% (matched season low)
• Key Stat: Eagles — 24/41 pass/run ratio

Philadelphia got a win in a windy Buffalo, and they did so by running a ton. I usually get mad at too much running, but high winds are the most significant weather condition for hindering passing games, so this one actually made sense.

Jordan Howard was the lead, while Miles Sanders looked great in his role before leaving in the middle of the third with a shoulder injury and not returning. It doesn't sound serious, and before he left Sanders was again a key part of the passing game, catching all three targets he saw for 44 yard. That included a catch-and-run where he looked shifty while reversing field, plus he broke one of his three rush attempts for a 65-yard touchdown. 

Howard would go on to play a season-high snap share, rushing 23 times for 96 yards and a fourth-quarter touchdown. Third-stringer Boston Scott mixed in after Sanders left and got in on a 5-yard rush. Howard doesn't appear to be going anywhere in a way that would open up increased opportunity for Sanders, but the latter's role still has value in PPR especially as the Eagles have done a good job of making their two-back system work. Howard himself is of course a TRAP back but this was a perfect spot for him to get fed, and he did. 

Carson Wentz threw just 24 times and little of it was downfield. Sanders had -11 air yards, while Howard had -4 on his two targets, and Nelson Agholor had 1 air yard on his four. Wentz did go downfield to Alshon Jeffery a couple of times, and Jeffery overcame the elements with his 6-4-64 line on 71 air yards. Zach Ertz also had 46 air yards on his 4-2-20, and Dallas Goedert had 18 on his 5-3-22-1, and that was the whole target tree as Wentz totaled just 119 air yards for the game.

Likely because they were trailing, the Bills were willing to throw the ball around a little more, but with little success as Josh Allen completed fewer than 50% of his passes and threw for just 169 yards on 34 attempts. He did throw for two scores and add some rushing value, so he wasn't without value, but there wasn't much for the pass-catchers. 

John Brown went for 8-5-54 with 99 air yards, and this was obviously a bad game situation for his role. Cole Beasley caught a 14-yard touchdown and Devin Singletary caught the other on a 28-yard catch-and-run. 

Singletary's snaps jumped in his second game back, and he ran routes on 72% of dropbacks. His role looks eerily similar to Sanders', except Singletary might have more rush attempt upside (though, I would argue, a bit less valuable receiving role given quarterback skill and Sanders' consistent usage down the field). Singletary paired a 6-4-30-1 receiving line with 19 rushing yards on just three carries, while Frank Gore still led the backfield with nine rushes, gaining 34 yards.

• Signal: Devin Singletary — plenty of playing time upside, strong receiving role
• Noise: Eagles — pass volume

Week 8

Jaguars 29 - Jets 15

• Snap Notes: Dede Westbrook: 41% (neck/shoulder injury), Vyncint Smith: 41% (+15% vs. previous season high)
• Key Stat: Leonard Fournette — 13 HVT (Week 8 leader), 6 green zone touches (Week 8 leader)

Sam Darnold took eight sacks and threw three picks as the Jets finished with 213 yards of offense, making Jacksonville's recently vulnerable-looking defense instead look like the unit from their AFC Championship run a few years ago. What's so fascinating about that is the Jets went 12 plays and 98 yards for a touchdown drive the first time they got the ball. Things were looking good! Then six of their next nine drives featured negative total yards. That's insane. 

Jacksonville looked good offensively, as Gardner Minshew threw for 279 and three scores, locking into D.J. Chark for 12 targets and a bounce-back line of 6-79-1 for his No. 1. He also hit Chris Conley — whose air yards and boom-or-bust nature we've discussed all year — on a 70-yard touchdown early, as Conley turned a crossing pattern up field right as Minshew bought some time in the pocket and the result was a wide open look. Conley caught three more balls for 33 more yards.

Josh Oliver saw an uptick in snaps, overtaking Seth DeValve to lead the team's tight ends in routes at 45% of dropbacks. He saw just two targets but is a hold if you nabbed him in deeper formats and is a watch list guy in normal redraft leagues. Dede Westbrook left the game early and then Marqise Lee appeared to suffer another injury, which left Keelan Cole running a season-high 17 routes. But there's room in this passing game for a tight end to step up regardless of whether those guys miss time. 

No WR or TE outside Chark and Conley saw more than two targets, and none are trustworthy with the exception of a healthy Westbrook. Of course, Leonard Fournette played his typical big role, catching all seven targets he saw for 60 yards to go along with 76 rushing yards, nearly all of which came on a 66-yard carry early. He would rush 18 other times for 10 more yards, so it wasn't a great game for him, but that receiving role is just so helpful to providing him a strong floor.

The Jets still featured their trademark highly concentrated offense with one exception — speedster Vyncint Smith worked in for a 42% route share. Smith's 4.43 speed makes him a natural replacement for Robby Anderson if Anderson gets dealt this week. 

Each of Anderson, Demaryius Thomas and Jamison Crowder had modest receiving lines, while tight end Ryan Griffin caught all four targets he saw for 66 yards and two scores. Griffin is going to lose snaps as soon as Chris Herndon is healthy, but he may be doing enough to complicate that situation for a few weeks at least. 

