Welcome to Stealing Signals, your look at snaps, touches, game flow, efficiency and everything in between. Stealing Signals is a game-by-game breakdown of everything you saw in your Fantasy box score, identifying what is signal and what is noise to help you make decisions for future weeks.
49ers 28 - Cardinals 25
Snap Notes: Tevin Coleman: 55% (+9% vs. season average), Matt Breida: 39% (+5% vs. season average), Emmanuel Sanders: 95% (+13% vs. Week 8 49ers debut), Deebo Samuel: 66% (+7% vs. season average), Dante Pettis: 30% (lowest since Week 1), Kenyan Drake: 84% (Cardinals debut), Maxx Williams: 74% (+16% vs. previous season high), Andy Isabella: 23% (+6% vs. previous season high, fifth highest among ARI WR)
Key Stat: Emmanuel Sanders — 24% target share, 39% air yards share in two games with San Francisco
It would have been easy to expect a dull game Thursday night with the 49ers coming into Arizona as double-digit favorites led by one of the league's best defenses and running games. But we got plenty of Fantasy production instead, and a pretty exciting game where the 49ers outlasted the Cardinals with three straight third-down conversions to milk out the final five minutes after Arizona had cut the lead to three. San Francisco was 11-for-17 on third-down conversions in the game, extending drives in a way that limited overall possessions in the game and allowed them to finish with a substantial play advantage over Arizona, running 69 plays to Arizona's 50.
Apart from maybe George Kittle, Tevin Coleman came into the game with perhaps the highest Fantasy expectations of anyone. He finished with a disappointing 12-23 rushing line plus two catches on four targets for 13 yards. Coleman was never going to be able to repeat his four-touchdown performance on just 13 touches, but his role in Week 9 was fine, including two green zone touches, one of which went for a touchdown that was called back by holding. He also had a bad drop in the fourth quarter and a screen that was well set up and would have gone for a big play.
Matt Breida is still very involved, and he looked good playing through an ankle injury, rushing 15 times for 78 yards and catching two balls for 14 more. The key here is the 49ers entered Week 9 producing more RB Fantasy points as a team than any other offense, so while they both may not hit every week, there's plenty of value in a shared backfield when the scheme and line set up for rushing success and they also utilize the backs in the passing game.
Kittle was very good despite an early knee injury, scoring for just the second time this season (he's had three other touchdowns called back by penalty) and then later getting tackled at the half-yard-line to continue his lack of touchdown luck even in a game where he did find the end zone. His 8-6-79-1 line was solid, but even better days are ahead, assuming health. His role and ability have been obvious all season.
Emmanuel Sanders backed up a strong share of the passing volume in his first game with the team by again being the featured wide receiver, going 9-7-112-1. He's now accounted for a healthy 24% of targets and 39% of the air yards in his two games with the team. With Kittle at 25% targets in those two games, we have a pretty clear top two options that make it tough to trust the other names.
The next best option right now is Deebo Samuel, as Dante Pettis has returned to part-time snap shares of 31% and 30% in the past two games. Pettis did score in Week 9, but on his only target. Samuel was far more involved, and his 7-4-40 line could have been much better if not for a bad drop in the end zone.
Still, this is a run-first team that looks like it now has a legit No. 1 WR on top of its highly-active TE, so Samuel's volume will be hit-or-miss. Jimmy Garoppolo's 37 pass attempts were a season high by four, and his 317 yards and four touchdowns were also season highs. Garoppolo played well in a plus matchup and gets two more in a row with Seattle and then Arizona again, both at home, in the next two weeks.
Kenyan Drake played a ton for Arizona. He broke off a 36-yard run on the game's first play and capped off the first drive with a 5-yard score, and went on to handle 19 of 21 running back touches, with Zach Zenner and Alfred Morris rushing just once each. Drake's 15-110-1 rushing line and 4-4-52 receiving line (he also caught a 2-point conversion) against a great defense will certainly give Arizona coaches plenty to think about; how this now three-headed backfield plays out will be a challenge to handicap going into Week 10.
For the time being, Edmonds seems like the longest odds to make a short-term impact, and he's probably droppable if you need the room. A big part of his value was a stranglehold on the No. 2 job, but he won't have that anymore. That's not to say he might not retain his No. 2 role, because that's certainly one possible outcome here, but it's the upside outcome for him and even in that scenario Drake should have at least earned some work.
