Just like the college football teams we’re following right now, the classic clichés apply to ferreting out the quarterbacks who will (or won’t) have good days during the weekend. We want to “keep improving” and “get better every day” while looking to “clean some stuff up” and “only worry about things we can control.”
Yup, finding the studs or duds in the quarterback ranks each week is rife with opportunity to trot out time-honored phrases that mean very little. In the end, it’s about production.
Last Week’s Starts
Week 9 had featured some really nice start options in Graham at Marshall and Davis at East Carolina. Both were over 33 points in composite Fantasy scoring, which is a number any Fantasy owner will take week-in and week-out. I got some 20-plus points outing from Manuel at Florida State and O’Brien at Maryland, but missed huge on Lindley at SDSU. On a day when star running back Ronnie Hillman went nuts, you’d think Lindley could be a 50 percent passer. Alas, he was not.
Zach Maynard (California) 2, E.J. Manuel (Florida State) 23, Danny O’Brien (Maryland) 21, Logan Thomas (Virginia Tech) 11, Ryan Lindley (San Diego State) 19, A.J. Graham (Marshall) 37, Dominique Davis (East Carolina) 33.
Grade: B
Last Week’s Sits
On the “sit” ledger, I had a very good week -- with one massive exception -- Brett Smith at Wyoming (on the road, no less). The rest of the picks were in the teens or lower, so the overall was pretty good, but I’ll admit to some real positive vibes for the true freshman running the Cowboys offense. It’s not like the Mountain West is loaded with great defenses outside TCU and Boise State, so Smith has some real long-term Fantasy potential moving forward.
Riley Nelson (BYU) 18, Kirk Cousins (Michigan State) 1, Nathan Scheelhaase (Illinois) 14, Brett Smith (Wyoming) 39, Trey Miller/Jarvis Cummings (Navy) 11/8, Tommy Rees (Notre Dame) 11.
Grade: B
What we need to do is look ahead to Week 10 and the continued playoff push.
Start Em! Quarterbacks (BCS)
Matt Barkley, USC: Only Rice has given up more touchdown passes (23) than Colorado (22) and I’m thinking the Buffs are going to challenge for the national lead after this one. Here’s the ugly truth -- the Buffs have been annihilated by injuries to their secondary, even moving a couple of running backs to the cornerback spots -- and they got hurt. They are woefully thin at defensive back and with a less-than-fearsome pass rush joining the party, opposing quarterbacks are delighting in the bounty of time and free space for receivers to run. Barkley was every bit Andrew Luck‘s equal last week and with that kind of confidence-building performance on his resume, expect him to pick Colorado apart this weekend.
Jared Barnett, Iowa State: OK, here’s the “Is he insane?” choice this week. The redshirt freshman Barnett got the start against Texas Tech last week and led the Cyclones to a 41-7 hammering of the favored Red Raiders. Barnett threw for a score and ran for another and now has the chance to continue his development against a Kansas defense that’s as giving as just about any defense in the nation. Based on his play last week, it’s hard to fathom him not getting a second start this week. Barnett is a youngster and he’s inexperienced, but he’s got an “it” factor that could be gravy for Fantasy owners. I know, I know -- I’m setting myself up for failure here, but I like the way this kid plays. And besides, it’s Kansas. This is a calculated Fantasy risk.
Zach Collaros, Cincinnati: Yes, they are on the road at Pittsburgh, but I don’t think the Panthers pass defense (ranked 87th nationally) is anything that Collaros can’t handle. I like the fact that Collaros can pass or run with equal effectiveness and with Isaiah Pead a real rushing and receiving threat, the Panthers will be spread pretty thin defensively. I look for Collaros to get nearly 300 yards passing, but to also hurt the Panthers with his feet. He’s accounted for 20 scores this season through seven games, so expect him to hold to that average. I’m guessing he produces about 350 yards of offense and three scores in this one.
All 120
Kellen Moore, Boise State: Moore is an interesting cat -- Fantasy players know he’s a good quarterback, but he sometimes get overshadowed by the bigger names from bigger programs. He’s also willing to let his running game do some damage; hence, he tends to put up good stats with few monster games. He’s more the smooth and steady type, but my gut tells me he’s due for a big one. UNLV will be the stage, but the show will belong to Moore as he reminds the nation that guys like Luck and Barkley may be marquee matchups, but he’s certainly someone who belongs in that conversation as well.
Corey Robinson, Troy: At the very least, expect Navy to be able to run against Troy, and that forces Robinson and his crew to have to pass a bunch. The wins (2) have been few and far between for a Troy team that was expecting more, but they’ve still got a few bullets in the gun. Robinson can carry a team on his own, but has struggled at times this season. I like him to put together a big statistical game in this one, even if Troy loses.