Le'Veon Bell was a bust, but that'll happen in this type of game environment. He has his three lowest high-value touch outputs over the past three weeks since Darnold returned to the lineup, which is surprising considering who was playing QB while Darnold was out. But he also still ran a route on more than three-quarters of Darnold's dropbacks and was targeted five times, and unless the Jets are just the worst offense in the league the rest of the way, he'll start producing. 

The bottom line is the Jets' next six games are against Miami, the Giants, Washington, Oakland, Cincinnati and Miami again. There's not a matchup in there that would qualify as a "bad" Fantasy matchup for a quarterback, running back or wide receiver. (Probably not a tight end either, but tight end stats are always a bit wonky and relative to who you've played.)

Saying there's not a "bad" matchup is doing that schedule a disservice, frankly. Five of those six games are against opponents in the top 10 for quarterback points against, and three in the top three, with only Washington looking average. Four are matchups against opponents in the top five of running back points against, with the Giants a fifth plus matchup as the 11th-easiest defense for backs to face and the Raiders coming in at 15th. 

It's not unreasonable to think the Jets will start putting up Fantasy points, because with their highly-concentrated offense they just need to be better than awful. Count on Bell to play well for the next month and a half, and then also some combination of Anderson (if he's not traded), Crowder and possibly Herndon or Thomas (or even Smith if Anderson is traded). 

• Signal: Josh Oliver — routes trending up
• Noise: Jets — not buying their offensive woes can stay this bad against weaker opponents; Ryan Griffin — not likely to maintain anything close to this role when Herndon is back; Chris Conley — 100 and a score is always nice on the stat sheet, but just remember he's a big play or bust kind of receiver

Week 8

Seahawks 27 - Falcons 20

• Snap Notes: Chris Carson: 69% (-20% vs. Week 7 season high), Rashaad Penny: 30% (highest since Week 2), D.K. Metcalf: 92% (+4% vs. previous season high), David Moore: 49% (+7% vs. Week 7 season high), Jaron Brown: 28% (-33% vs. season average), Devonta Freeman: 80% (+14% vs. season average), Russell Gage: 59% (+37% vs. previous season high)
• Key Stat: Seahawks — 20/33 pass/run ratio

The Seahawks once again decided to play a close game against an inferior opponent by refusing to let their MVP candidate quarterback pull away. Yes, they got a win, and they didn't expose Russell Wilson to too many hits and all of that. But they've also let games get away from them this way (see: the Saints game), and more importantly it's a crime against entertaining football and Fantasy production.

Wilson completed 14-of-20 passes for 182 yards and two scores, a 131.7 quarterback rating. Tyler Lockett had 6-6-100 including a slick one-handed catch, so he accounted for more than half the team's receiving yardage. 

D.K. Metcalf played a big snap share and scored two short touchdowns, but both were plays where the Falcons just straight up didn't guard him. One was a quick curl from the slot the announcers called a "gift," and the other was a drag where there must have been mix up. The Falcons, of course, are very bad in the secondary, which makes it all the more confusing why Seattle threw only 20 passes, but that's neither here nor there. The point is this type of thing won't happen for Metcalf most weeks, and he finished with a line of just 5-3-13-2 so it can't really be thought of as a breakout of some kind, although the low volume is partially to blame and five targets and two scores on 20 attempts isn't nothing. 

And that was pretty much it for the Seahawks passing stats. David Moore worked ahead of Jaron Brown and saw four targets. He started the season injured but largely played ahead of Moore in 2018, so there could have been a passing of the No. 3 torch there. Also, Luke Willson ran substantially more routes than Jacob Hollister, reversing last week's trend and rendering none of the tight ends here worth bothering over (unless, I guess, Ed Dickson returns to a substantial role). Of course, Will Dissly's injury vacated plenty of production, and the best guess is Metcalf is the top bet for most of that, followed by the tight ends splitting some of it. 

Rashaad Penny is another player who has been discussed as a trade candidate, and he worked in more in Week 8 than he had since Week 2. Chris Carson still carried 20 times for 90 yards and a score and is locked into his role. 

On Atlanta's side, Matt Schaub threw for 460 yards on 52 attempts, which is incredible if you watched him play at all this preseason. The biggest takeaway there for me was just further confirmation of Matt Ryan's upside when healthy because this Falcons team can't stop anyone defensively and doesn't run the ball real well, giving them monster passing upside. 

With Mohamed Sanu no longer around, the targets didn't concentrate down to three people as much as Russell Gage stepped into a bigger role. Gage had 9-7-58 as the second most-targeted Falcon behind Julio Jones' 12-10-152. While there should be plenty of volume most weeks, there won't always be 52 attempts or 460 yards, so that's something to monitor in relation to Austin Hooper's 7-6-65-1 (with yet another late-game touchdown) and Calvin Ridley's 7-4-70 (with a 2-point conversion). Seven targets each on 52 attempts are not particularly impressive shares, and yet they both still have pathways to a ton of targets the rest of the year so it's certainly nothing to be panic trading them over. 

