There's been plenty of debate about whether Carson Wentz had a good rookie season. It all depends on how you measure it.
Comparing Wentz historically to all rookie quarterbacks without context for era, he had a very good rookie season. Especially if you just focus on counting stats and efficiency.
Comparing Wentz to all quarterbacks in 2016 is far less favorable, especially if you focus on his subpar efficiency and his TD/INT ratio.
As is generally the case, the truth is somewhere in the middle. Regardless of how you want to evaluate Wentz in the past, there are a two facts we can all agree on regarding his future:
- The Eagles added enough offensive firepower in 2017 to ensure that it won't be a shortage of weapons holding back his development.
- Wentz is going to need to improve if he's going to support all of these offensive weapons in Fantasy.
Can he? Let's start by ranking the Eagles:
*Rankings expressed below are in terms of expected Fantasy points. This is a part of our actual Fantasy Football rankings but not a direct correlation to my rankings. Things like injury risk, upside, etc. factor into rankings but they're not being talked about here. This is simply an expectation as the team is currently constructed.
| Player Name Player Name | Expected FP | Position Rank | Expected PPR FP | Position Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Alshon Jeffery
PHI WR
| 152.4 | #15 | 224.4 | #18 |
Zach Ertz
PHI TE
| 107 | #8 | 177 | #7 |
LeGarrette Blount
PHI RB
| 127.6 | #27 | 130.6 | #38 |
Darren Sproles
PHI RB
| 107.7 | #36 | 154.5 | #27 |
Jordan Matthews
PHI WR
| 96.5 | #51 | 159.5 | #54 |
Carson Wentz
PHI QB
| 282 | #23 | 282 | #23 |
Breaking down the touches
Before you get too disturbed by Wentz's ranking above, let's talk volume. He threw the ball 609 times last season. The Eagles ran nearly 1,100 plays. I'm not sure either of those numbers are particularly sustainable.
I'm expecting the Eagles will throw the ball 570 times in 2017 which is due to both a small reduction in plays and a small increase in their percentage of run plays. Dividing those targets is made more difficult be the additions of Jeffery and Torrey Smith, but the one thing I feel confident in is that the Eagles will heavily target their tight ends. Between Travis Kelce and Zach Ertz, targets (if not touchdowns) have been reliable for the tight end in Doug Pederson offenses. I also expect Darren Sproles will continue getting his share.
Let's take a look at the expectations:
| Eagles touches | ||||||||
| Player | RuSHARE | RuATT | ReSHARE | TGT | REC | TD | ||
| LeGarrette Blount | 50% | 215 | 1% | 5 | 3 | 8 | ||
| Darren Sproles | 20% | 88 | 12% | 70 | 53 | 4 | ||
| Alshon Jeffery | 0% | 0 | 21% | 120 | 72 | 8 | ||
| Jordan Matthews | 0% | 0 | 18% | 100 | 63 | 4 | ||
| Torrey Smith | 0% | 0 | 14% | 81 | 40 | 3 | ||
| Zach Ertz | 0% | 0 | 18% | 100 | 70 | 5 | ||
Of note:
- I'm sure it's frightening to trust Blount outside of New England, but he's the only back with any size on the roster. If he's able to stay healthy and play 16 games, I may even be low on the touchdowns. Assuming ...
- Ryan Mathews is nowhere to be found. He's still currently on the roster, but we assume he'll be cut as soon as he's medically cleared. Just know that's not guaranteed.
- I'm expecting Jordan Matthews to take the biggest hit in targets. If he doesn't score more touchdowns, he'll be all but useless in Fantasy.
The Leftovers
Wendell Smallwood and Donnel Pumphrey will both compete for touches out of training camp. If Blount is out of shape or Sproles falters, either could find a role in the offense. I don't have much hope for Smallwood wrestling the job away from any healthy bodies, though. Pumphrey is slightly more interesting, but I see him as more of a replacement for Sproles in the future.
Trey Burton is a young tight end who would be semi-exciting if it wasn't for Ertz. He won't have any real value if Ertz statys healthy, but in case of injury he has top-10 potential.