Drake's potential outcomes are the widest, as he could revert to No. 3 on the depth chart when everyone is healthy or have carved out a legitimate piece of a committee. It's unlikely he'd start over David Johnson if Johnson is healthy, but Johnson's value is certainly fading with both of his current backups having played very well in his absence. He might find himself sharing snaps more frequently going forward, and might also be brought along slowly in his recovery given the other options available. He's also likely the only one of the three with a legitimate shot at playing a lion's share of the backfield if all three are healthy just because of his status. And of course, we might see him split out more to get two backs on the field, which wouldn't be a bad thing for Johnson's value.
Kyler Murray's final stat line was strong, but he benefited from a long catch-and-run late by Andy Isabella, and he missed a couple of throws early and was lucky a 49er defender dropped what could have been an easy interception. The 88-yard touchdown accounted for more than a third of Murray's 241 passing yards, though he continues to add value on the ground with 34 rushing yards.
Isabella played just 13 snaps, though that was a season high for the hyped rookie and perhaps he could work into a late-season role. Christian Kirk struggled with Richard Sherman in coverage often throughout the night. He's still a key piece of this passing game, and he should have had a third catch on his five targets but Murray missed him on a third down. Both Murray and Kirk will be strong plays in Tampa next week before a rematch with San Francisco.
Larry Fitzgerald went 4-4-38 and looked a little better than he has in a while, but his targets totaled just 10 air yards and his recent run of play will make him tough to trust. KeeSean Johnson and Pharoh Cooper both played ahead of Isabella, and both tight ends continue to be more involved than they were in the season's first few weeks, so the targets are just not very concentrated behind Kirk, the backs and at times Fitzgerald.
There's some signal in Arizona's inability to get off the field on defense, but the Cardinals' offense has run just 49 and 50 plays in the past two weeks, their two lowest totals this season. They've averaged 67 plays per game in their other seven contests and while they may be slowing down a bit offensively, game context has largely driven the recent lack of volume. That should bounce back.
Signal: 49ers RBs — split backfield with Coleman as lead, plenty of value overall; Emmanuel Sanders — No. 1 WR volume two games in a row
Noise: Cardinals — 50 offensive plays
Friday news and notes
- T.Y. Hilton suffered a calf injury in Wednesday's practice and wasn't able to get on the field either Thursday or Friday. He was reportedly in a boot and has been ruled out for Week 9, with coach Frank Reich saying he could miss three weeks. After a 106-2 receiving line in Week 7, Zach Pascal saw his biggest snap share of the season at 92% in a disappointing Week 8. He'd be the Colts' best bet for targets in an unconcentrated receiving corps that could also include more looks for the tight ends, should Hilton miss.
- Josh Gordon was officially released from IR Thursday, indicating a clean bill of health. If a team claims him — and he's expected to be claimed — that transaction would take effect Friday. It's unlikely we'll see him in Week 9, but it's not out the question he could play as soon as Week 10 in a new uniform.
- Adam Thielen has been getting in limited practices and reportedly feels good, but his status for Sunday is not yet certain. Thielen is trending toward suiting up for a plus matchup with the Chiefs.
- Patrick Mahomes has been practicing on a limited basis this week, but is notably not taking the first-team reps. There was some optimism he could return this week after practicing on a limited basis last week and saying he would have suited up for Week 8 if it were a playoff game, but that potential outcome is looking less likely. He's still well ahead of his initial injury timetables and we should see him before the team's Week 12 bye.
- Cam Newton's foot injury is reportedly "not getting better" and he's meeting with foot specialist Dr. Robert Anderson Friday to try to identify why. While there were reports a couple of weeks ago that Newton could be ready after the team's Week 7 bye, this latest information suggests he's still not particularly close to playing. If you're in a roster crunch in a 2QB format, dropping Newton is not out of the question, but hopefully we'll get an update on his long-term outlook before Sunday.
- Davante Adams practiced in pads Thursday for the first time since suffering his toe injury. Adams was designated a limited participant, but his potential to make a long-awaited return in Week 9 is trending up.
- Multiple Jets reporters have noted Adam Gase didn't sound like he expected to have Chris Herndon this week. Herndon has been practicing in a limited capacity but appears unlikely to suit up for Week 9.
- O.J. Howard was unable to practice Friday and is out for Week 9.
- Doug Pederson continues to sound like he expects DeSean Jackson back for Week 9, ahead of the Eagles Week 10 bye. No final decision has been made, though. Jackson had a big Week 1 in his return to the Eagles but has been sidelined since. If you can afford it, benching him this week against the Bears might be the best course of action, although Jackson is certainly the type of player who can put up a huge stat line on limited snaps.
- Dede Westbrook is questionable with the shoulder injury that knocked him from the Jaguars' Week 8 game. Jacksonville is in London for Week 9 in the early time slot Sunday morning, so we should have final news on his status and its impact on Chris Conley before the rest of Week 9 lineup decisions need to be made.