Devonta Freeman caught all eight targets he saw, and while he's struggled to a 3.4 YPC running the ball this year, his receiving role continues to provide value. Brian Hill filled in for Ito Smith and looked good on a 23-yard touchdown, but didn't play enough to be anything more than someone to monitor for now.  

• Signal: Falcons — should continue throwing a ton; Russell Gage — in a significant role post-Sanu
• Noise: Falcons — won't throw 52 times for 460 yards every week

Week 8

Chargers 17 - Bears 16

• Snap Notes: Keenan Allen: 69% (-20% vs. season average), Andre Patton: 82% (+46% vs. previous season high), David Montgomery: 73% (+4% vs. previous season high), Tarik Cohen: 21% (-16% vs. previous season low), Anthony Miller: 51% (lowest since Week 3)
• Key Stat: Chargers — 42 offensive plays (Bears — 77)

The Chargers and Bears had one of the more annoying endings to a football game for anyone in favor of smarter decision-making in the NFL. After the Bears punted in Charger territory with just over two minutes left and down a point, Philip Rivers completed an 11-yard pass to Hunter Henry on a third-and-12 to set up a fourth and about a foot. While the Chargers were at their own 24, the Bears had just one timeout, and with 1:45 to go a first down would have all but ended the game. 

It's easy to look at the potential downside of turning the ball over there, just like the potential downside to the Bears going for it on their fourth-and-16, but there are potential downsides to punting, too. For the Bears, punting initially meant they were at risk of never getting the ball back, and they probably shouldn't have. For the Chargers, punting from that deep in their own territory was going to make it difficult to cover and keep the Bears out of good starting position, and they ultimately started at their 35 and got back to where the Chargers punted from with plenty of time to spare. 

And then the Bears made the decision to just kneel to not risk losing yardage on a negative play or sack, after that led to their previous fourth-and-16. It was one fear-based decision after another, and in the end Eddy Pineiro pulled his 41-yard attempt wide left, giving the Chargers the win. 

There was plenty of action before those final moments, a lot of which also fell into the category of who wanted to lose more. Keenan Allen gutted out a hamstring injury but didn't play a full set of snaps. He still went for 10-7-53, but let a potential 24-yard touchdown go through his hands in the end zone on a bit of an awkward play where the ball was a little underthrown and looked like it might get deflected. 

That wasn't as bad as teammate Mike Williams, who let a potential 37-yard touchdown through his hands a bit earlier. A couple of plays later, he had a bad drop on a slant, so his 6-3-69 line on 112 air yards also left points on the field. 

The backs each saw three targets and caught two, with Austin Ekeler finding the end zone through the air and Melvin Gordon scoring on a 19-yard run. Hunter Henry also saw six targets, turning in a 4-47 line. None of those were particularly strong outputs, but Rivers threw just 29 passes in a game where the Chargers ran just 42 offensive plays and the Bears ran 77. The Chargers simply did not possess the ball much.

So how did the Bears even wind up in a position down one point late? Good question, and it was their green zone offense to blame. Three times in the first half they found themselves inside the 10, and all three times they settled for field goals. The first was after a Rivers interception was returned to the 4-yard line. The Bears called a tip-pass to Cordarrelle Patterson on jet motion on the first play, then threw to two different tight ends.

The next time, they worked their way all the way down the field only to run with Tarik Cohen from the 9, throw once (incomplete intended for Allen Robinson) and then run to Cohen again from the 9 on third down. 

The third time down they finally gave David Montgomery a rush attempt, but he got stuffed. Then a quick-hitter to Patterson. Then another attempt for Robinson that drew a pass interference on third down and got them down to the 1. With 29 seconds in the half, they threw incomplete, then ran once with 25 seconds left, were disorganized, and spiked the ball on third down with 1 second left in the half before kicking the field goal. 

It was a mess. In the second half, a 31-yard completion to Allen Robinson set up a first-and-goal from the 4, and they gave to Montgomery for a touchdown on first down, just his third attempt in all those green zone plays. 

Montgomery wound up having a big game, including a 55-yard run where he was caught from behind a bit. He rushed 27 times for 135 yards and that score, plus added four catches for 12 yards, giving him a season-high seven high-value touches. 

Montgomery also played a season-high snap share and ran more than double the routes of Tarik Cohen, who played a season low and gained just 46 yards on seven touches. It was an obviously positive outcome for Montgomery's value, but the Bears also ran far more snaps than is typical for them and gained 90 more yards than their previous season high. One could argue that's because they utilized Montgomery more, but whether they can repeat that type of output remains to be seen. 

There were few big plays in the passing game, with Robinson settling for a 7-5-62 line, Taylor Gabriel going 6-4-53 and Anthony Miller catching all three of his targets for 67 as the main three receivers. Patterson only had three touches, only adding to the confusion of why the Bears would feature a home run threat in the short area of the field where there is less space to maneuver.

