Maybe life without Puka Nacua won't be so hard for the Rams. Maybe it'll just be as easy as throwing the ball to Cooper Kupp on every other play.
A 31-year-old receiver getting a 44% target share with an average route depth of 6.58 yards -- what could go wrong?!?
Jokes aside, the Rams have some real problems on offense -- more with their offensive line than their receiving corps. By the time the Rams get to Sunday against the Cardinals, they might have a newcomer at left tackle and a backup at right tackle and both guard spots. If they were playing against anybody else (OK, maybe not the Panthers), there would be cause for concern in Week 2. Arizona's D-line is thin, though not as thin as L.A.'s unit.
By virtue of high passing volume last week (51 dropbacks, 49 attempts) and a low average depth of target (5.9 yards), Stafford pieced together 317 yards with a touchdown at Detroit. You'd normally expect more from Stafford when he throws that much, but that's pretty much what the expectation should be this week.
And not everything can go to Kupp, even if we might want it to. He'll be a top-10 Fantasy receiver either way.
Who replaces Nacua?
Since arriving in L.A., Nacua was utilized mostly as an outside receiver with a modest 9.08 average depth of target. He specialized in in-breaking routes -- hitches, digs, crossers. He also had at least seven targets in every game he played in except two -- six targets in a game last year and four targets in the Week 1 game he left after 24 snaps.
Cooper Kupp has predominantly been a slot receiver for the Rams and Demarcus Robinson has mostly been an outside presence with speed to stretch the field. It's unlikely either of those two receivers will change their roles.
When it was suggested to coach Sean McVay on a team-produced video that a matured, prepared Tyler Johnson and rookie Jordan Whittington would get the chance to replace Nacua, McVay said, "I think so, and I think Tutu (Atwell) is ready to get some more opportunities. Tutu's a guy that's delivered for us. ... The answer's yes on [Johnson and Whittington], and then I also think Tutu's also going to be a factor."
That soundbite would suggest that McVay will rely on three people to replace Nacua, but he couldn't stop bringing up Atwell even though he wasn't directly asked about him.
That was odd. Atwell had a flash of success with the Rams to start last season, but he vanished pretty much once Cooper Kupp came back. He barely played the year prior. After Johnson and Whittington were the backups to Nacua during camp, according to The Athletic's Jourdan Rodrigue, it would be a little baffling to see Atwell suddenly take over that role.
It would be even more baffling when comparing Atwell's career metrics to Johnson's. Keeping in mind that Nacua was a perimeter receiver with a modest ADOT and that the Rams especially value receivers who can make plays after the catch, Johnson feels like the better fit over Atwell to replace Nacua.
| Player | % snaps wide | rec % | ADOT | YAC/rec | explo % | avoid tkl % | RZ TDs |
| Atwell | 56% | 56% | 13.6 | 2.9 | 15.7% | 5.3% | 2 |
| Johnson | 59% | 67% | 7.9 | 5.0 | 14.6% | 14.5% | 3 |
| Whittington | Rookie. Played two offensive snaps, had a TD rush called back by a penalty | ||||||
It's entirely possible that Johnson, Atwell, and Whittington will all play and take targets away from each other. But based on the number of snaps Johnson played last week, and the fact that Rodrigue pointed out Johnson's 63-yard catch-and-run at Detroit as an example of why he's the backup for Nacua (while also spelling out that Robinson is the Rams' No. 3 receiver), I'd expect Johnson to be the first man up.
Now you see why Tyler Johnson is the 2 behind Nacua.
— Jourdan Rodrigue (@JourdanRodrigue) September 9, 2024
A bump for Robinson?
For five straight games last season, Robinson posted at least 13 PPR points and became a big-play threat for the Rams. This was a stunning development, considering both Kupp and Nacua were on the field for those games.
Based on that, it would make sense for Fantasy managers to race toward Robinson as the best Fantasy replacement for Nacua.
There are some complications, however. If Robinson's role is going to stay the same, it means the type of targets he'll see will be downfield. Last year, he averaged a 12.3 ADOT, over three yards higher than Nacua and four yards higher than Kupp. Those deep shots will be especially hard to come by if Matthew Stafford is under constant pressure because his offensive line is loaded with backups.
Robinson is also not a lock for a lot of targets. True, in two of the five games during his hot streak last year, he saw 10 targets. In the other three? No more than six. And, being fair, he saw seven targets in Week 1 but didn't even crack 10 PPR points.
Maybe in a normal week with a healthier offensive line, Robinson would be the play. But if the Rams are going to get the ball out quickly, even against the lowly Cardinals, Johnson should see more targets than Robinson. And since both Johnson and Robinson have the skill set to break away from defenders (Robinson more so than Johnson), there isn't a discernible edge for one over the other, so taking the one with more target potential makes the most sense.
Of course, you'd have to be desperate to use either one in Week 2 Fantasy lineups. Neither receiver is ranked in our consensus top-48 wideouts.
But at least you're not as desperate as the Rams are to field a functional offensive line. Hopefully.
Ramming some points home
- Matthew Stafford isn't a lock for big numbers, but it's more because of the O-line than it is missing Nacua. Both are obviously important. For this week, he still qualifies as a top-15 Fantasy quarterback, but as the matchups get tougher over the next three weeks, he should be avoided.
- Kyren Williams also figures to get schemed up to be used in the passing game, especially if the interior of the offense line is completely reconfigured this week. That just makes sense, and the Cardinals don't have many great options to cover Williams out of the backfield, especially since they figure to play plenty of zone coverage, which creates space for running backs to pick up short targets and turn them into chunk plays. I wouldn't hesitate to start Williams as a No. 1 option.
- Colby Parkinson is almost certain to be an every-down player for the Rams for the next four weeks. The problem is that he's probably a better blocker than he is a pass-catcher. The Rams will need his help up front, taking opportunities away from him -- and giving them to the other receivers. Parkinson is a streaming Fantasy tight end.
- I don't know if Whittington is available in your Dynasty leagues but now's the time to pick him up in case he is. Whittington did have some good days in training camp, according to reports, and the Rams clearly value his speed already if they're giving him a carry on a jet sweep at the goal line like they did last week. Stash him in those leagues and stash him in deep redraft leagues, too.
