Editor's note: Each week Dave Richard, Jamey Eisenberg and Nathan Zegura will tackle lineup dilemmas that you might be facing. These subjects are derived from discrepancies in Dave's and Jamey's weekly rankings .
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Cam Newton isn't the most accurate passer, or the most efficient passer, or even the most exciting passer in the NFL. But he's still doing some pretty amazing things. There's no need to run down his stats, except for this: He's finished as a Top 6 Fantasy passer in standard formats in three of his first four weeks, getting at least 28 points each time. If the Bears couldn't sack him last week, the Saints don't have much of a shot either. Moreover, New Orleans has allowed two 300-yard, three-touchdown quarterbacks already this season -- those are numbers right in Newton's wheelhouse. Tom Brady was emasculated the last time he took on the Jets and they're good at defending the pass. Philip Rivers hasn't been himself lately and Matt Ryan doesn't have the same kind of potential as Newton. I'll take the rookie. |
Let's make one thing clear: No one is saying to sit Newton this week against the Saints. He's had three games with at least 28 Fantasy points, and the one game he had fewer than 20 points was when he played in a monsoon in Week 3. But let's keep Newton in some perspective: He's still a rookie quarterback who could struggle at any moment, so don't start him over Brady, Rivers or Ryan. If this is a matchup thing then Ryan has the best matchup of any passer this week since Green Bay has allowed the most Fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Rivers faces Denver, which is No. 3 in most Fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks. Brady has the toughest matchup of any quarterback this week, but the Jets pass defense is overrated. They got abused by Tony Romo in Week 1, and their positive stats have come against Jacksonville, Oakland and Baltimore. And if your argument is that Newton has been impressive so far this season, look at Brady. He has been better than Newton in three of four weeks this year. And he, along with Rivers and Ryan, will be better than Newton this week. |
Cam Newton has now produced 28-plus Fantasy points in three of his four career starts and has a very good shot to make it four out of five this week against the Saints. Newton will have to throw it a lot to keep up with the Saints, who did give up 373 yards and three scores to Matt Schaub in his best game of the year. For the season, the Saints are allowing 281 yards and two scores per game through the air and they have given up 21.5 points per game to opposing quarterbacks, tied for ninth most. Add in Newton's 30-40 yards rushing and his likely goal line touchdown (he leads all players in the NFL with four rushing touchdowns from inside the five yard line) and it is easy to see another big game for the young quarterback. That is why I am starting him over some big name quarterbacks this week including Tom Brady, who has a very tough matchup against the Jets. Brady has only a 25 percent big game rate against the Rex Ryan led Jets, who enter the game as the second ranked pass defense. They have also allowed a league low two passing scores this year and no team is allowing fewer Fantasy points per week to opposing quarterbacks. Brady is still a solid start, but for our purposes here, I would take Newton's upside in Week 5. |
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I've seen enough from Cruz over the last two weeks to be sure that
he's not vanishing from the Giants' offense. More specifically, he's
not vanishing from the Giants' offense against the Seahawks
secondary this week. He matches up well against either of their
starting corners, but more importantly, proved himself worthy last
week with six catches on nine targets from Eli Manning. Hakeem Nicks he's
not but for the time being, he'll play in two-receiver sets opposite
Nicks or in the slot with Nicks and Mario Manningham split out wide. Either way, he's going to see a
fair amount of work. With several receivers on bye and Cruz an easy
reach off waivers, he's going to be helpful to Fantasy owners in
Week 5. I'd start him over: Nate Washington (at PIT), Jacoby Jones (vs. OAK), Reggie Wayne (vs. KC) |
I consider Cruz a solid No. 3 Fantasy receiver this week. He should
have been added in all leagues, and he's someone to have on your
roster in case his performance the past two weeks against
Philadelphia and Arizona continues. But don't look for Mario Manningham to remain in a secondary role to Cruz for long.
Here's what the New York Daily News reported Tuesday about
Manningham's demotion against the Cardinals: "He's just coming off a
concussion, so maybe he deserves a pass here. He's also probably got
more upside than Cruz, so it's doubtful he'll lose his job
permanently even though he' s never been particularly crisp with his
routes." We can easily see Manningham have more targets than Cruz
against Seattle, and the Giants might also rely more on their ground
game this week. Cruz is a risky starter in standard 12-team leagues. I'd rather start: Santonio Holmes (at NE), A.J. Green (at JAC), Percy Harvin (vs. ARI) |
With six teams on a bye this week, you will have to dig deep to find
your third wide receiver and young Victor Cruz is a good Bye Week Broski, but I would hope that you
have better options. I do like that Cruz is catching 61.1 percent of
his targets and is averaging a very healthy 12.5 yards per target,
so he is an excellent addition to your teams for the long haul
because Eli Manning will need three
options week in and week out in the passing game. If you are in a
pinch, go with him, but the matchup is far from ideal this week
against the Seahawks. So far, the Hawks have allowed only three
passing scores on the year -- second fewest in the league -- and
only opposing No. 1 receivers have scored against them. I also think Mario Manningham will be getting back into the mix, so I am not
yet totally clear on Cruz's role which is why I would keep him
reserved if I have another quality option. I'd rather start: Julio Jones (vs. GB), A.J. Green (at JAC), Plaxico Burress (at NE) |
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Last week we saw Starks get his best opportunity to be the Packers'
primary rusher, and he came up with good numbers, not great numbers.