• Signal: David Montgomery — huge Week 8 role, Bears spoke of wanting to find an identity; Bears — somehow didn't seem to understand what that identity entailed in the green zone
• Noise: Chargers — 42 plays (and the subsequent low touch counts for several players, most notably the two backs)

Week 8

Colts 15 - Broncos 13

• Snap Notes: Zach Pascal 92% (+23% vs. previous season high), Fred Brown: 63% (+48% vs. previous season high), DaeSean Hamilton: 62% (-1% vs. season average)
• Key Stat: Noah Fant — 8 targets

The Colts and Broncos played a vaguely similar game as the Bears and Chargers, with a late 51-yard field goal from Adam Vinatieri deciding it, his third on the day of at least 45 yards. 

Though the Colts trailed pretty much throughout, they went back to their run-heavy ways after having given Jacoby Brissett a bit more freedom in recent weeks. Brissett threw just 25 times, completing 15 for 202 yards, while Indianapolis ran 31 times. It worked in part because the Broncos, after pushing a 6-3 halftime lead to 13-3 on their first second-half drive, punted on each of their next five possessions. 

Marlon Mack ran 19 times for 76 yards and a score, and still ran more routes than Nyheim Hines despite seeing just one target to Hines' three. T.Y. Hilton caught just two passes but for 54 yards, seeing 90 air yards on his six targets. The volume was fine all things considered and the down game can mostly be chalked up to the offense's run lean, something we've been concerned about for some time. 

Typically behind him we've seen a rotation, but this week Zach Pascal played a full set of snaps as the No. 2 and Chester Rogers played close to that as the clear No. 3. Both were targeted just twice, though, each catching one pass. Jack Doyle and Eric Ebron combined for nine targets and seven receptions, but split it down the middle, with Doyle leading this week after Ebron scored a week ago. There's not much reason to chase the lower-level passing-game options in this offense.

The same is likely going to prove true in Denver. With Emmanuel Sanders gone, Courtland Sutton dominated the air yards with 84 on six targets, but caught just three balls for 72 yards. They went to him early, and he had two near misses on diving attempts, but he was also the product of a slow overall game as the Broncos were conservative with the lead in the second half. 

Former undrafted free agent Fred Brown started opposite him. Brown doesn't have much of a college resume, and actually last played at Mississippi State in 2015 before being dismissed from the team before his senior season. He's bounced around practice squads for the Colts and Rams before landing with the Broncos, and made his NFL debut this year. In other words, he's a long shot to be a Fantasy asset, as his two targets may have suggested. 

But his emergence also told the story of an unchanged role for DaeSean Hamilton, whose snaps and routes hardly changed despite Sanders' absence. He had one catchless target and is droppable. We also saw some of Diontae Spencer, but none of these guys behind Sutton is likely to make much noise, especially now that Joe Flacco will miss the Broncos' next game and could be out an extended period.

The one guy who did see the uptick was Noah Fant, who caught 5-of-8 targets for 26 yards and brought in a pass in the back of the end zone but landed out of bounds. He certainly has some potential to be Fantasy-viable at a thin position as he ran routes on 75% of dropbacks, right in line with the substantial passing-game usage we've seen all season. But even with the available targets, Sutton and Fant will now have to overcome potentially worse quarterback play (although it's hard to be much worse than Flacco's 5.4 YPA in Week 8).

The backs split things pretty evenly, though their roles flipped a bit. Royce Freeman got all three green zone touches, including a 4-yard touchdown run, while they split the routes evenly which was a departure from Freeman typically running more routes. It was Phillip Lindsay's highest route percentage since Week 1 and Freeman's lowest since Week 2, and Lindsay saw five targets to Freeman's two. Freeman did also battle a shoulder injury but he played through it.  

Unfortunately, Flacco's penchant for checking down was a big part of their elevated target rates, and it remains to be seen how much of that carries over. With a depleted pass-catching group, it's certainly possible that sticks. 

• Signal: Noah Fant — filled the Emmanuel Sanders void more than any of the wide receivers; DaeSean Hamilton — role unchanged post-Sanders; Zach Pascal — snap share, routes rose substantially to full-time role
• Noise: Zach Pascal — 2 targets (snaps, routes tell a story of an expanding role, while the team volume was down and was to blame for low target totals across the board)

Week 8

49ers 51 - Panthers 13

• Snap Notes: Emmanuel Sanders: 82% (49ers debut), Dante Pettis: 30% (-62% from Week 7 season high)
• Key Stat: 49ers — 38 rush attempts, 232 rush yards, 5 rush TD (Panthers — 230 total yards)

With how well they play defense, when San Francisco is able to run the ball they can suffocate the Fantasy value out of the rest of a game. There were 64 points scored in this one and yet not really all that much Fantasy scoring; the teams combined for just 256 net passing yards. 

Let's start with the obvious: Tevin Coleman was awesome. He scored on two of his four green zone touches, but also broke off two longer touchdown runs to finish with over 100 total yards and four scores on just 13 touches. 

But his usage was also a bit odd. Matt Breida started and out-touched Coleman 12-to-6 in the first half. Then Breida suffered an ankle injury and didn't record a second-half touch, and suddenly Coleman got seven touches in the third alone before he checked out as both teams cycled in backups. It's always a bit fluky to score four touchdowns, but three first-half scores on just six first-half touches stands out. In fairness, if Coleman hadn't kept scoring from everywhere, he probably would have racked up more touches, and overvaluing limited opportunity when the chief cause is exceptional efficiency is a silly mistake. 