Zac Dysert, Miami (Ohio): In this Thursday night tilt with visiting Akron, Dysert will demonstrate both the running and passing abilities that have him 29th in the country in total offense, averaging 272 yards a game overall. Akron’s pass defense is solid, but I think this is a case of the quarterback being capable of doing damage multiple ways. If this were on the road, I’d have some second thoughts, but at home in a nationally-televised game -- I like Dysert a ton in this one.
Sit Em! Quarterbacks (BCS)
MarQueis Gray, Minnesota: Before we all hop on the Gray bandwagon, I want to offer a cautionary note – the likelihood that Saturday’s performance in the shocking win over Iowa is something akin to a landslide of productivity is not reality. With a visit to Michigan State on tap -- a Michigan State team that’s going to be very unhappy -- I see a lot of similarities between Gray and Michigan's Denard Robinson when he visited. And let’s face it; Michigan has a lot better overall parts that Minnesota. No question Gray is a top-flight offensive talent, but he’s yet to really parlay that talent into week-to-week wonderfulness. In fact, he’s been barely holding onto his job the last few weeks. Let’s face it, the trip to MSU is an open invitation to revert back to his ineffective self and I, for one, believe the Spartan defense will be particularly nasty this weekend. Gray should be avoided.
Ryan Tannehill, Texas Tech: I like Tannehill. I like his productivity most weeks, but we just got a good look at an Oklahoma team that’s been roused -- and it was devastating. This game is in Norman, Okla., which makes it all the more dangerous, and I don’t see Tannehill really having a good day. The Sooners are the top one-loss team in the BCS right now, which gives them incentive not only to win, but to put it to people. Style points matter to the pollsters and that affects the BCS formula. There are likely to be losses in front of them, which means they’ve got the ability to still get back into the National Championship picture if results break their way. Tannehill will be under relentless pressure from the first snap, and I just don’t like where I can see this one headed. Pick someone else.
Jon Hays, Utah: Arizona’s defense isn’t what it used to be, but at home and with an offense that figures to punish Utah, the Utes will be forced to pass, and that’s just not where the youngster Hays wants to be. He showed plenty of improvement last week, but Arizona can be a tough place to play, even with a subpar defense. Expect the Wildcat offense to put so much pressure on Utah to score that Hays makes some rookie mistakes. Thrust into the job, Hays has made some strides, but he’s not ready for what’s about to befall him.
Darron Thomas, Oregon: OK, I’ll give you one that we’ll call my “shocker pick.” Thomas will be on the road in a bitter rivalry game with the Washington Huskies. Not only that, but Thomas has been beaten around a bit the last few weeks and was pulled from Saturday’s win over Washington State at halftime for what coach Chip Kelly called “injury and performance” related issues. Thomas took a couple huge shots in the WSU game and I kind of wonder if he’s not feeling the effects more than is being suggested. I don’t think he’s terrible, but I don’t think he’s 100 percent, which means I think he struggles more than we’d expect in this one. There, I said it.
All 120
Matt Christian, New Mexico State: Coming off a 400-yard, three score outing against Nevada, Christian has been something of a revelation after being handed the starting job five weeks into the season. He’s got 10 touchdown passes over the last four games, which certainly gets Fantasy players paying attention. Unfortunately, the scheduling gods have demonstrated their sense of humor by sending the Aggies to Georgia this week. That’s the Georgia Bulldogs, my friends. I don’t care what kind of season Georgia may be having; they bring a level of athleticism to the party that NMSU isn’t going to be able to match. The pixie in me would love to see Christian throw the ball all over the field in an upset win. The realist in me knows that’s unlikely to happen. He’ll have a tough day, but live to excite Fantasy owners in the coming weeks.
B.J. Daniels, South Florida: Hard to believe I’m about to say this, but Rutgers trots out a pretty darn good pass defense -- and they are at home in this one against South Florida. The Scarlet Knights are one of the nation’s better teams at rushing the passer, tallying more than three sacks per game. I like Daniels’ talent and his ability to affect a game with his legs or his arm, but I don’t like his penchant for flaking out with absurdly average performances against teams he should torch. I smell a stinker coming up in New York and advise you stay away from Daniels this weekend.
Kolton Browning, Louisiana-Monroe: Browning has had an up and down season, but is coming off a 365-yard, two-touchdown effort last week -- one of his better outings of the season. Unfortunately, if Browning has shown us anything this year, it’s that he simply can’t put a run of good games together. He’s on the road this week at Louisiana-Lafayette, which offers a pass defense that’s middle-of-the-road. I think Browning had his big outing and now, faced with a road game in a season that’s getting away from his team; a poor effort seems destined to follow. I liked Browning a lot this preseason and penciled him in as a big-time sleeper kind of guy. But he hasn’t been able to deliver. He won’t this week, either.