He totaled 101 yards, which is nice, but it came without a touchdown
despite the fact that the Packers were in the Broncos' red zone on
six separate occasions. And when the Packers needed him to convert a
fourth-and-1, he was pushed backward. I'm not impressed with Starks,
and he's bound to split reps with a returning Ryan Grant this week; the last time they did that Starks was
virtually shut out. The Falcons' run defense is good, especially
compared to their pass defense, so we'll see more from Aaron Rodgers' arm than Starks' legs. If you can, find someone to
start in place of him. I'd rather start: Shonn Greene (at NE), Brandon Jacobs (vs. SEA), Mark Ingram (at CAR) |
I'm starting every relevant offensive player in Sunday night's game
between Green Bay and Atlanta because we're looking at a potential
offensive bonanza. They combined for 69 points in their playoff
matchup last year, and they should score plenty of points again.
Starks will play a prominent role as the main running back for the
Packers. Yes, Ryan Grant should
return after missing last week with a bruised kidney, but he will
again play in a secondary role behind Starks. Starks has at least
nine Fantasy points in three games this season, and the Falcons have
allowed three running backs to reach double digits in Fantasy points
with Matt Forte, LeSean McCoy and Marshawn Lynch.
The worst performance by a running back was LeGarrette Blount in Week 3 when he had nine points. Look for Starks
to once again play well, and he's worth starting as a No. 2 Fantasy
option in all formats. I'm starting Starks over: Kendall Hunter (vs. TB), Jonathan Stewart (vs. NO), Stevan Ridley (vs. NYJ) |
James Starks has produced double digit Fantasy points in
three of his four games this year, but with Ryan Grant back and a tough Falcons run defense on tap in Week
5, I do not consider him a top 20 option. Grant was the better
runner in Week 3 against Chicago and you have to think he will play
a big role against Atlanta. Even with Grant out last week, Starks
saw only 13 carries against Denver and at the end of the day, Green
Bay is a passing team. Starks does not have a single goal line carry
this year and he will need a touchdown to be a great starting option
this week. The Falcons are ranked 10th against the run at 97.2 yards
per game on just 3.7 yards per carry, so starting one half of a
running back by committee is risky when we really do not know how
the workload will be distributed. If you are in a bye week pinch,
roll with Starks, but ideally you would keep him reserved in Week 5. I'd rather start: Mike Tolbert (at DEN), Joseph Addai (vs. KC), Mark Ingram (at CAR) |
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Darren Sproles has been a joy to watch; the Saints are using him in ways the Chargers couldn't and wouldn't. But this matchup against the Panthers is just as good for Ingram as it is for Sproles. Last week we saw the Saints turn to fullback Jed Collins for a goal-line score instead of Ingram. That was disappointing, but that can't last. The Saints didn't draft Ingram to watch Collins score from a yard out game after game, so Ingram can get that chance back against a Panthers defense that's given up a rushing touchdown from 7 yards or less in three of four games. Carolina's actually been decent against running backs catching passes, so that's another factor that helps Ingram and hurts Sproles. |
You can start both Sproles and Ingram in the majority of Fantasy leagues this week based on the matchup since the Panthers have been terrible in run defense all season. They have allowed four running backs to reach double digits in Fantasy points this year with Beanie Wells, Starks, Maurice Jones-Drew and Matt Forte. But if you handcuffed Sproles and Ingram, there's no reason to go away from Sproles now since he's been the better Fantasy option so far this season. Sproles has double digits in Fantasy points in his past three games, while Ingram hasn't reached double digits once. Sproles is the one on passing downs for a passing team, and Ingram is a glorified goal-line back who last week lost a goal-line touchdown to fullback Jed Collins at Jacksonville. I expect both running backs to reach double digits in Fantasy points this week. But Sproles will finish with higher production since he has done so in every game this year. |
If you are in a point-per-reception league, Darren Sproles is the better option for you and it is not even close. Sproles leads all running backs with 35 targets and 26 catches and he has been very consistent with at least five catches and 50-plus yards receiving in every game. Sproles has also seen his rushing yards increase every game and is coming off of a season high 75 yards on a season high seven carries against the Jaguars. Sproles has produced 125 total yards or scored a touchdown in every game this year and is the safest Saints running back, regardless of format, in most weeks. This week in standard leagues, however, I am going with the bull Mark Ingram. The Panthers are allowing 144 yards (second most) and a touchdown (tied for seventh most) per game on the ground at a generous 5.2 yards per carry. Ingram is coming off of a 17-carry game and should be busy again this week, so I am expecting a career high in rushing yards and a score or maybe even two. Matt Forte just pounded the Panthers for over 200 yards rushing and you can bet the Saints will have a very balanced attack this week to take advantage of that. Both are great starts, but your league's format determines which one I prefer for your team in Week 5. |