On the flip side, Coleman ran routes on a season-high 62% of dropbacks, and his route percentage has been rising. Along with his already heavy green zone role it means he has the potential for plenty of high-value touches. Plus, it's very clear Kyle Shanahan's scheme means San Francisco can run the ball effectively, wants to run the ball a lot, and has the defense to run the ball a lot, so it's hard to bench any back seeing significant work in this offense.

With Breida ailing, Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson both got additional work, while Deebo Samuel also worked into the running game. Mostert played well ahead of Wilson, who only touched the ball twice, and both times after Coleman exited. Mostert had a strong fourth quarter including a 41-yard score to finish with a 9-60-1 rushing line. Samuel rushed twice in the third quarter for 29 yards and a score. They poured on the rushing points. 

Meanwhile, Jimmy Garoppolo threw just 22 passes, recording 175 yards and two scores. Emmanuel Sanders played as the No. 1 in his first game with the 49ers, scoring on his first drive with the team and finishing with a 5-4-25-1 line that isn't great on paper but is better considering the overall team volume. George Kittle had yet another touchdown called back by an offensive pass interference, going 7-6-86 and continuing to look for all the world like a difference-maker with some big catches. Every week is the same note on him: He's been consistent but hasn't hit his ceiling, but it's coming. 

Outside of Kittle and Sanders, Deebo Samuel caught three passes for 19 yards and no other downfield option had more than one catch. Dante Pettis gave up a ton of snaps with Sanders in the fold. 

As he sometimes is, Christian McCaffrey was all the Panthers had going for them. He had a 40-yard touchdown run but also racked up 77 rushing yards on his other 13 carries for an impressive 14-117-1 line. He caught four of five targets for 38 yards. 

The Panthers otherwise struggled, and by the fourth quarter they'd removed McCaffrey and several other players. Both Reggie Bonnafon and Jordan Scarlett played, but Scarlett's four rushes came consecutively on the final drive on his only four snaps and Bonnafon was still the clear No. 2. Greg Olsen gave up some late snaps to Ian Thomas and with Jarius Wright banged up the Panthers cycled in DeAndrew White and Brandon Zylstra, but all of that was script-related. 

Kyle Allen went 19-of-37 for just 158 yards overall, throwing three picks and no touchdowns. Curtis Samuel got several downfield looks and led the team with 11 targets and 159 air yards but it was mostly empty volume against this defense as his 4-46 receiving line indicates. D.J. Moore had nine targets and 103 air yards and caught just five for 38 yards. Greg Olsen was targeted just twice but ran routes on 70% of dropbacks, a healthy rate. 

It was a brutal matchup and the Panthers' passing production looked like it. 

• Signal: Matt Breida — started, out-touched Coleman before getting injured; Emmanuel Sanders — full set of snaps and routes
• Noise: George Kittle — one touchdown on 49 targets this season; Panthers/49ers — low snap shares as backups played in the fourth quarter

Week 8

Patriots 27 - Browns 13

• Snap Notes: Mohamed Sanu: 54% (Patriots debut), Sony Michel: 41% (even with season average), James White: 41% (-2% vs. season average), Rex Burkhead: 19% (first game since Week 4), Nick Chubb: 63% (+2% vs. season low), Dontrell Hilliard: 38% (+1% vs. previous season high), Rashard Higgins: 21% (first snaps since Week 1), Ricky Seals-Jones: 46% (-24 vs. Week 6 season high)
• Key Stat: Julian Edelman — 11 targets

The Patriots got a win basically the same way they've been winning all year. Their defense scored a touchdown, got three first-half turnovers and recorded five sacks. They got out in front and then coasted a bit, but while their offense doesn't look otherworldly, it's more than enough most weeks when the defense is this good.

Mohamed Sanu made his debut and ran routes on 67% of dropbacks, seeing five targets. It was a Julian Edelman game, with the veteran slot receiver going 11-8-78-2. We should see a lot of Edelman the rest of the way. 

Sony Michel rushed 21 times but for just 74 yards and wasn't targeted, while James White got loose for a 59-yard reception and finished with 75 receiving yards on his four catches. Rex Burkhead played sparingly in his return. All of that is very on brand for the Patriots backfield.

Phillip Dorsett went 6-3-43 with 68 air yards while running routes on 100% of dropbacks is a full-time player with plenty of splash potential, at least in the short term. I still think N'Keal Harry has a chance to work into a role, and if he did he'd cut into Dorsett's snaps. 

Other than the three receivers and White, no one else had more than one catch, though Ben Watson was involved again and did haul in a 25-yard reception. Other than Sanu's debut, there's almost nothing new here. 

Cleveland's offense deserves a little credit coming out of their bye — they put up 310 total yards, which isn't great but was the second most the Patriots have conceded in a game this year. Baker Mayfield threw for just 194 yards, and outside Jarvis Landry's 10-5-65 and Odell Beckham's 7-5-52 there wasn't much production in the passing game, but they did find rhythm at times outside their 13 penalties and three turnovers — the turnovers cut a quarter of their drives short and both factors helped limit them to just 58 offensive plays.

