Welcome to Stealing Signals, your look at snaps, touches, game flow, efficiency and everything in between. Stealing Signals is a game-by-game breakdown of everything you saw in your Fantasy box score, identifying what is signal and what is noise to help you make decisions for future weeks.
As we approach the holidays and everyone's time gets cut a little thinner, we'll be doing something a bit different with Stealing Signals. Through the remainder of the season, I'll be replacing the main portion of each game's writeup with quick-hitting bullet points of trends and other notes.
The snaps, key stat, signal and noise will remain. The idea is this will be a bit easier to consume as we approach the home stretch. Also, keep an eye out after the season, when I'll be recapping the trends in a seasonal wrap for each team. I'll be striving to give you Dynasty players plenty to consider for the offseason and provide a reference point for next summer when Redraft season ramps back up.
Hope you enjoy the new format!
Snap Notes: Will Fuller: 90% (return from hamstring injury), Kenny Stills: 63% (-22 vs. four-game low when Fuller was hurt), Jonathan Williams: 67% (+23 vs. Week 11 season high), Nyheim Hines: 33% (+4 vs. season average), Jordan Wilkins: 1% (-12 vs. season average), Zach Pascal: 88% (lowest since Week 7), Marcus Johnson: 63% (lowest since Week 10 season debut), T.Y. Hilton: 37% (-46 vs. season average)
Key Stat: Will Fuller — 90% snap share, 11 targets, 164 air yards
- Will Fuller was fantastic in his return, going 7-140 on 11 targets and 164 air yards to easily lead the game in receiving opportunity. DeAndre Hopkins' 6-94-2 came on great volume as well — eight targets and 114 air yards — and both Texans receivers made multiple electric plays as the passing game was very concentrated between those two. The rest of the team combined for just nine targets.
- Darren Fells and Jordan Akins still had roles, but Akins' presence limited Fells as usual. Texans tight end Jordan Thomas also made his season debut, playing seven snaps. Thomas caught four touchdowns in his 2018 rookie season and could grow into a role that further dilutes Texans tight end targets.
- Jordan Wilkins returned for the Colts but played just one snap, as Jonathan Williams got the feature back treatment and Nyheim Hines' role was unchanged.
- The Colts ran 39 times against just 25 pass attempts. We always talk about how game script sensitive they are, but they leaned heavily toward the run despite neutral script in this one. There was a lot of commentary on Twitter about how efficient they were on the ground — and they were, averaging 4.5 yards per rush — and yet runs are inherently more conservative than passes. There's really no better argument for throwing more than running than looking at the Colts being so effective on the ground yet being out-gained by 100 yards, scoring just 17 points and losing.
- T.Y. Hilton returned to a limited role, but still led the Colts in targets and air yards. Marcus Johnson gave up more snaps than Zach Pascal to accommodate Hilton, and Pascal's full-time role notably began before Hilton's injury. Hilton should be ready for more playing time in Week 13 after 10 days off, and I'd expect Pascal to play a solid number of snaps as the No. 2 when Hilton's back to full strength.
Signal: Jonathan Williams — heavy usage as lead back; Will Fuller — healthy, played full snap share, tons of opportunity led to concentrated Texans pass attack
Noise: T.Y. Hilton — 6 targets, 18 yards (played limited snaps, still led team, should be clear No. 1 going forward)
Friday news and notes
- Both James Conner and JuJu Smith-Schuster are trending toward missing Sunday's game against the Bengals, with the NFL's Ian Rapoport reporting Conner won't play. The Steelers expect to have Benny Snell back, and it's possible we're looking at Snell having a large role on early downs. Trey Edmunds could also mix in, while Jaylen Samuels should maintain a passing downs role. It's a fluid situation in the backfield, but Snell is worth consideration if you're desperate given the Bengals struggle to defend the run and the Steelers figure to lean heavily on it. Diontae Johnson figures to be back to start alongside James Washington in the receiving corps.
- Mohamed Sanu hopes to practice Friday, but his status for Sunday's matchup with the Cowboys is in question. Phillip Dorsett is in the league's concussion protocol, but returned to a limited practice Thursday and seems likely to suit up presuming he is cleared. If one or both were to miss, first-round pick N'Keal Harry would figure to have an expanded role, while Jakobi Meyers could also likely mix in. Harry is an intriguing upside play in deeper leagues after catching three of four targets in a limited Week 11 role, but there's always the risk Julian Edelman and the running backs dominate targets.
- Brandin Cooks has cleared the concussion protocol, while Robert Woods returned to the team following his Week 11 absence due to a personal matter. It appears the Rams will have their receiving corps at full strength for the first time in several weeks when they host the Ravens, though Woods is not yet a lock to play and we'll need to get confirmation on his status given the Rams play Monday night.
- George Kittle is expected to play Sunday night. That's not a certainty, but that he's trending in the right direction before the weekend seems to indicate he won't be a game-time decision. It's probably a good idea to also roster Ross Dwelley if possible in case Kittle is a late scratch, but Kittle should be a viable lineup option in a good matchup. Both Deebo Samuel and Emmanuel Sanders got in limited practices Thursday, and each appear to be on track to play as well.
- The Patriots will reportedly not re-sign Antonio Brown, which would seem to limit his available options. It's still possible he latches on somewhere, but the report this week expressing optimism he could play notably came from Brown's own camp.
- Doug Pederson said both Nelson Agholor and Alshon Jeffery are trending in the right direction to play Sunday when the Eagles host the Seahawks. Jordan Howard has been limited in practice but has not been cleared for contact. Should he miss again, Miles Sanders would head up the backfield while we could see more of Jay Ajayi after a week of practice with the team.
- Delanie Walker got in limited practices Wednesday and Thursday for the Titans, but was slapped with a doubtful tag for Week 12. Corey Davis was a full participant and should be ready to go.
- Devonta Freeman looks likely to miss again in Week 12 following multiple missed practices this week. The Falcons host the Tampa Bay Bucs, who are far better against the run than the pass, so we might see them air things out. Still, Brian Hill projects for a solid touch floor if Freeman is indeed inactive. Hill was a bit of a disappointment in Week 11 as rookie Qadree Ollison stole a short touchdown, but Hill decisively led in playing time and touches and had a short touchdown of his own called back because of a hold.
So who should you sit and start this week? And which surprising quarterback could lead you to victory? Visit SportsLine now to get Week 12 rankings for every position, plus see which QB is going to come out of nowhere to crack the top 10, all from the model that out-performed experts big time last season.