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Cook led the Titans in targets last week and is a cinch to stay
involved in their pass attack. But there's no way he's going to
break short catches for long touchdowns on a regular basis, and
certainly not against the Steelers. Pittsburgh is desperate for a
win after falling apart in Houston and will work hard to tame the
Titans at home. They've been uncharacteristically weak against
opposing tight ends this season so there's probably some work to be
done there, and worse yet the Titans have used three tight ends as
part of their attack. When Craig Stevens
or Daniel Graham get involved, those
are numbers that are taken away from Cook. I want to like Cook, but
with last week's score being only the second of his three-year
career and with two catches max per game this season, he's got to
prove his worth before I count on him as anything more than a
one-week replacement. I'd rather start: Dallas Clark (vs. KC), Scott Chandler (vs. PHI), Dustin Keller (at NE) |
Here's where we are with tight ends this week: Jason Witten and Fred Davis are
on a bye, Antonio Gates (foot) and Aaron Hernandez (knee) are injured, Dallas Clark has fallen apart without Peyton Manning (neck) and Kellen Winslow
is on the back of a milk carton. Why wouldn't you start Cook this
week? The Titans are in need of playmakers in the passing game with Kenny Britt (knee) out for the season, and Cook was No. 1 in
targets last week with six at Cleveland. He also showed his big-play
ability with an 80-yard touchdown catch against the Browns, and this
week he gets a Steelers defense that is falling apart. Pittsburgh is
without standout linebacker James Harrison
(eye), and the Steelers just allowed Owen Daniels to catch five passes for 69 yards and a touchdown
last week. Cook is definitely worth the risk as a starting option in
Week 5. I'm starting Cook over: Dallas Clark (vs. KC), Scott Chandler (vs. PHI), Visanthe Shiancoe (vs. ARI) |
Jared Cook was a big time preseason sleeper but had not
lived up to the hype until Week 4 when he caught two passes for 93
yards and his first score of the season. Still, Cook has a long way
to go before I am putting him in my starting lineup. Cook has not
topped two catches in a game all year long and has not seen seven
targets in any game. I like that Cook saw six of Matt Hasselbeck's 20 passes in Week 4 and clearly he is in line
for a bigger role with Kenny Britt
out for the year. He did however only catch two of those six targets
and if he doesn't have an 80 yard touchdown, he struggles once
again. I do think he has nice value as a waiver pickup for your
teams due to his increasing role, but in Week 5 against the Steelers
(who have been average against tight ends) I would only consider
Cook a fill-in start if you are without Jason Witten. I'd rather start: Jermaine Gresham (at JAC), Brandon Pettigrew (vs. CHI), Greg Olsen (vs. NO) |
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We're all seeing Mike Williams melt down before our eyes in Tampa Bay, and Kellen Winslow has been a major disappointment. Defenses are keying in on these guys for the Bucs, taking away Josh Freeman's top two targets. That's where Preston Parker comes in: He's giving Freeman a nice slot option, and he's getting targeted plenty (21 through four games, second-most on the team). While Arrelious Benn is another receiver I'd like to see get more of a chance, Parker is the one getting most of the chances, and if defenses still prefer to contain Williams and Winslow, then Parker's going to keep getting some numbers. |
An NFL talent scout told me last year that Jacoby Jones was the best receiver on Houston's roster, and that includes Andre Johnson. Yes, I looked at him like he has two heads, but he said based on talent that Jones has the most upside, even in comparison to Johnson. Well, now we get to see if that's true, since Johnson could be out for at least three weeks with a hamstring injury. Jones has done next to nothing so far this season with just seven catches for 91 yards and no touchdowns. But he's worth adding to your roster since the Texans need him now. Even though Arian Foster and Owen Daniels will carry the offense with Johnson out, Matt Schaub still needs his receivers to make plays. Kevin Walter will play a prominent role, but Jones has the most upside. I've added him in several leagues, and if he plays up to his potential then you might consider starting him while Johnson remains out. |
Titus Young is a dynamic playmaker whose stock is on the rise as far as I am concerned. He plays in a prolific offense in Detroit and I could easily see him turning into the Lions version of Jordy Nelson as a big play receiver who can kill you out of the slot or lineup up out wide. Over the last three weeks, Titus Young is actually third on the Lions with 181 yards receiving (Brandon Pettigrew is second at 183), 20 targets and 12 catches. I like that he is averaging 15.1 yards per catch, a solid 8.6 yards per target and I think as the season goes on, he will improve on his 57.1 percent target conversion rate because he missed a lot of offseason time with Matthew Stafford due to his injury. With defenses forced to focus more and more on Calvin Johnson, Young will find himself in favorable matchups all year long. As he gets more chances to make plays and develops his rapport with Stafford, look for Young to be someone you can play more often than not as your third wide receiver over the second half of 2011. |
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