That's not to discount the turnovers, but two were Nick Chubb fumbles, one being kicked out by his own flipping lineman and the other being stripped from behind after a long run, both of which seemed a bit unlucky. Chubb ran routes on just 32% of dropbacks, a season low and only the second time he's been below a 50% route percentage. With the two early fumbles and the tough road matchup, this might have just been a rest situation. But Kareem Hunt isn't far from returning, and Dontrell Hilliard running his highest route percentage of the year and seeing four of the five running back targets isn't a great sign for the concerns that Chubb could start to lose some work. Chubb still broke off a 44-yard run and rushed for 131 yards on 20 carries overall, and it seems likely he'll retain his green zone role in any scenario, but ceding passing downs work is never a good thing for RB value.

Rashard Higgins finally got his first snaps since Week 1, but Antonio Callaway remained the clear No. 3. Ricky Seals-Jones ceded a bunch of snaps after looking like he might be developing some deep-league value. It was fellow tight end Demetrius Harris who caught the touchdown, but he ran routes on just 14% of dropbacks. There are no other startable passing game options for the Browns right now outside Beckham and Landry.

• Signal: Mohamed Sanu — worked in as a nearly full-time player in his first game, should see an expanded role going forward
• Noise: Nick Chubb — I'm chalking up his lack of routes to a one-week blip for now, but it bears monitoring

Week 8

Texans 27 - Raiders 24

• Snap Notes: Kenny Stills: 96% (+2% vs. Week 7 season high), DeAndre Carter: 57% (+55% vs. previous season high), Keke Coutee: 0% (active, didn't play), Tyrell Williams: 89% (return from injury), Zay Jones: 39% (Oakland debut)
• Key Stat: DeAndre Hopkins — 0.82 WOPR in past two games (rest of season — 0.63; league leader for the season — 0.73)

In their first game without Will Fuller, the Texans looked mostly fine, and we saw a continuation of last week where DeAndre Hopkins dominated targets. Hopkins saw a full third of Deshaun Watson's pass attempts, going 13-11-109, while Kenny Stills played a full snap share in Fuller's place but was targeted just five times and for just 25 air yards.

DeAndre Carter's role was interesting, as he played ahead of Keke Coutee and got the deep targets, racking up 49 air yards on his three targets. Early this year, Stills seemed to be limiting Fuller's downfield looks somewhat, and right when Stills seems to be the main option for deep shots we have Carter taking some of that from Stills. 

The tight ends also got more involved, with Darren Fells running a route on a season-high 72% of dropbacks. His route percentage had been in the fifties in Weeks 3 and 4 and the sixties in Weeks 5 and 6 but dipped to 45% in Week 7, so this was a great sign for his value, as was his 6-6-58-2 line. Jordan Akins also ran routes on 52% of dropbacks, but that was actually a downturn for him. He caught 2-of-5 targets for 11 yards. 

Carlos Hyde did his TRAP thing with a 19-83 rushing line but just one catchless target. He did run routes on 41% of dropbacks but has just six catches all season. Duke Johnson caught his second touchdown in three games but he has just 17 receptions on the season. While he's been targeted in close several times this season, his receiving role isn't strong enough overall to chase touchdowns. He's mostly just a handcuff right now, maybe a low-ceiling deep-league PPR option.

With Tyrell Williams back and playing a full set of snaps for Oakland, their receiving corps is rounding into form. Williams led the team with 137 air yards on his six targets, catching three for 91 and a score, and is right back to being an every-week WR2 or WR3. Darren Waller scored but had an inefficient day overall, with several near-misses leaving him with just two catches for 11 yards despite a team-high 11 targets. The volume remains consistent.  

The Hunter Renfrow had his biggest game of the year, scoring an early 65-yard touchdown on a short catch with plenty of yards after the catch. He finished 4-4-88-1 but is still the third option at best in this passing game. Zay Jones made his debut with Oakland and worked in, cutting into Trevor Davis' role. Expect Jones to see his role expand as the second outside receiver with Renfrow manning the slot.

Josh Jacobs went 15-66 with two catches, and rain a fairly typical route share, although Jalen Richard got more involved in the passing game with routes on 47% of dropbacks. Jacobs' lack of production was mostly due to the Raiders preferring to attack the Texans through the air, though. 

• Signal: DeAndre Hopkins — volume is coming on strong; DeAndre Carter — played ahead of Coutee, got downfield looks
• Noise: Hunter Renfrow — 74 YAC out of 88 receiving yards

Week 8

Packers 31 - Chiefs 24

• Snap Notes: Allen Lazard: 67% (-18% vs. season high Week 7), Geronimo Allison: 64% (+7% vs. Week 7), Marquez Valdes-Scantling: 62% (+29% vs. Week 7), Jake Kumerow: 51% (lowest since Week 4), Aaron Jones: 64% (+4% vs. season average), Jamaal Williams: 46% (+5% vs. season average), Sammy Watkins: 86% (return from injury), Mecole Hardman: 15% (-35% vs. previous season low), Damien Williams: 42%, LeSean McCoy: 39%, Darrel Williams: 15%
• Key Stat: Aaron Jones — 7 HVT (Jamaal Williams — 4 HVT)

Sunday night brought us a great game before it finished with a whimper. The Packers got out to a 14-0 early lead and looked like they might run away with it in Kansas City, but Andy Reid had a whole bag of tricks, using cleverly designed motions and misdirections to script an effective offense for Matt Moore to succeed in. It was a coaching masterclass, until he showed us his weaknesses as well, punting from his own 40 on a fourth-and-3 with just over five minutes remaining and trailing by 7. 

