We had big news Sunday night with Russell Wilson expected to sign a one-year deal in Pittsburgh. Wilson posted a tribute video to the Steelers on X that said "Year 13. Grateful."
Wilson is expected to take over as the starter in Pittsburgh. We will probably hear about a competition between Wilson and Kenny Pickett in training camp, but Wilson should eventually prove to be the better quarterback for the Steelers in 2024.
Wilson had a rocky two-year tenure with the Broncos that ended March 5 when he was designated a post, June 1st release. Denver is paying most of Wilson's $38 million this season, so this move makes sense for Pittsburgh to see what Wilson can do at 35. ESPN reported that Wilson will sign a "team-friendly" deal with the Steelers.
In 2023, Wilson started 15 games and passed for 3,070 yards, 26 touchdowns and eight interceptions. He also had 341 rushing yards and three touchdowns. He averaged 19.7 Fantasy points per game.
Wilson is no longer a No. 1 Fantasy quarterback, and he should be viewed as a mid-level No. 2 option at best. He's not going to be drafted in most one-quarterback leagues, and he'll be a mid-round pick in Superflex and two-quarterback formats. Wilson only posted 10 games of at least 20 Fantasy points in his past 30 games in Denver.
The Steelers are going to be a run-centric offense under new coordinator Arthur Smith, and Smith's quarterbacks haven't been stellar the past three seasons when he was the head coach in Atlanta. Desmond Ridder averaged 12.7 Fantasy points per game as the primary starter for the Falcons in 2023, Marcus Mariota was at 16.5 Fantasy points as the main quarterback in 2022 and Matt Ryan averaged 14.6 Fantasy points in 2021.
However, Smith did have success as the offensive coordinator in Tennessee with Ryan Tannehill in 2020 (25.0 Fantasy points per game) and 2019 (21.5), and maybe Smith can help Wilson have a resurgent season in 2024. I'm not optimistic, but Wilson does have quality weapons to work with in Pittsburgh's passing game with George Pickens, Diontae Johnson and Pat Freiermuth, as well as running backs Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren.
For the pass catchers, Wilson is an upgrade for them over Pickett. Wilson will hopefully bring out the best in Pickens, who is entering his third season in the NFL and just had 63 catches for 1,140 yards and five touchdowns on 106 targets in 2023.
Pickens is worth drafting as a high-end No. 3 Fantasy receiver this season, and you should look for him as early as Round 6. Wilson just helped Courtland Sutton score a career-high 10 touchdowns in Denver in 2023, and hopefully, Wilson can help Pickens find the end zone more often as well since he has only nine touchdowns in his two-year career.
Johnson should also be considered a No. 3 Fantasy receiver, but he should be drafted after Pickens in the Round 8 range. Johnson has struggled the past two seasons since Ben Roethlisberger retired at 10.1 PPR points per game in 2022 and 12.3 PPR points per game in 2023. Before that, Johnson averaged 16.7 PPR points per game with Roethlisberger in 2021 and 15.1 PPR points per game in 2020.
Johnson had 51 catches for 717 yards and five touchdowns on 87 targets in 13 games last season. He should prove to be a valuable weapon for Wilson, but Johnson is no longer worth trusting as a standout Fantasy receiver in Smith's offense.
As for Freiermuth, he remains just a No. 2 Fantasy tight end, and he's only worth a late-round flier in deeper leagues. Wilson doesn't have a great history of throwing to tight ends in Denver and Seattle, but Smith's offenses have been tight-end friendly in Tennessee and Atlanta.
Freiermuth averaged 9.1 PPR points per game as a rookie in 2021 and then 8.8 PPR points in 2022. He struggled in 2023 at 7.0 PPR points per game in just 12 outings, and it's hard to expect a big year out of him with Wilson under center.
Wilson's signing shouldn't impact the Fantasy value for the running backs in Pittsburgh. Both Harris and Warren got a boost with Smith becoming the offensive coordinator, and both should be considered borderline starters in all leagues.
I give a slight nod to Harris over Warren given Harris' expected role as the lead rusher in Smith's offense. Harris has three years in a row with at least 255 carries, 1,034 yards and seven touchdowns, and Harris is worth drafting as early as Round 6.
Harris will continue to lose work to Warren in the passing game -- Harris had a career-low 29 catches for 170 yards on 38 targets in 2023 -- and Warren just averaged 10.9 PPR points per game. Warren rushed 149 times for 784 yards and four touchdowns last season, but he also added 61 catches for 370 yards on 74 targets. I would draft Warren right after Harris in Round 7.
It's a new era in Pittsburgh with Wilson signing with the Steelers. He's no longer a Fantasy star, but we'll see if he can make the players around him better. And that would be a win for us as Fantasy managers this season.