That's not the worst decision in the world, but the Chiefs' defense struggled all night, as they have all year, and it was their offense that had them in the game. Reid also botched a timeout before the two-minute warning, and the Chiefs never got the ball back as the Packers fairly easily converted three first downs to run out the game.

Aaron Jones continued to be a focal point of the Packers offense, notably in the passing game. I wrote this last week: 

"They also notably got him out in another downfield route and he made a nice catch for an early 21-yard touchdown reception, a week after dropping a wide open touchdown on a similar play. 

That usage is significant, because while running back air yards are few and far between and can generally be ignored, there is value in the downfield opportunities that do arise because the backs are often matched up on a linebacker and it's a look teams like to exploit... We can't bank on these targets every week, but just seeing that potential in an offense is a positive sign for a running back, and it translated for Jones."

The Packers got that look again in Week 8, and Jones caught a 50-yard pass that was initially ruled a touchdown but was overturned when replay showed he stepped out. He then later caught a 67-yard touchdown on a quick hit when he was again split out wide, and he'd caught a 4-yard touchdown in the first quarter — his 8-7-159-2 receiving line was something any WR would salivate over, and yet he also added 67 rushing yards. 

There's more to be said about these downfield running back passes, specifically how frequently they seem to hit. I'll try to look at that efficiency more this week because it's been a big source of Fantasy points for the backs who get these looks.

But Jones didn't soak up all the production, as Jamaal Williams also scored twice, once on a shorter reception and once on a rush attempt. The Packers got the two backs on the field together at times, and while Williams totaled just 36 yards on his 10 touches he retains flex appeal behind Jones given he's getting out in about the same number of routes each week and the Packers are generating a ton of high-value touches overall. 

The backs soaked up more than half of Aaron Rodgers' 305 yards and all three of his touchdowns, which meant little production from the receivers and tight ends. Jake Kumerow led the team with 71 air yards and went 4-2-48, but he lost snaps this week as the Packers rotated more and ran routes on just 46% of dropbacks. Allen Lazard went 5-5-42 with just 12 air yards, and while he lost some snaps as well, he led the team in routes for the second straight week. 

The gainers were Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Geronimo Allison as they were one week healthier, but both caught just one pass and they combined for just five targets between them. Jimmy Graham also disappointed with a 5-3-20 line. This will be a difficult situation to handicap going forward, but with Davante Adams due back eventually and Lazard looking like he might have staying power, we should see more shuffling. 

Matt Moore played an effective game, but Adam Schefter noted at halftime of Monday Night Football that Patrick Mahomes could be back as soon as Week 9. He practiced last week and was quoted saying he would have played if it was a playoff game, so that will obviously be a huge story this week. The Chiefs seem concerned they've lost three of four and have fallen to 5-3. 

The downfield passing game was as you'd expect with Sammy Watkins making his return — Tyreek Hill led with nine targets and 121 air yards, turning in a 6-76 line, Travis Kelce went 8-4-63-1, and Watkins went 8-5-45. Demarcus Robinson was the primary third receiver but fell down the target totem pole (2-2-6 receiving line) while Mecole Hardman returned to a limited snaps role but is a big-play threat and broke off a 30-yard touchdown and another 25-yard play to 2-2-55-1 despite just nine snaps overall.

The running backs are what we need to dive into. LeSean McCoy was the lead back throughout the majority of the game, rushing nine times for 40 yards and catching four passes for 23. Darrel Williams operated as the No. 2 and we even saw some of Darwin Thompson, with Damien Williams seemingly banished to the deeper part of the depth chart. 

And then McCoy lost a fumble with 1:24 left in the third quarter and didn't touch the ball again. And from there on, Damien Williams, not Darrel, played almost every snap, racking up all seven of his rush attempts for 30 yards and a score in the fourth quarter. 

I've maintained Damien Williams is a stash and even a low-cost buy because the upside inherent in the lead back role in this offense. And while McCoy has been the lead back most of the season — and has been efficient — he hasn't had the upside we saw from Damien Williams at the end of 2018. 

Ultimately I have no idea what will happen going forward, and that was only McCoy's second fumble this year, but Damien Williams did look good late and is still a great fit for this offense. Literally nothing would surprise me in terms of how this backfield might play out in Week 9, including Thompson's light role being a precursor to him becoming a factor or Darrel Williams suddenly being a key player again. But if I had to guess, I kind of think we'll see Damien Williams as the lead next week (with McCoy still involved), which might be wish-casting because, again, for three quarters Damien looked like he didn't have a role at all.

• Signal: Packers RBs — both are viable; Allen Lazard — appears to have some staying power
• Noise: Mecole Hardman — just nine snaps with Watkins back, don't chase the touchdown; Packers receiving corps — tough to know what will happen short term or long term when Davante Adams comes back; Chiefs RBs — complete unknown at this point

Week 8

Steelers 27 - Dolphins 14

• Snap Notes: James Conner: 83% (+4% vs. previous season high, left with shoulder injury late), James Washington: 47% (missed Week 6), Diontae Johnson: 44% (-25% vs. Week 6, lowest since Week 1), Mark Walton: 87% (+35% vs. Week 7 season high)
• Key Stat: Mark Walton — 87% snap share, six targets

The Steelers fell behind early to the Dolphins, but came roaring back. Mason Rudolph really struggled, but he did make some decent plays later in the game. 

James Conner was the star with a 23-145-1 rushing line and three catches, but he suffered a shoulder injury late and there appears to be some fear it could be serious. Meanwhile, with Jaylen Samuels out, his backup was Benny Snell, though Snell left the game with an injury early. Samuels was close to playing this week and should be back for Week 9, at which point he might be the only show in town. We saw his upside in such a role late in 2018, and while the offense is now worse, he's still a great receiver and capable of a big dual workload.

Rudolph wound up throwing 36 passes for 251 yards in this one. I wrote this after Week 6, before the Steelers' bye: 

"But more importantly, you don't have the age-adjusted production Smith-Schuster did in college and then come into the NFL and start producing at 20 years old and produce consistently for two years at every chance you get and not be a special player. We often fit narratives to recent production, and there's a lot of confirmation bias on the offseason concerns about Smith-Schuster being capable of being a No. 1 without Antonio Brown right now, and the latest I've seen is Smith-Schuster can't beat man coverage. 

But some of the game situations the Steelers have been in are situations even established elite talents wouldn't produce in. Smith-Schuster's two games with limited production were a wildcat heavy game and this one, both in prime time. Among quarterbacks who have started and played the full game, Rudolph's 95 air yards in Week 4 and Hodges' 91 in Week 6 are the third and second fewest this season, behind only Kirk Cousins' ridiculous 10-attempt game in Week 1.  

Meanwhile, Smith-Schuster's actually been pretty solid with what he's had to work with, having put up between 75 and 85 yards in each of the other four games; he's seen seven or eight targets in each compared to four in each of Week 4 and Week 6. He's averaging an elite 8.9 yards per target for a guy with a low aDOT. You buy elite talents in bad situations because situation can turn around faster than we want to believe — we just saw it pay off for Stefon Diggs this week. 

That also probably makes Diontae Johnson worth a low-cost buy or add, because he's continued to be the clear second downfield option here."

I'm not really trying to take a victory lap here because there should still be concern if Rudolph struggled like this against the Dolphins. But based on takes I am still seeing, it's important to reiterate that a) Smith-Schuster is very good and b) the Steelers have played two weird games that probably aren't predictive and have held down their passing numbers overall. 

The big play on Smith-Schuster's 9-5-103-1 day that featured 165 air yards was him rising up and winning against man coverage on a downfield target for a 26-yard touchdown.  

Diontae Johnson gave up a few snaps and routes as James Washington returned to a pretty solid role after missing Week 6 and both Johnny Holton and Donte Moncrief rotated in. Johnson still ran routes on 66% of dropbacks so he was involved, but that was his lowest percentage since Week 2. We'd like to see that tick back up next week because he looks the part, and Washington, who caught just one of his six targets, doesn't. And yet, Johnson's 7-5-84-1 line did benefit from a silly defensive call before half that gave him about as easy a 45-yard touchdown as a receiver can get, so he'll be hard to trust next week.

With Kenyan Drake traded, Mark Walton played a whopping 87% snap share. The Dolphins are bad, and his opportunity will be capped, but any back playing over 80% of snaps is a Fantasy option; those are just the rules. He went 11-35 on the ground and caught just three of his six targets for 19 yards, plus he lost a fumble, so we'll have to see if he retains such a big role going forward. But with the Jets on deck for Week 9, Walton's worth a shot where you need running back help. 

Ryan Fitzpatrick was Ryan Fitzpatrick, which was entertaining at least. DeVante Parker led the Dolphins with a 8-6-59 line while Preston Williams went 7-4-42. They are the only full-time wide receivers in the offense and only ones with Fantasy appeal, albeit limited. 

Albert Wilson and Allen Hurns both scored, but they ran routes on 40% and 36% of dropbacks as Jakeem Grant also worked in and the Dolphins continued using two tight end sets at times. Both Grant and Mike Gesicki saw some air yards on their three targets each, but these four rotational passing-game options all combined for just nine targets. 

• Signal: Mark Walton — huge share of backfield; Diontae Johnson — routes dipped a bit
• Noise: Albert Wilson/Allen Hurns — both scored, both ran routes on fewer than 50% of dropbacks

So who should you sit and start this week? And which surprising quarterback could lead you to victory? Visit SportsLine now to get Week 9 rankings for every position, plus see which QB is going to come out of nowhere to crack the top 10, all from the model that out-performed experts big time last season.